Does signing Vargas, Cashner and (Tillman to an incentive contract) make the O's a wild card contender?

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I wish I had some of the same optimism.   Nowhere in any of this 10 do I see anything about anyone getting injured or not over performing or regressing.   And assumptions that mediocre starters like Cashman and Vargas will be another year older and stay "just average" is the same assumptions that optimists made about Jimenez, Miley and Gallardo.   I believe Chris Tillman is physically functionally impaired and could very well be  done with his career.   Manny could look forward or get in a funk about losing and have a regressed season because he gets ahead of himself.   Davis and Trumbo could be the same or worse than they were last year.   Not since the the bad years have I seen our starting pitching prospects as dismal as they stand on this day, right now.  And adding Cashner (who is Gallardo redux, imho) and Vargas (unlikely) does not get improve them near enough to contend even for a second wild card, in my view.    

Obviously they are going to do something and try to "contend" in 2018.   But this fan is not supporting any moves in that direction except for trading Machado and any other pieces that are due to be free agents and engaging in a true rebuild.  

Depressing.  It's a bummer for you to have such an O's outlook.

[mdbdotcom]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Depressing.  It's a bummer for you to have such an O's outlook.

To me, his outlook seems a lot closer to reality than yours . I see no rational basis for your optimism. It's a pipe dream.

[wildcard]

Just now, mdbdotcom said:

To me, his outlook seems a lot closer to reality than yours . I see no rational basis for your optimism. It's a pipe dream.

Still a bummer.    Since there are a lot of players yet to sign I would rather be positive.  

[Babypowder]

20 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I wish I had some of the same optimism.   Nowhere in any of this 10 do I see anything about anyone getting injured or not over performing or regressing.   And assumptions that mediocre starters like Cashman and Vargas will be another year older and stay "just average" is the same assumptions that optimists made about Jimenez, Miley and Gallardo.   I believe Chris Tillman is physically functionally impaired and could very well be  done with his career.   Manny could look forward or get in a funk about losing and have a regressed season because he gets ahead of himself.   Davis and Trumbo could be the same or worse than they were last year.   Not since the the bad years have I seen our starting pitching prospects as dismal as they stand on this day, right now.  And adding Cashner (who is Gallardo redux, imho) and Vargas (unlikely) does not get improve them near enough to contend even for a second wild card, in my view.    

Obviously they are going to do something and try to "contend" in 2018.   But this fan is not supporting any moves in that direction except for trading Machado and any other pieces that are due to be free agents and engaging in a true rebuild.  

Wildly unrealistic optimism is kind of what wildcard does around here. You've been overwhelmingly positive though yourself previously. This is a surprising turn.

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

Wildly unrealistic optimism is kind of what wildcard does around here. You've been overwhelmingly positive though yourself previously. This is a surprising turn.

The only part of what I have posted that may be wildly optimism is that the O's sign Vargas, Cashner and Tillman.  And I did not say they would.  I said if.

[Babypowder]

27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The only part of what I have posted that may be wildly optimism is that the O's sign Vargas, Cashner and Tillman.  And I did not say they would.  I said if.

In your wildly optimistic opinion, sure.

[mdbdotcom]

44 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The only part of what I have posted that may be wildly optimism is that the O's sign Vargas, Cashner and Tillman.  And I did not say they would.  I said if.

It's a bummer that you think signing those three bums is wildly optimistic.

[El Gordo]

There are no sure things in baseball even the idea that the O's will suck this season. Some here would say we're doomed even if we signed Darvish, Cobb, and Lynn, because the black hole of Trumbp/Davis will suck all the air out. IMO it's reasonable to think Cashner , Vargas and Tillman gives us a shot with a number of if's. The biggest would be if every one has career average seasons and if we have luck with injuries.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I don't want Vargas he had a 6+ era in the second half of 2017.  This looks like a Gallardo redux to me.  

The front office needs to investigate why Vargas turned into Tillman by the end of the season if they even think about extending an offer.  

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

In your wildly optimistic opinion, sure.

Do you remember the O's winning 89 games in 2016?  Many of the same player are still with the team.

[Babypowder]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you remember the O's winning 89 games in 2016?  Many of the same player are still with the team.

Many of them are older, clearly declining, hurt, and/or not with the team any longer. Other teams are also better. 2016 is no longer relevant to 2018.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Babypowder said:

Many of them are older, clearly declining, hurt, and/or not with the team any longer. Other teams are also better. 2016 is no longer relevant to 2018.

O'Day is the only player over 32.  Ages 27-32 are prime years for players.  2016 was only one season ago.  I agree that the Yanks are better.   Red Sox are a good team.

[Babypowder]

Just now, wildcard said:

O'Day is the only player over 32.  Ages 27-32 are prime years for players.  2016 was only one season ago.  I agree that the Yanks are better.   Red Sox are a good team.

Literally every player is older than they were in 2016. It has clearly impacted a few of them. Make the argument that Davis and Jones are not declining. I also expect we've seen the last of Trumbo resembling anything valuable as well, but it's too early to say that definitively. Chris Tillman contributed in 2016, his arm doesn't work anymore. Britton may not pitch for a majority of the season, he was historically good in 2016.

[wildcard]

30 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

Literally every player is older than they were in 2016. It has clearly impacted a few of them. Make the argument that Davis and Jones are not declining. I also expect we've seen the last of Trumbo resembling anything valuable as well, but it's too early to say that definitively. Chris Tillman contributed in 2016, his arm doesn't work anymore. Britton may not pitch for a majority of the season, he was historically good in 2016.

Meanwhile Bundy, Gausman, Schoop, Mancini,  and Givens are all getting better.   Bleier is helping the pen.   Hays, Sisco, Mullins, Stewart and Santander are all young and improving.  Some should be helpful this year. Castro is a real find in the rotation or as a reliever.  Harvey could be a future top half of the rotation guy.

If you want to look for bad things you can find them but there is plenty the is good thing happening too.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

There are many things that make me believe that if the O's could sign Vargas, Cashner and Tillman they would contend.

1) Miley, Jimenez, Tillman and Hellickson combined for a 6.61 ERA in 445 IP.   If Cashner, Vargas and Tillman are just average they who be:

Cashner  4.26 ERA in 161 IP

Vargas  4.17ERA in 179 IP

Tillman 5.12  ERA in 146 IP

That would be a 4.48 ERA in 486 IP.   That could mean 2.18 ERA drop on the games they pitch.  

Where are these projections coming from?    If achieved we’d save about 116 runs which is worth 11-12 wins.    So yes, that would put us in the hunt.    But those projections are very optimistic IMO.