Most important player for 2018?

[mdbdotcom]

9 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Davis had a higher OPS in 2012, plus he won that extra innings game in Boston as a pitcher. 

By WAR, 3.0 in 2016, 1.6 in 2012.

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

2016 was Davis' third best year. 

I’d still characterize it as mediocre, at least offensively.

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

 

On ‎2‎/‎24‎/‎2018 at 11:41 AM, Moose Milligan said:

On offense, I'd say Davis.  Can he get back to being solid?  

As far as pitching goes, I'd agree with Frobby's take on Tillman.  Rotation looks better if he can pitch to an ERA in the low 4's or even if he could somehow rebound to 2016 levels.  

 

Another way of stating the original question is "which player has the highest variability in the their outcomes?" 

Davis and Tillman are up there.  In a bad year they're below replacement, barely playable.  But at their best, at least in the past, they're All Star or even MVP caliber.  Without looking it up I'd bet Tillman+Davis approached 10 wins in a season, last year what were they... -2?  I think we'd have to concede that +5 this year would be a big win.

[webbrick2010]

Manny, simply because he will have the most AB's on offense, and the most chances on defense.

He needs to have a breakout year

[DrungoHazewood]

14 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Manny, simply because he will have the most AB's on offense, and the most chances on defense.

He needs to have a breakout year

Didn't Manny have his breakout in 2013?  Or do you mean he has to have Ruthian season for the Orioles to compete?  It's hard to have a breakout season when you're already one of the top players in baseball.

[webbrick2010]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Didn't Manny have his breakout in 2013?  Or do you mean he has to have Ruthian season for the Orioles to compete?  It's hard to have a breakout season when you're already one of the top players in baseball.

He hit .259 last year and finished middle of the pack (at 3B) in DRS.

Call it what you want, but he needs to actually be "one of the top players in baseball" because he certainly was not that last year.

[bobmc]

14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Didn't Manny have his breakout in 2013?  Or do you mean he has to have Ruthian season for the Orioles to compete?  It's hard to have a breakout season when you're already one of the top players in baseball.

I hope I'm wrong (and I have never stayed at HIE) but I'm not seeing Manny as a top SS defensively.  He's ok with a good arm but not sure he makes all the routine plays JJ did.  It's a real SSS for me but thinking he was stellar at third but only "average" at SS.  Of course I am obviously not a UZR/WAR guy so there is that...

[Aglets]

13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Didn't Manny have his breakout in 2013?  Or do you mean he has to have Ruthian season for the Orioles to compete?  It's hard to have a breakout season when you're already one of the top players in baseball.

Manny was worth 3.5 WAR last year where in the previous two years he was 6.7 and 7.1.   Put another way, Manny cost us over 3 wins alone last year by himself!   He needs to step it up!  

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Manny was worth 3.5 WAR last year where in the previous two years he was 6.7 and 7.1.   Put another way, Manny cost us over 3 wins alone last year by himself!   He needs to step it up!  

In 1925 Babe Ruth was in the midst of the longest, best sustained run of any player in history, but he got a "stomach ache", missed 56 games and was only worth 3.5 wins.  What a loser.

And I'm sure Frobby remembers the year Frank went from .342 with 39 homers to .259 with 21 the next.  That probably planted the seeds of doubt at RedsHangout, leading to his eventual trade.

Can you imagine the chorus of criticism Cal would face online today, almost randomly ping ponging back and forth between 11-win seasons and three or four?

[webbrick2010]

20 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In 1925 Babe Ruth was in the midst of the longest, best sustained run of any player in history, but he got a "stomach ache", missed 56 games and was only worth 3.5 wins.  What a loser.

And I'm sure Frobby remembers the year Frank went from .342 with 39 homers to .259 with 21 the next.  That probably planted the seeds of doubt at RedsHangout, leading to his eventual trade.

Can you imagine the chorus of criticism Cal would face online today, almost randomly ping ponging back and forth between 11-win seasons and three or four?

So Manny is the next Babe Ruth, Frank Robinson, or Cal Ripken?

Sorry he is not even in the same solar system as Babe Ruth or Frank Robinson, and ping ponging between 11 wins and 4 wins, beats going from 6.7 to 3.5, Despite all of the OH love, Manny is not on a path to the HOF. How many times did Babe Ruth, Frank Robinson, or Cal Ripken not make the all star team?, or not be voted the best player on their own team?

 

[Aglets]

Manny's WAR total through age 24:  27.9

Cal Ripken's WAR total through 24:  27.9

Not in the same solar system huh?    Now I'm convinced God has a sense of humor.

In fairness, Frank's number through age 24 was 29.7,  I suppose that is in a whole separate galaxy from 27.9.

[Redskins Rick]

It has to be Tilly.

He went from 4.1 to -2.2

Getting back to anything close to 4.0, will go a long way to helping this team in the right direction.

 

[Aglets]

How many times did Babe Ruth, Frank Robinson, or Cal Ripken not make the all star team?, or not be voted the best player on their own team?

 

Also, because you continue to ask for stats that disprove your own points:

In Frank's first 5 seasons:     he missed the All Star Game twice.  

In Manny's, he also missed twice. (i'm disregarding 2012 when he only played 51 games)

In 19 total seasons Frank made 12 All Star Games.  I'm disregarding his final two seasons where he played less than 70 games each time.

That's a good percentage for sure, I see no reason why a rational person wouldn't expect Manny to do close to that or exceed it.

 

 

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, Aglets said:

 

 

 

Also, because you continue to ask for stats that disprove your own points:

In Frank's first 5 seasons:     he missed the All Star Game twice.  

In Manny's, he also missed twice. (i'm disregarding 2012 when he only played 51 games)

In 19 total seasons Frank made 12 All Star Games.  I'm disregarding his final two seasons where he played less than 70 games each time.

That's a good percentage for sure, I see no reason why a rational person wouldn't expect Manny to do close to that or exceed it.

 

 

Rule 101 - Only irrational people are allowed to hang out, here at the OH!!!!!!

[MarCakes21]

I'm going to go the other way around.  Everyone thought this team would win 70 games, so we signed Cashner and Tillman and now we have a bright spot to win 90+?  I doubt it.

So I'll take Manny in hopes that his trade value boosts as high as possible and we can flip him for ~3 good prospects for someone's stretch run.