Orioles Farm: Good, Bad, or Ugly

[Luke-OH]

Check out my new article.  Quick read on the state of the O's system.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/02/10/orioles-farm-system-good-bad-ugly/

 

 

[theobird]

Nice work Luke! Yes, the MiL depth is exciting to me. I just wish we would smell the coffee, makes some trades to add to that depth. I certainly appreciate your efforts in bringing this kind of information to the board.

[pastorfan]

Good work, my friend. I honestly do not possess the knowledge of other team's farm systems to be able to render any kind of legitimate comparison of where we stand overall. But it is nice to know that we have some potential solid players on the way.

[Rene88]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Check out my new article.  Quick read on the state of the O's system.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/02/10/orioles-farm-system-good-bad-ugly/

 

 

Great work as always. The organizational philosophy to avoid international talent has cost this franchise dearly IMO. 

I still like David Hess as an under the radar talent and Reyes has the tools...

[Frobby]

Great synthesis of the major publications with your own take.    Overall, I’m happy with where our system is right now except for two things:

1.   Lack of pitching prospects who have pitched at the higher levels of the minors.    We have lots of intriguing names, but of the ones listed nationally only Scott has reached AA, and he’s a reliever who still has a very risky profile IMO.

2.    Almost no prospects for the middle infield, except Adam Hall who is a pretty unknown quantity at this point and minimum 3 full years away.

Funny, I always have the feeling this time of year that this is a watershed year for our farm system.    We have lots of guys who could be nationally recognized prospects by the end of the year — or could fall off the radar.     And, for now, we have a good draft position from which to add to what we have already.   Hopefully we can find some nuggets.  

[bobmc]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Great synthesis of the major publications with your own take.    Overall, I’m happy with where our system is right now except for two things:

1.   Lack of pitching prospects who have pitched at the higher levels of the minors.    We have lots of intriguing names, but of the ones listed nationally only Scott has reached AA, and he’s a reliever who still has a very risky profile IMO.

2.    Almost no prospects for the middle infield, except Adam Hall who is a pretty unknown quantity at this point and minimum 3 full years away.

Funny, I always have the feeling this time of year that this is a watershed year for our farm system.    We have lots of guys who could be nationally recognized prospects by the end of the year — or could fall off the radar.     And, for now, we have a good draft position from which to add to what we have already.   Hopefully we can find some nuggets.  

The next "Stick" Belanger?  

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Great synthesis of the major publications with your own take.    Overall, I’m happy with where our system is right now except for two things:

1.   Lack of pitching prospects who have pitched at the higher levels of the minors.    We have lots of intriguing names, but of the ones listed nationally only Scott has reached AA, and he’s a reliever who still has a very risky profile IMO.

2.    Almost no prospects for the middle infield, except Adam Hall who is a pretty unknown quantity at this point and minimum 3 full years away.

Funny, I always have the feeling this time of year that this is a watershed year for our farm system.    We have lots of guys who could be nationally recognized prospects by the end of the year — or could fall off the radar.     And, for now, we have a good draft position from which to add to what we have already.   Hopefully we can find some nuggets.  

Those are valid points.

The Delmarva and Frederick rotations are going to be exciting in 2018.  Lots of guys who could jump up lists, little to no non-prospect filler for once.

[joelala]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Check out my new article.  Quick read on the state of the O's system.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/02/10/orioles-farm-system-good-bad-ugly/

 

 

Great article, man!  I love the perspective you provide as to where the farm system stands relative to other years in which we've had a higher profile (top 10-15 ML) prospect.

My question is:  Who in the lower levels do you think, if you HAD to choose, has the most realistic shot at developing into one of those high profile, high impact prospects?  Or is it too much of a crap-shoot to even predict? 

Also, the derivation of opinions about Hays ranking amongst BA and the other publications is interesting.  Where would you rank him?

Thanks!

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, joelala said:

Great article, man!  I love the perspective you provide as to where the farm system stands relative to other years in which we've had a higher profile (top 10-15 ML) prospect.

My question is:  Who in the lower levels do you think, if you HAD to choose, has the most realistic shot at developing into one of those high profile, high impact prospects?  Or is it too much of a craps-hoot to even predict? 

Also, the derivation of opinions about Hays ranking amongst BA and the other publications is interesting.  Where would you rank him?

Thanks!

My Hays ranking is in the article, I'd have him somewhere around #40. The differing opinions from what I've read, seen, heard are in regards to whether he's too aggressive at the plate and how good he'll be defensively. If you think he's only average in RF and will have some K/BB issues due to his approach, then he looks like an average (2 WAR) RF which would put him within that large tier of players from #80-160 or so and he'd probably be at the top of that range due to his proximity to the majors. I think that's close to his floor, but I understand how people could reasonably have that take on him.

Two easiest picks for guys that could jump into a top 50 in baseball range are DL Hall and Hunter Harvey.  Lowther I think could jump into a top 100 next year, but he'll really have to perform, because prospect lists love velocity and that's not his game. I think he'll be very good though. Bishop has buzz and if his stuff ticks up, he could be right there too.  Hanifee needs to develop an out pitch, but I wouldn't be surprised if he comes out and dominates the Sally league with improved velocity. Sparks and Adam Hall have plenty of upside and could jump if they preform.  Baumann has great stuff, if the command improves, he could be in the top 100 conversation. If Jomar Reyes has a good healthy year in AA he'll likely be on a top 100 list.  It is a crap shoot though, especially for the guys who haven't played above short season ball.  Full season baseball separates prospects from suspects.

[HbgOsFan]

Probably not the best place to reply, but I just want to thank Luke-OH.  You have been such a tremendous resource to these boards.  I passionately follow my beloved O's, but I have neither the time (wish I did) or resources to follow them as I should.  Luke-OH has provided a ton of insights which have been so helpful to me in following the O's.  A ton of work on his end, a ton of enjoyment on this end. 

[Luke-OH]

29 minutes ago, HbgOsFan said:

Probably not the best place to reply, but I just want to thank Luke-OH.  You have been such a tremendous resource to these boards.  I passionately follow my beloved O's, but I have neither the time (wish I did) or resources to follow them as I should.  Luke-OH has provided a ton of insights which have been so helpful to me in following the O's.  A ton of work on his end, a ton of enjoyment on this end. 

I don't reply to each of the thank you posts, but I do appreciate them all.  I'm glad that you all like what I'm doing and I will have more coming, including weekly/biweekly scouting notes when the season starts.  I plan on trying to have some fresh content up on the home page on a weekly basis. Tony and I will probably be doing some sort of video discussion of the prospects soon, our differing viewpoints on certain guys, etc.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I don't reply to each of the thank you posts, but I do appreciate them all.  I'm glad that you all like what I'm doing and I will have more coming, including weekly/biweekly scouting notes when the season starts.  I plan on trying to have some fresh content up on the home page on a weekly basis. Tony and I will probably be doing some sort of video discussion of the prospects soon, our differing viewpoints on certain guys, etc.

That will be great.   I always like some healthy debate among people who have some idea what they’re talking about.   

[billw76]

Great article Luke. Personally I'm pretty high on our farm system and think it's in the best shape it's been in a long time. It looks like we have quite a few SP's and OF's who could be ready by 2019. I think we are lacking at 2B, SS and 3B, but that could also change if guys like Mountcastle and Reyes can stick at their current positions.

Depending on how this season goes, the farm could see an additional boost if anyone from the ML roster is traded by the deadline. Overall I think we are in a better position to hopefully avoid another 14 year stretch of losing seasons.

[tntoriole]

Excellent, excellent, excellent, Luke!!!  It makes the cold offseason that much warmer!  

[Luke-OH]

Obviously this is only one publication and depth isn't as important as having excellent top prospects, but...

Per Baseball America's "Just Missed" article that I linked in my article, the Orioles have 11 players in the Top 236 players

There were 136 just missed players who made at least one of BA's 5 individual writer top 150 lists but not the top 100.  

So how does the Orioles 11 players stack up with other teams?

Tied for 4th

Padres: 14

Braves: 13

Yankees: 12

Rays: 11

Phillies:11

Orioles: 11

Dodgers: 10

Pirates: 10

I thought that was interesting.