What Do You Think was Communicated

[hoosiers]

to our owner regarding the competitiveness of this year's team?  

Do you think our front office came to the conclusion early this offseason that we could compete?  That there was a way "there" from "here".  Run up that payroll to $160+M.  Deal a reliever for a prospect SP.  Sign a FA SP.  Trade prospects for a SP (Duffy).  And then we would have a quality team in MM's walk year.  I think PA has been told for years that we would be good through MM's walk year and our competiveness could be enhanced by a generous bump in payroll.

Or do you think our front office spent the early offseason accepting the difference between us and the top teams in the AL as of the end of last season?  Then factored in payroll capacity of each team, the farm system of each team and realized we were not going to compete?  That we should be in full re-build mode?  As advocated by the national media.

I know there is a lot of venom directed at our owner and some of it (lack of international spend, apparent convoluted transaction approval process between the owner and the GM) is deserved.  But I believe there is a strong likelihood that PA might feel he has been mis-led regarding the competiveness of the 2018 team (perhaps for several years - and that the best, first step in the process forward is dealing MM).  And, while I am sure PA is capable of dealing with all sorts of new realities (including the path that deals off his superstar 3B) might not be very easy to accept given the communication of plans to compete (or "re-load" as DD said earlier this offseason).

 

[Roll Tide]

I think our owner has been price adverse for years. I understand the hesitancy to hand out 20 million per year contracts. He's done it to take care of Davis and in my opinion mainly because there really wasn't much competition. He refuses to pay market rate for free agent starting pitching. 

Now the cost of relief pitching is pushing to 10 per year....so the idea of 260 million payroll seems a reality with a couple of guys in the 20 MM per.

When I hear baseball executives "surprised" at the costs of players it really says all you need to know and why we have no chance in the free agent market except for the third tier guys similar to the ones we finished last season with.

[Rockford]

It would be interesting to know if Dan Duquette lays out the whole scenario for Angelos or if he doesn't even bother:

"Our starting pitching is awful. We need to improve it. Granted, the hope is to get to the point where we grow the arms. We have done that with Gausman and Bundy. But that's not a realistic way right now to fill out the rotation given the number of starters we need.

"Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman are not the answers. Try keeping a straight face telling Orioles fans they are going to fix last year's woes. We liked Tyler Chatwood, Mike Mikolas and Mike Fiers as realistic possibilities for this team. They're gone. I understand this organization will not pay the going prices for the top-tier guys like Darvish and Arrieta. (We tried Arrieta once anyway.) Could we pursue Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn? Neither one is the perfect answer but they are the best of an unimpressive lot. No, you say? Cobb has too much of an injury history? Lynn has been injured too and no way he will be worth his contract, you say?

"With the organization loathe to give out even 4-year contracts to starting pitchers, and the reputation of our physical exams, and, whether accurate or not, the reputation the park holds for pitchers, how can we ever get a halfway decent starting pitcher to come here? If we don't overpay by a good deal, we might as well be throwing Confederate money at them.

"With Chatwood, Fiers and Mikolas gone, and if we aren't allowed to pursue Cobb or Lynn, our only recourse left is to trade Manny Machado in hopes of getting one starting pitcher, although we're gonna insist on two."

***********

I don't know if he's right or if it's a little too far out there, but I agree with what Dan Connolly said (and it was his opinion, not from a source) on a recent podcast. They had no thoughts of trading Manny Machado but once Chatwood, Mikolas and Fiers fell by the wayside, and ownership relaying the message even Cobb and Lynn are out of their league, the only avenue Duquette saw remaining as a way to possibly improve the starting pitching was to try to trade Machado.

Because I don't think the Orioles organization suddenly woke up and realized they should have traded Britton and Machado last offseason or at the trading deadline. I also don't think the Yankees acquiring Stanton was the big factor in leading the Orioles to decide to put Machado on the block, although the timing makes it look that way and that has been a popular narrative. 

No, they wanted to hang on to their homegrown superstar as long as possible but the way the pitching played out forced Duquette's hand. And Angelos still may be denying that request to trade Manny, if Jim Bowden and Jon Heyman are correct. But it's all nothing more than speculation. Who can figure out why the Orioles operate the way they do.

[MDtransplant757]

1 hour ago, Rockford said:

It would be interesting to know if Dan Duquette lays out the whole scenario for Angelos or if he doesn't even bother:

"Our starting pitching is awful. We need to improve it. Granted, the hope is to get to the point where we grow the arms. We have done that with Gausman and Bundy. But that's not a realistic way right now to fill out the rotation given the number of starters we need.

"Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman are not the answers. Try keeping a straight face telling Orioles fans they are going to fix last year's woes. We liked Tyler Chatwood, Mike Mikolas and Mike Fiers as realistic possibilities for this team. They're gone. I understand this organization will not pay the going prices for the top-tier guys like Darvish and Arrieta. (We tried Arrieta once anyway.) Could we pursue Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn? Neither one is the perfect answer but they are the best of an unimpressive lot. No, you say? Cobb has too much of an injury history? Lynn has been injured too and no way he will be worth his contract, you say?

"With the organization loathe to give out even 4-year contracts to starting pitchers, and the reputation of our physical exams, and, whether accurate or not, the reputation the park holds for pitchers, how can we ever get a halfway decent starting pitcher to come here? If we don't overpay by a good deal, we might as well be throwing Confederate money at them.

"With Chatwood, Fiers and Mikolas gone, and if we aren't allowed to pursue Cobb or Lynn, our only recourse left is to trade Manny Machado in hopes of getting one starting pitcher, although we're gonna insist on two."

***********

I don't know if he's right or if it's a little too far out there, but I agree with what Dan Connolly said (and it was his opinion, not from a source) on a recent podcast. They had no thoughts of trading Manny Machado but once Chatwood, Mikolas and Fiers fell by the wayside, and ownership relaying the message even Cobb and Lynn are out of their league, the only avenue Duquette saw remaining as a way to possibly improve the starting pitching was to try to trade Machado.

Because I don't think the Orioles organization suddenly woke up and realized they should have traded Britton and Machado last offseason or at the trading deadline. I also don't think the Yankees acquiring Stanton was the big factor in leading the Orioles to decide to put Machado on the block, although the timing makes it look that way and that has been a popular narrative. 

No, they wanted to hang on to their homegrown superstar as long as possible but the way the pitching played out forced Duquette's hand. And Angelos still may be denying that request to trade Manny, if Jim Bowden and Jon Heyman are correct. But it's all nothing more than speculation. Who can figure out why the Orioles operate the way they do.

Dysfunction either works it way to the top or starts at the top. It's been the latter since 1993

[joeyc]

What should be communicated is that we have zero shot at competing in this division and we need to have a fire sale with all the pending free agents while we can get something for them Also it should be communicated that we need to sign Schoop NOW to a long term extension or trade him, while his value is at his highest point. That's what should be communicated. We need to rebuild like the Astros did. It's our only chance to compete. We have to get Major league ready young talent. There are only about 6 teams in all of MLB that can CONSISTENTLY YEARLY compete for a world series, The rest of the teams are on trial basis'. In a few years when Altuve, Correa, etc. are ready for new contracts, they won't be Astros, I promise you that. Houston will not be able to afford them. Major League Baseball has a real problem with the way things are structured and with the way the market prices are going through the roof. If they don't do something to fix it, the interest in MLB is going to die. Just like it's becoming in the NBA. Nobody cares about it anymore unless your fans of a few teams.

[Redskins Rick]

We also do not know how much of a role that Peter's son has within the organization.

He appears over the years to be more engaged as the public face of ownership, how is that working within the inner circle?

[Frobby]

If the point of this thread is to shift blame off of Angelos and onto Duquette, I’m not buying it.    No matter what was communicated, a 10-year old could see:

1.   In 2016, the team made the wild card by the skin of its teeth with a closer who was perfect and with a healthy Tillman to complement Gausman and Bundy. There was no room for slippage.

2.    In 2017 the pitching was a disaster, and our rotation was going to have three open slots.    On the plus side, the departing starters were paid about $32 mm, so there was some money available to address this.

3.   Trying to solve the pitching woes solely through trades wasn’t going to work, because when you trade you weaken yourself in some other area, and the O’s margin of error is so thin that we couldn’t really afford to weaken the lineup or the bullpen to bolster the rotation, or to weaken the farm system.    

Hence PA really shouldn’t have needed anyone to tell him that his choice was simple: (1) spend some significant cash to upgrade the pitching, or (2) wave the white flag and rebuild.    

Watching us hem and haw all the way to Christmas is pretty nauseating, and I don’t blame that on a lack of communication.   

[hoosiers]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If the point of this thread is to shift blame off of Angelos and onto Duquette, I’m not buying it.    No matter what was communicated, a 10-year old could see:

1.   In 2016, the team made the wild card by the skin of its teeth with a closer who was perfect and with a healthy Tillman to complement Gausman and Bundy. There was no room for slippage.

2.    In 2017 the pitching was a disaster, and our rotation was going to have three open slots.    On the plus side, the departing starters were paid about $32 mm, so there was some money available to address this.

3.   Trying to solve the pitching woes solely through trades wasn’t going to work, because when you trade you weaken yourself in some other area, and the O’s margin of error is so thin that we couldn’t really afford to weaken the lineup or the bullpen to bolster the rotation, or to weaken the farm system.    

Hence PA really shouldn’t have needed anyone to tell him that his choice was simple: (1) spend some significant cash to upgrade the pitching, or (2) wave the white flag and rebuild.    

Watching us hem and haw all the way to Christmas is pretty nauseating, and I don’t blame that on a lack of communication.   

So you are saying the direction of the team should be self-evident to the OWNER?  And that the path the organization should follow or operate toward stems from the observations of the owner - in this case our litigation attorney owner?

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

So you are saying the direction of the team should be self-evident to the OWNER?  And that the path the organization should follow or operate toward stems from the observations of the owner - in this case our litigation attorney owner?

I expect the owner to be able to see what even the most casual fan can see.   If Angelos won’t spend on pitching but also won’t act decisively on a rebuild, there’s not much Duquette can do about it.    And there’s not much point in speculating what’s been communicated between them, because nobody here has any earthly idea.     But I don’t see how PA could have been misled about facts that are as plain as the nose on his face.    

[Hank Scorpio]

10 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

So you are saying the direction of the team should be self-evident to the OWNER?  And that the path the organization should follow or operate toward stems from the observations of the owner - in this case our litigation attorney owner?

I don’t want to speak for Frobby, but even if you half-assedly pay attention, you can see that we finished in last place last year and the two teams who are likely to be atop the division are relatively young and haven’t gotten any weaker. 

For me it’s a simple question of what is the likelyhood of competing for a wild card considering the strength of the Red Sox and Yankees. Good chance at least one of the wild card teams comes from this division. 

My opinion, going back to last off-season is that at best they had a punchers chance. Yes, they have been fortunate over the last 5 years and outperformed their pythag. Bullpen performance was a big part of that and bullpen performance is typically high variance. They are a slow, free swinging, all or nothing offense... middle of the road at best. Their pitching rotation is a dumpster fire. 

This “reload” slash “rebuild” slash whatever semantical term you want to use SHOULD have happened last off-season. It really sucks that you have to be that proactive, but it’s way too fine of a line to tiptoe when your leverage can be dictated by ONE BS salary grab trade by an ascending team in your division. Duquette doesn’t really have a heck of a lot of leverage and my guess is he’s finding that out. 

At this point, wait for the deadline and see if you can fleece someone for a bunch of kids that are a couple years away. Your options are whittling away and it’s a shame they can’t do an honest appraisal of their team relative to their competition... because this was totally avoidable.

Its as if they’re more concerned about the reputation of the owner than the organization’s overall competitive sustainability.

Again, its a shame.

[Hank Scorpio]

As an appendix to my post, here are starting pitching rankings for 2016. 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/year/2016/split/127/type/expanded

[jtschrei]

Well. I never saw us doing a full rebuild. I believe that Buck has had Peter's ear the entire time he's been here. Buck is never going to recommend trading his guys -- Jones, Davis, Britton, Machado. 

So, we'll do what we do every single offseason. Hem and haw, pick up a few minor league guys between now and Feb. 15, and sign whoever is left over in the FA pitcher pile at the end of February. My guess is that it will be some combination of Tillman/Gonzales type dudes. I would be shocked if Buck lets Tillman get away to another team. DD needs to find some gems to fill out the rotation. Hopefully he gets lucky. 

Hey, you just need to be around .500 in July to be in it. Can Buck piece it together?

 

 

[Hank Scorpio]

5 minutes ago, jtschrei said:

Well. I never saw us doing a full rebuild. I believe that Buck has had Peter's ear the entire time he's been here. Buck is never going to recommend trading his guys -- Jones, Davis, Britton, Machado. 

So, we'll do what we do every single offseason. Hem and haw, pick up a few minor league guys between now and Feb. 15, and sign whoever is left over in the FA pitcher pile at the end of February. My guess is that it will be some combination of Tillman/Gonzales type dudes. I would be shocked if Buck lets Tillman get away to another team. DD needs to find some gems to fill out the rotation. Hopefully he gets lucky. 

Hey, you just need to be around .500 in July to be in it. Can Buck piece it together?

 

 

I am horrified, but you are probably right.

[hoosiers]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I expect the owner to be able to see what even the most casual fan can see.   If Angelos won’t spend on pitching but also won’t act decisively on a rebuild, there’s not much Duquette can do about it.    And there’s not much point in speculating what’s been communicated between them, because nobody here has any earthly idea.     But I don’t see how PA could have been misled about facts that are as plain as the nose on his face.    

So when DD arrived here after all that losing, are you saying it was evident to PA that we were ready to win and it was PA who directed DD to go sign players like Jason Hammel to compete?  It is odd to me that many folks want an owner not involved in baseball decisions, yet some here post that the direction of the team/personnel decisions should flow from what should be obvious to the owner ...... ?

I think for a long time our front office believed we could compete in 2018 and built the team toward that.  And likely communicated that to the owner.

Somewhere along the lines in the past three to six months, folks here are saying it should be obvious that we are not competitive and should likely enter a rebuild phase.  Yet we entered this offseason with designs on landing FAs plus attempting to trade for guys like Duffy.  Are those actions the result of an owner directing his front office to put as competitiveness a product on the major league team as possible (and this direction might be completely opposite the recommendation of our front office that it was time for a rebuild starting with MM)?  Or a front office recommending that we could compete and asking ownership for permission to deal top prospects and ramp up payroll?  

[spiritof66]

This team's overall strategy can be summed up as follows. The guy who calls the shots has as his number one goal winning now. His number two goal is winning now. Number three is . . . well, you get the idea. 

I'm sure a lot of things about the competitive difficulties faced by the Orioles were said to the team's owner, but I doubt much was communicated -- in the sense of cutting through his stubborn hide, massive ego and dense brain --  about how bad things might be or about the alternatives to trying to win in 2017.  I am sure he's been told that the team isn't going anywhere without significantly improving the rotation. It appears that he expected that most of the mission could be accomplished by trading Manny for two quality starters --  but that's not happening.  He can't bring himself to question his historical unwillingness to sign a starter to a long-term deal. The team's effort to sign free-agent starters apparently has been put on hold while the Manny discussions continue. 

That path has put the team in a deeper hole, and it gets a little deeper every day. But I'm pretty sure that having the team's chances for making the playoffs dip from 5% to 2% (I'm making up the numbers) won't be enough to alter the strategy. When the season starts, every team is tied, and there's a non-zero possibility that , with or without Manny, a rotation of Bundy, Gausman, Tillman, Ynoa, and whatever a Manny rade or the ML dumpster yields (I could hardly bear to type that), with Harvey waiting in the wings, will be good enough.

I don't expect a change in the strategy. Maybe if the Orioles stumble out of the gate, and lose 35 of their first 50 games, the owner will understand what he's wrought -- though he'll never accept an iota of the responsibility for it -- and we can start turning this thing around. Maybe.