Lance Lynn Signs with the Twins (One-Year Deal)

[theocean]

6 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

This is the most shocking FA signing of the whole offseason to me.  Especially after how many teams were said to be looking for pitching and how many teams were mentioned as being interested...

He turned down a 17.4 million dollar qualifying offer.  This is bizarre.  O's could have given him 1 year, 18 million and it would have made some kind of sense.

Wild.

Totally bizarre. I don't understand it.

[Rene88]

2 minutes ago, Riggodrill44 said:

Did everyone forget that it would cost a 1st rd pick to sign Lynn for 1 year. I got the 12million is really cheap but why give up the draft pick too?

Maybe a second year was a deal breaker for Lynn's camp.

The new CBA changed draft pick compensation. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Riggodrill44 said:

Did everyone forget that it would cost a 1st rd pick to sign Lynn for 1 year. I got the 12million is really cheap but why give up the draft pick too?

Maybe a second year was a deal breaker for Lynn's camp.

No it wouldn't.

Quote

If the signing team received revenue sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold in the previous season, the team only has to surrender its third-highest pick in the next draft. 

Quote

16 teams are revenue-sharing recipients and could qualify for the higher pick — the Astros, Athletics, Braves, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals and Twins.

 

[sportsfan8703]

18 minutes ago, Keygans said:

Can’t wait to hear the “reasons” from the brass that we didn’t beat or match this....

No FA SP is coming to us on a one year deal. I’m sure Lynn is chalking this offseason up to being bizarre and wants to hit the market next year. 

[Luke-OH]

8 minutes ago, Riggodrill44 said:

Did everyone forget that it would cost a 1st rd pick to sign Lynn for 1 year. I got the 12million is really cheap but why give up the draft pick too?

Maybe a second year was a deal breaker for Lynn's camp.

That's a good point, the value of a 50th overall pick (that's the pick the O's would have to give up) is nothing to scoff at. By some calculations it's worth something in the area of 10M in surplus value on average. Now that value is generated years down the road of course and it's no certain thing.

I'd say it's worth the pick if the O's were serious about trying to win in 2018 and if they weren't serious, they should have traded all of their impending FAs already (minus Jones, who has leadership value and doesn't have a ton of surplus trade value)

[Riggodrill44]

That's terrible. I stand corrected. 3rd pick is basically a throw away.

[SteveA]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

No FA SP is coming to us on a one year deal. I’m sure Lynn is chalking this offseason up to being bizarre and wants to hit the market next year. 

We blasted Lynn last year at Camden Yards, 4 home runs in a start.   It was a weekend where even Buck said he had never seen the ball carry as well as it did that weekend.  

I know he pitched at OPACY at least one other time before and had success, but his most recent experience there was a pitcher's nightmare.   I believe the Orioles and Cardinals combined for 22 HRs in a 3 game series, which was the 2nd highest total ever.   That's the last impression of OPACY in Lynn's mind.

Now the market has forced him to take a one year contract, go somewhere and pitch well, and try to score big $$$ next offseason.   You think he would even CONSIDER Baltimore?

I'm not drinking Kool-Aid or defending the front office, they have made huge, horrible, franchise destroying mistakes over the past few years and their claim of "trying to compete" this year is very hollow.   But I do think it's possible that there was no way Lance Lynn was going to come to pitch in Camden Yards after the carnage he witnessed here last June.

If Alex Cobb signs for 1/12 somewhere I will be right at the front of the mob waving pitchforks.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That's a good point, the value of a 50th overall pick (that's the pick the O's would have to give up) is nothing to scoff at. By some calculations it's worth something in the area of 10M in surplus value on average. Now that value is generated years down the road of course and it's no certain thing.

I'd say it's worth the pick if the O's were serious about trying to win in 2018 and if they weren't serious, they should have traded all of their impending FAs already (minus Jones, who has leadership value and doesn't have a ton of surplus trade value)

 

1 minute ago, Riggodrill44 said:

That's terrible. I stand corrected. 3rd pick is basically a throw away.

I think the true value is someone in between.  Dan got hosed both times he traded Competitive Balance round B picks if #50 is worth 10M but it certainly does have a value in the millions.

I'd say the actual value is closer to 5M considering the few trades we have seen in which draft picks have changed hands.

[sportsfan8703]

Just pay Jake. F it. 

[tntoriole]

6 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That's a good point, the value of a 50th overall pick (that's the pick the O's would have to give up) is nothing to scoff at. By some calculations it's worth something in the area of 10M in surplus value on average. Now that value is generated years down the road of course and it's no certain thing.

I'd say it's worth the pick if the O's were serious about trying to win in 2018 and if they weren't serious, they should have traded all of their impending FAs already (minus Jones, who has leadership value and doesn't have a ton of surplus trade value)

Twins give up their 75th pick. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

Twins give up their 75th pick. 

So about the same value as the picks Dan sent out to shed the Webb and Matusz contracts.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Just pay Jake. F it. 

Just trade everyone.  F it.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

Twins give up their 75th pick. 

Yeah, it'd have been the 51st for the O's because they have the competitive balance pick.

 

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I think the true value is someone in between.  Dan got hosed both times he traded Competitive Balance round B picks if #50 is worth 10M but it certainly does have a value in the millions.

I'd say the actual value is closer to 5M considering the few trades we have seen in which draft picks have changed hands.

Yeah, I wasn't saying it was worth 10M in today's dollars. It's definitely discounted due to the fact it's future value and the uncertainty of the pick panning out.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, it'd have been the 51st for the O's because they have the competitive balance pick.

 

Yeah, I wasn't saying it was worth 10M in today's dollars. It's definitely discounted due to the fact it's future value and the uncertainty of the pick panning out.

Gotcha. 

[atomic]

Lynn should have accepted his qualifying offer.   I guess next year a lot of players will accept offer.