What are the odds of a modest Chris Davis comeback in 2018?

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Frobby said:

I’m very skeptical.     I’m not skeptical that Redskins Rick heard it, but I doubt what he heard is true.    

Same.

[Can_of_corn]

Unless Davis can fix his called third strike issue any gains in 2018 will be marginal.

[ChuckS]

I'm more bullish on Trumbo returning to career norms in 2018 than Davis. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I'm more bullish on Trumbo returning to career norms in 2018 than Davis. 

 

Shorter trip.

[Luke-OH]

8 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I'm more bullish on Trumbo returning to career norms in 2018 than Davis. 

 

Another guy whose two best seasons were the seasons he pulled the ball the most.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I'm more bullish on Trumbo returning to career norms in 2018 than Davis. 

 

Yes, me too.    FWIW, here are the three projections for Trumbo:

Steamer:  .254/.312/.478, 30 HR 71 RBI.

ZiPS: .247/.301/.470, 31 HR 82 RBI

Marcel: .247/.305/.456, 28 HR 73 RBI.

Last year: .234/.289/.397, 23 HR 65 RBI.

[LookitsPuck]

First 27 games: .226/.330/.376 .707 OPS, 40 SO

2nd 27 games: .238/.322/.545 .866 OPS, 47 SO

3rd 27 games: .185/.303/.370 .672 OPS, 37 SO

4th 27 games: .238/.308/.448 .755 OPS, 42 SO

Last 20 games: .169/.270/.338 .609 OPS, 29 SO

I mean, if you chop the season up into 5ths....the only part that stands out to me is the period right before he got hurt. Thereafter it was pretty dismal save for a short stretch.

I don't really know how optimistic I can really be. If we look at his strikeout rate from his first full season with the O's (2012) through 2017, it goes like this:

• 2012: 30%
• 2013: 30%
• 2014: 33%
• 2015: 31%
• 2016: 33%
• 2017: 37%

Let's look at his line drive percentage over the years:

• 2012: 23.2%
• 2013: 21.9%
• 2014: 24.6%
• 2015: 24.7%
• 2016: 19.8%
• 2017: 23.5%

And fly ball percentage:

• 2012: 37.5%
• 2013: 45.7%
• 2014: 40.9%
• 2015: 43.5%
• 2016: 43.7%
• 2017: 39.8%

So the 2 things that really standout to me: a 5 point increase in strikeouts over his career norms. And a below average representation of fly balls. His career GB/FB ratio is 0.85. In 2017 it was 0.92. 

Digging a little deeper, if we look at his career averages for soft/medium/hard hit balls, it looks like this:

• Career: 11.9% / 50.7% / 37.4%
• 2017: 12.8% / 45.7% / 41.5%

That doesn't even standout to me. Those 2017 numbers are nearly identical to his amazing 2013 season (12.2% / 46.4% / 41.3%).

If we take his 2013 seasons and put together his strikeout rate, line drive percentage, groundball rate, fly ball rate and some batted ball metrics...things start to stand out a bit:

• 2013
  • SO: 30%
  • LD: 21.9%
  • FB: 45.7%
  • GB Rate: 0.71
  • Soft: 12.2%
  • Medium: 46.4%
  • Hard: 41.3%
• 2017
  • SO rate: 37%
  • LD: 23.5%
  • FB: 39.8%
  • GB Rate: 0.92
  • Soft: 12.8%
  • Medium: 45.7%
  • Hard: 41.5%

To me we're seeing (over the course of 5 years) an increase his ground ball rate and a significantly increased strikeout rate. On paper that just seems that he's not seeing things correctly. He's probably getting a bigger diet of breaking pitches which he's just rolling over because he's not picking up the spin on the ball. His batted ball rates don't really seem out of the ordinary. No dramatic drop offs that I can see.

So, the plus side? The power is still there. There was *some* performance prior to his oblique injury. Davis takes care of himself. So basically I can see some rebounding here. My main question mark is him recognizing pitches. Why has that dropped off so dramatically? Bat speed seems fine. Power is there. What gives?

[weams]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

In 2017, Chris Davis batted .215/.309/.423 with 26 HR and 61 RBI and struck out in 37.2% of his plate appearances.

The three major projection systems that have published projections so far have him making a bit of a comeback in 2018:

Steamer: .227/.331/.479, 35 HR 88 RBI 34.3% K rate

ZiPS: .223/.318/.459, 31 HR 81 RBI 36.2% K rate

Marcel: .231/.330/.471, 30 HR 71 RBI 32.9% K rate

None of those projections would have us doing cartwheels, or justify a $23 mm salary, but they’d still represent a considerable improvement over last year.    What do you think — is it reasonable to hope for this level of improvement?

Oh, I think if he gets hypnosis or counseling, he may do better. There is obviously some quick twitch, synapse, Chuck Knoblauch/Steve Sax/Mackey Sasser issue at hand here. 

[OFFNY]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

 

Let's get him back on the Adderall.  Increased production and then when he gets busted we don't have to pay him. Yuck, yuck.

 

o

 

Unless MLB approves it, like they had for the 2012 and 2013 seasons, and again (for Lisdexamfetamine) prior to the 2015 season.

 

o

[Es4M11]

Davis is still using vyvanse(sp?), right? I think what we are seeing from Davis is the negative side effects of long term use of amphetamines catching up to  him. Blurry vision - watches a lot of called 3rd strikes, seemingly guesses at the plate a lot; lack of emotion - doesn't seem to care about his failings on the baseball diamond; sluggishness - lost bat speed and foot speed, although could be contributed to age.

Just my opinion, so take it with a big grain of salt.

[Ohfan67]

4 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

I wish, back in 2001, I was watching ESPN televised game, instead of HTS, and they were playing with their new radar gun measuring bat speed, and its what the announcers told us the audience.

This wasn't SOB, speed off the bat, either, which ESPN's hittracker does now.

 

I remember this too on ESPN broadcast(s). He definitely had the highest tracked speed during that game and the highest speed ESPN had tracked that year. Now who knows if that estimate was good, how many players had been tracked via Sunday night baseball coverage, etc. But Redskin Rick’s memory is dead on. 

[ThomasTomasz]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t believe he has an eyesight problem, at least in the conventional sense.    That’s way too easy to test and correct.    If that had been the problem, I’m sure it would have been dealt with during the season.    

Now, if he’s having trouble tracking pitches thrown at 75-100 mph, that’s a different issue.     I’m not sure there’s much one can do to correct that.    I remember that when Davis was busted for using Adderall without a TUE, he said he’d been having trouble focusing on the ball.   It was unclear to me whether he meant concentration-type focus or seeing-type focus.    He got a TUE for Vyvanse before the 2015 season, which certainly seemed to work fine for him then.  So I don’t really think that’s the issue, either.

A better explanation may be that Davis has lost some bat speed and is having to make decisions about whether to swing earlier in the flight of the ball, and is just guessing rather than really identifying the pitches and their likely locations.   

Given our reputation for extension physicals and medical evaluations, I agree that it probably isn't an eyesight problem.  That's the Oriole "fan" in me if you will.  

The Redskins fan in me, however, remembers Carlos "Stone Hands" Rogers, who was one of the better cover corners in the NFL but he could never pull down an interception if his life depended on it.  He signed a contract with the 49ers, they gave him an eye exam and corrected his eyesight, and he pulls down six in one year.  

 

[Moose Milligan]

About the same odds of them dealing Machado and Britton before the season starts.

[weams]

13 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Unless MLB approves it, like they had for the 2012 and 2013 seasons, and again (for Lisdexamfetamine) prior to the 2015 season.

 

o

I'd be ok with the lifetime suspension. 

[foxfield]

35 minutes ago, weams said:

I'd be ok with the lifetime suspension. 

Harsh!  Lol...

So you are definitely hoping Tejada stops by spring training with some B-12???