Does signing Vargas, Cashner and (Tillman to an incentive contract) make the O's a wild card contender?

[Babypowder]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Meanwhile Bundy, Gausman, Schoop, Mancini,  and Givens are all getting better.   Bleier is helping the pen.   Hays, Sisco, Mullins, Stewart and Santander are all young and improving.  Some should be helpful this year. Castro is a real find in the rotation or as a reliever.  Harvey could be a future top half of the rotation guy.

If you want to look for bad things you can find them but there is plenty the is good thing happening too.

You honestly don’t see how this take is aggressively optimistic? 

Bundy threw more innings but objectively he wasn’t more effective. Gausman was worse. Players “getting better” is always an optimistic take. Counting on Bleier or Castro for anything is premature and clearly optimistic. Harvey hasn’t shown he can stay healthy for any significant amount of time. Again, expecting anything from him is optimistic.

I’m not saying it’s a bad thing, in fact it helps the board to have people pouring orange kool aid everywhere. I’m just pointing it out, it’s ok to own it.

 

[Aristotelian]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Man the Rays get no respect around these parts.

They lost Longo otherwise I would have us even with them as well.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

They lost Longo otherwise I would have us even with them as well.

They did finish five games up on the O's last year.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

You honestly don’t see how this take is aggressively optimistic? 

Bundy threw more innings but objectively he wasn’t more effective. Gausman was worse. Players “getting better” is always an optimistic take. Counting on Bleier or Castro for anything is premature and clearly optimistic. Harvey hasn’t shown he can stay healthy for any significant amount of time. Again, expecting anything from him is optimistic.

I’m not saying it’s a bad thing, in fact it helps the board to have people pouring orange kool aid everywhere. I’m just pointing it out, it’s ok to own it.

 

I own the cyanide breath mints.

 

[Aristotelian]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They did finish five games up on the O's last year.

Yeah but if we added two replacement level pitchers while getting rid of Ubaldo and Miley, and the lose Longo, I will give us the benefit of the doubt. But if you want to argue we are even on paper with the Rays too, I would not really disagree.

[Number5]

2 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

Lefties tend to pitch a little longer than righties

Is this true?  I've never heard that left-handedness promoted longevity.  I wonder why.  Do you have a source for this.

[tntoriole]

6 hours ago, Babypowder said:

Wildly unrealistic optimism is kind of what wildcard does around here. You've been overwhelmingly positive though yourself previously. This is a surprising turn.

I do swing from pole to pole.  lol.  If I didn’t have any hidden optimism, what would be the point of being a fan.  But I would sure like to see some day when and if we have a young, analytic progressive dynamo of a GM and an ownership that is engaged in building the best teams possible. 

[SteveA]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think the O's should sign Tillman to a 2m base salary plus incentives to 10m.   If he believes in himself he should take it.   If Tillman hurt in shoulder and what it needs is rest and rehab this off season then the could come back strong.   If his injury is something he can't overcome then he will not have a good 2018.    In that case the O's would be where you suggest and use Castro or Cortes as the 5th starter.   I think Tillman is worth a 2m risk.

Are contracts that incentive laden even allowed by the CBA?

I know you can't put incentives for stats like ERA, wins, etc.   They have to be usage based I believe (innings pitched).   And maybe award based?   (Cy Young, etc).

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

They did finish five games up on the O's last year.

Longoria is gone.  What have they done to improve?   We've added negative-Miley, negative-Gallardo, and negative-Ubaldo.   We might be one of the most improved teams in baseball.

Check.  And.  Mate.

[OFFNY]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

 

I think that the Orioles should sign Tillman to a $2M base salary, plus incentives to $10M. If he believes in himself, he should take it. If Tillman hurt in shoulder, and what it needs is rest and rehab this off season, then the could come back strong. If his injury is something he can't overcome, then he will not have a good 2018. In that case, the Orioles would be where you suggest and use Castro or Cortes as the 5th starter. I think Tillman is worth a $2M risk.

 

 

 

18 minutes ago, SteveA said:

 

Are contracts that incentive laden even allowed by the CBA ???

I know you can't put incentives for stats like ERA, Wins, etc. They have to be usage based I believe (innings pitched). And maybe award based?  (Cy Young Award, etc.)

 

o

 

That reminds me of when the 49ers signed Rickey Jackson to a one-year contract for $162,000 in 1994 ........ with a bonus of $838,000 if the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl (they did.)

Talk about an incentive to be a team player !!!

 

 

49ers Find It Cozy Under Cap: NFL: Financial Maneuvers bring Team Immediate Return on Investment with Berth in Super Bowl XXIX

(Associated Press)

http://articles.latimes.com/1995-01-20/sports/sp-22159_1_super-bowl-xxix/2

 

o

[Can_of_corn]

Andrew Cashner's curiously good 2017 season:

 

 

[mdbdotcom]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

Is this true?  I've never heard that left-handedness promoted longevity.  I wonder why.  Do you have a source for this.

No data, as far as I know. Announcers on O's games used to talk about it years ago. It takes lefties longer to make it to the big leagues and the ones who make it stay longer. Have no idea if it's true.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, mdbdotcom said:

No data, as far as I know. Announcers on O's games used to talk about it years ago. It takes lefties longer to make it to the big leagues and the ones who make it stay longer. Have no idea if it's true.

Makes sense since the talent pool is significantly smaller.

[Babypowder]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Andrew Cashner's curiously good 2017 season:

 

 

Thats solid work from that redditor.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, SteveA said:

Are contracts that incentive laden even allowed by the CBA?

I know you can't put incentives for stats like ERA, wins, etc.   They have to be usage based I believe (innings pitched).   And maybe award based?   (Cy Young, etc).

Incentive Clause

Definition

Incentives in contracts allow players to earn additional money by achieving certain predetermined benchmarks. Major League Baseball's Basic Agreement prohibits incentives from being awarded based on statistical achievement. Thus, playing time is the near-universal means by which players receive incentives. Pitchers with incentive-laden contracts typically trigger the incentives based on number of innings pitched, number of games started, number of relief appearances, number of games finished, etc. Hitters will most commonly trigger incentives based on plate appearances. Some contracts also contain roster bonuses, which reward a player simply for staying on the active roster for a certain number of days.

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/incentive-clause