Fangraphs’ Loftus: “Death, Taxes and the Orioles’ Need for Starting Pitching”

[Frobby]

Pretty good recap here of just how bad our starting pitching has been over the years, including both home grown talent and dearth of good FA signings.    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/death-taxes-and-the-orioles-need-for-starting-pitching/

As a bonus, the author points out that at this time of year, nothing much has happened and “[f]or the time being, we must content ourselves with news of minor league deals for Kevin Quackenbush and Rubby de la Rosa.”    So for those freaking out that Ryan O’Rourke was our first signing of the offseason, chill out.   There will be plenty of time to freak out later when the good pitchers start coming off the board.   

[24fps]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Pretty good recap here of just how bad our starting pitching has been over the years, including both home grown talent and dearth of good FA signings.    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/death-taxes-and-the-orioles-need-for-starting-pitching/

As a bonus, the author points out that at this time of year, nothing much has happened and “[f]or the time being, we must content ourselves with news of minor league deals for Kevin Quackenbush and Rubby de la Rosa.”    So for those freaking out that Ryan O’Rourke was our first signing of the offseason, chill out.   There will be plenty of time to freak out later when the good pitchers start coming off the board.   

Consider it spring training for that contingent.

[wildcard]

What Loftus is writing is a poplar belief.   I don't know that it is true though.   Bundy is finally in a position this year to be an ace.  He is positioned to pitch 200+ innings and the stuff he has shown is ace like if he can show more stamina.  Stamina comes from conditioning and I have great faith in Bundy's ability to condition himself.  So I think the O's have an ace.

Gausman has shown great skill and achievement in his last two 2nd halves.   He needs to do that for a full season.  We have seen that he has the ability to be a good #2.   Its up to him to make it happen.

The focus is on this season but the O's seem to have two more parts of the rotation coming fast..   1st round draft choice Hunter Harvey may start he year at Frederick but he is likely to move fast and there is a history of the O's promoting from AA.   I can't say when that will happen but he may be soon.

2nd rounder  lefty Akin is showing great progress in Arizona.  That league has talented players in it.  Maybe equal to AA.  He is not pitching a lot of innings but it should be helping his confidence.    He too could move fast.

The O's like what they see from Castro.    His arm strength is impressive.  And he is not afraid of major league hitters.  He  could move into the rotation this year.

So the O's may have a young talented rotation in the next year.   What they need is a couple of veteran middle of the rotation starters to full out the rotation this year.   Chatwood, Cashner, Vargas, Garcia are just some of the names that could fill those roles if the O's are willing to overpay to get them.  But they are probably not long term solutions.  Instead in a year or two the O's may be selling off starters instead of trying to acquire them.

Some fans are freaking about Manny, Britton, Brach and Jones being free agent after 2018.   This article seem to think the O's are throwing up the white flag if they trade Britton.   I don't know if the O's will trade him not but with the depth they have in the pen its certainly not giving up.  Rather its knowing that Boras will not let him sign a reasonable contract before he is a Free Agent and seeing if some team will give them more long term talent in exchange for Britton seems like a smart way to go about thinks about the team's assets.

The O's may extend Brach.   Why lose both Britton and Brach when Brach's extension is probably very affordable?

Manny will be a tough one to lose.  He is the most talented player on the team but the O's can lose one player and still contend especially if the starting rotation is improved and the pen stays strong.   I think Manny stays with the O's all season.  Those that think he may be traded at the deadline seem to forget how long teams stay in the race since the second wild card was added.

Jones is a matter of how he plays this coming season and how much he wants to be paid in his mid 30s.  That is a wait and see situation.  With the young outfielder - Hays Mullins, Santander and Stewart - all being at AA or above the O's have a good shot at developing their next long term outfield crew during this coming year.

In summary the O's have the money to fill the rotation in the short term and the prospects to fill-in in the long term if things break right.  That would make the comments in this article obsolete.   The talent that is flowing from the  minors will keep the payroll affordable and the team competitive.   I don't see a reason to panic   if Dan can just  find a couple  of middle to back end starters over the next few months along with a little starter depth.

 

 

 

 

[Frobby]

Classic optimism from wildcard.  Any of those things with the pitchers  could happen, but most of them probably won’t.  That’s the nature of the sport.    In any event, Akin is more than a year away from the majors.

[maybenxtyr]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Classic optimism from wildcard.  Any of those things with the pitchers  could happen, but most of them probably won’t.  That’s the nature of the sport.    In any event, Akin is more than a year away from the majors.

Right. I feel bad always being the voice of negativity with Wildcard. How many "what ifs" is enough?

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

    In any event, Akin is more than a year away from the majors.

Maybe.  Maybe not.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Maybe.  Maybe not.

I’d put the odds of Akin playing in the majors next year at 50-1 or more.   Do you disagree?

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d put the odds of Akin playing in the majors next year at 50-1 or more.   Do you disagree?

I think he starts the year at Bowie.  He arrives in better condition than he started 2017 and he has the knowledge of which of his pitches worked against the  up and coming players in the AZL.     He could be promoted by mid season if he does well.  Where he is promoted  to is the question.  Does he go to Norfolk or do the O's need him.   I am not saying I know.   

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Those are pretty big odds.  As wildcard states, he will start at Bowie.     Statistically, he looks far away to me but he has talent and he'll be in AA.    Bad starting pitching on the big team and a hot stretch by Akin?     I doubt we'll see him next year but it's not that farfetched.

He didn’t exactly blow A+ batters away (4.14 ERA) though he did have one nice stretch of games.   I think of guys like Britton (2.70 ERA in Frederick, then 2.48 in a half-season at Bowie) and Arrieta (2.87 ERA at Frederick and then a half-year of 2.59 at Bowie), and all it got them was a second half at Norfolk.   Akin wasn’t nearly the pitcher those guys were at a Frederick, so it’s just very hard for me to see how he’s going to do something at Bowie that’s going to blow management out of the water.     I realize every situation is different, but with Akin not required to be on the 40-Man for Rule 5 purposes until 2020, it would be crazy to bring him to the majors unless you were highly confident he was ready.   

[weams]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Classic optimism from wildcard.  Any of those things with the pitchers  could happen, but most of them probably won’t.  That’s the nature of the sport.    In any event, Akin is more than a year away from the majors.

I'd trade him and Mullins for 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/graveke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-

[wildcard]

I think Akin did better then his final ERA shows.  He gave up 9 earned runs in his first 2 starts.   After that he pitched 19 starts to an ERA of 3.53,    Overall his had less hits  than he had innings pitched 89 hits in 100 innings and he was a strikeout pitched with 111 Ks in 100 innings.

Then he goes to the AZ league which should be a step up in talent and puts up a line of:

2.67 ERA, 16.2 IP, 10 H, 5 BB,  13 SO,  0.92 WHIP.   He pitched only  1to 3 innings per outing so that shouldn't be weighed too  heavily but it didn't hurt him.

He looks ready to play well in Bowie.

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, weams said:

I'd trade him and Mullins for 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/graveke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-

I would not.  i think Graveman would get killed in Camden Yards and the AL East.

His career totals

Home 12-10, 3.44 ERA, 220 IP, 223 H, 1.268 WHIP

Away  10-14,  4.88 ERA, 191.2 IP,  217 H,  1.450 WHIP.

Oakland Stadium is huge.  It helped his numbers a lot.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think Akin did better then his final ERA shows.  He gave up 9 earned runs in his first 2 starts.   After that he pitched 19 starts to an ERA of 3.53,    Overall his had less hits  than he had innings pitched 89 hits in 100 innings and he was a strikeout pitched with 111 Ks in 100 innings.

Then he goes to the AZ league which should be a step up in talent and puts up a line of:

2.67 ERA, 16.2 IP, 10 H, 5 BB,  13 SO,  0.92 WHIP.   He pitched only  1to 3 innings per outing so that shouldn't be weighed too  heavily but it didn't hurt him.

He looks ready to play well in Bowie.

I agree Akin was better than his numbers at Frederick showed.    His first start was in terrible weather and it did skew his numbers.  He did miss bats at an impressive rate.   I’d say I’m 60% optimistic on him having a good year at Bowie and progressing well.    I just don’t think a guy with a 4.1 BB rate in A+ is going to shoot up to major league level that fast.    As to the AFL, he did pretty well in a relief role.    As a reminder, Jake Arrieta pitched to a 0.00 ERA in the AFL before he’d pitched a single inning of regular season MiL ball.    Akin’s numbers tell me he should be ready for AA, but they don’t tell me he’s a half season away from the majors.   And as you probably know, I’m not a big fan of rushing our prospects.   

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I agree Akin was better than his numbers at Frederick showed.    His first start was in terrible weather and it did skew his numbers.  He did miss bats at an impressive rate.   I’d say I’m 60% optimistic on him having a good year at Bowie and progressing well.    I just don’t think a guy with a 4.1 BB rate in A+ is going to shoot up to major league level that fast.    As to the AFL, he did pretty well in a relief role.    As a reminder, Jake Arrieta pitched to a 0.00 ERA in the AFL before he’d pitched a single inning of regular season MiL ball.    Akin’s numbers tell me he should be ready for AA, but they don’t tell me he’s a half season away from the majors.   And as you probably know, I’m not a big fan of rushing our prospects.   

One thing I'll say about Akin is I'm pretty confident he'll throw enough strikes.  He has a history of it, and from the looks I got, it was more nibbling than lack of control.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, phillyOs119 said:

One thing I'll say about Akin is I'm pretty confident he'll throw enough strikes.  He has a history of it, and from the looks I got, it was more nibbling than lack of control.

Good to know.    Hopefully he’ll make an adjustment in 2018.