Comparison of last year's team payroll to current payroll projection

[Frobby]

Fangraphs has done its own estimate of what teams have available to spend in free agency:  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-estimate-of-every-teams-payroll-room/.   They estimate the O’s have slightly north of $40 mm to spend, which is 7th highest among the 30 teams.    I haven’t studied their methodology, so I’m not endorsing this, just passing it along.   

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs has done its own estimate of what teams have available to spend in free agency:  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-estimate-of-every-teams-payroll-room/.   They estimate the O’s have slightly north of $40 mm to spend, which is 7th highest among the 30 teams.    I haven’t studied their methodology, so I’m not endorsing this, just passing it along.   

The methodology appears to just be taking 2017 opening day payroll plus an assumed 5% payroll growth and subtracting 2018 contract obligations including Arbitration salary estimates.  Scanning the article, I'm not sure where the estimates come from.  It does say data courtesy of Cot's Contracts, but I wasn't aware of them doing arbitration estimates.

[jamalshw]

I think $40M ballpark spend is about right and I think it's enough if they're smart about it. Obviously, they could try and clear some payroll by moving Trumbo or Britton, but I ultimately think they stay put. The $40M could go a long way:

Alex Cobb $15M/year (4 years)

Tyler Chatwood $8M/year (3 years)

Jaime Garcia or Jason Vargas (since we love having a lefty) $9M/year (one or two year deal depending on which one)

Jon Jay $8M/year (two years)

I would like to think that shopping list is reasonable. I don't know if those numbers get it done, but that's my plan A to fill the holes based solely on Free Agents. There's still questions about the utility infielder spot and maybe a pen arm, but I'd fill those either internally or with minor league signings.

[wildcard]

I would not bet on the O's adding 5% to last years opening payroll.  Last years opening payroll wa 164m.  This analysis is targeting the O's at 172m   My guess is the O's don't budget that way.  

Deferred money is a big deal for the O's budget.    Last years open day payroll was 164m minus 13m or about 151m   .  They lost about 4.5m in deferrals with Hardy and Jimenez going free agent.   

The O's current payroll in about 127.5m when the buyouts of Hardy and Miley are added.   They have about 8.5m in  deferrals which put he current payroll at about 119m after deferrals.    If the O's keep the same payroll they had last year they have about 31m to spend plus what  ever money the defer in the new contracts they sign.    Does that add up to 40m?  If the O's raise the payroll about 3% then 40m would be about right for the amount to spend.  

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, jamalshw said:

I think $40M ballpark spend is about right and I think it's enough if they're smart about it. Obviously, they could try and clear some payroll by moving Trumbo or Britton, but I ultimately think they stay put. The $40M could go a long way:

Alex Cobb $15M/year (4 years)

Tyler Chatwood $8M/year (3 years)

Jaime Garcia or Jason Vargas (since we love having a lefty) $9M/year (one or two year deal depending on which one)

Jon Jay $8M/year (two years)

I would like to think that shopping list is reasonable. I don't know if those numbers get it done, but that's my plan A to fill the holes based solely on Free Agents. There's still questions about the utility infielder spot and maybe a pen arm, but I'd fill those either internally or with minor league signings.

The Cubs will out bid the O's for Cobb if the O's even put in a bid is my guess. Maddon and Hickey had him in Tampa.   And he will be a lot cheaper for the Cusb then resign Arrieta.

I agree Chatwood or Cashner are good targets for the O's

I agree  Garcia or Vargas are good target for the O's

But in each case the O's must be willing to over pay.

[Luke-OH]

On 11/10/2017 at 2:26 PM, PaulFolk said:

In Japan, yes, but we all know the talent level in that league isn't quite the same caliber as MLB. I'm very skeptical that he could hold up as a good two-way player in the majors. The season is longer, the players are better, and it's just very tough to stay sharp both as a pitcher and a hitter. There's a reason nobody has really done it since Babe Ruth.

Again, though, I'd love to see it happen. Preferably not for the Yankees.

ZIPS give Otani a .266/.328/.466 line as a hitter (basically Trey Mancini or Evan Longoria)

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, phillyOs119 said:

ZIPS give Otani a .266/.328/.466 line as a hitter (basically Trey Mancini or Evan Longoria)

But younger.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

But younger.

Yep, more upside.

So much torque, plus bat speed, big power.  The stance/bat path is a little wonky but the tools are there.

[PaulFolk]

On 11/17/2017 at 6:08 PM, phillyOs119 said:

ZIPS give Otani a .266/.328/.466 line as a hitter (basically Trey Mancini or Evan Longoria)

That's certainly better than I think he'll do. But I don't have any particular methodology other than my basic belief that pitchers can't hit.

[weams]

On 11/5/2017 at 5:12 PM, birdwatcher55 said:

Yes I question these figures, too.

You have better ones? 

[weams]

8 minutes ago, PaulFolk said:

That's certainly better than I think he'll do. But I don't have any particular methodology other than my basic belief that pitchers can't hit.

Certainly, for a pitcher, he is quite a Japanese hitter. 

[Frobby]

It will be fun to find out how good he is, depending on who signs him.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

It will be fun to find out how good he is, depending on who signs him.  

If it's the Yankees I don't think it will be a lot of fun.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If it's the Yankees I don't think it will be a lot of fun.

That’s why I qualified my statement.