Boswell thinks Harper and others will not get $400 million dollar contracts

[Aristotelian]

To me it is more the years than the AAV that seem silly. I can't imagine promising $40M to a future 40 year old version of any player, even someone as good as Manny is right now. What I don't get is why players and owners don't agree to higher AAV deals in the 5-6 year range. At some point there has to be a number high enough for a guy like Manny to sign for fewer years. It might seem like overpaying in the short term but it would be preferable to ending up with a 40 year old Pujols/ARod.

I guess that is what Angelos did with Davis, he just picked the wrong guy.

[weams]

6 minutes ago, oriole said:

What are the chances we see a player strike? Sorry if that's a stupid question. But the players know how much MLB is raking in. I don't agree with the economics of the sport but it's clear players are going to feel taken advantage of if super star players are no longer leap frogging one another in terms of record contracts and ultimately getting smaller portions of the MLB money pie.

If they do, I expect a scab league.

[theocean]

13 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I find it funny that some people have no problem spending other people's money.

Yet, ironic that some people feel like the team's payroll is coming out of their own pocket, and how dare they give $100K raise to the Utility guy whose job it is to sit on the bench and be ready.

I think emotions play into it. There's fans who get caught up in the excitement of things and want a new toy, without thinking of the payroll ramifications.

There's also fans who feel that they're paying for a team's payroll with every $8 beer and $4 hot dog. Or, some who think that their taxes are somehow paying for the team's payroll.

Then, there are others who look at how much baseball players make - and then look at the price of their cable sports package or the cost of a ballpark ticket compared to their own paychecks - and start to feel taken advantage of. I think that's why Schoop and Machado not attending FanFest was such a big deal - fans felt unvalued and just like a source of income.

Sometimes one fan can feel all of those emotions at the same time. I think fans can often feel conflicted about a sports team and come off as being illogical because their emotions are playing into it.

 

[El Gordo]

Couldn't read the article. Why do the current teams have a big advantage in resigning them?

[esmd]

I think Machado gets somewhere around 10/$300M.  He'd only be 36 at the end of that deal I believe, so it's reasonable to believe he'll still be producing at a high level.  Plus, he'll probably get an opt-out after year 4 or 5, so chances are he opts out and the original deal gets torn up anyway - the signing team can always let him go if they feel he may start declining.

[esmd]

7 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Couldn't read the article. Why do the current teams have a big advantage in resigning them?

From the article:

" From analyzing the recent contracts of a range of free agents, I think that almost all teams now believe that if they acquire a top free agent such as Harper, they will have to give up compensation — in draft picks and lost international bonus pool money — that is worth at least $50 million and perhaps more like $75 million."

snip

"But the main reason for the salary plunge is the huge value teams place on the compensation that they must give up if they sign a top free agent who has rejected a qualifying offer ($17.4 million last year)."

snip

"Young players are valued far higher now. Players past 30 are valued much less,” said Boone, a Stanford graduate.  Analytics prove players peak younger than previously thought. Testing for PEDs and amphetamines has stopped older players from cheating to stay young. So the valuation gap has widened at warp speed."

snip

"If the Nats had signed Arrieta, Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as a free agent, they would have given up second- and fifth-round picks in the June draft, as well as $1 million in international bonus money. “Fans don’t understand all the value in those picks and bonus money,” Nats principal owner Mark Lerner said Tuesday.

But the Lerners understand. In a few years, the Nats’ starting lineup may include outfielders Robles, 20, and Soto, 19, as well as Wilmer Difo and catcher Pedro Severino. A key piece in the 2016 trade for Eaton was 100-mph prospect Reynaldo Lopez. Those five Dominican players were all signed by the Nats for less than $400,000 in international bonus money.

Could the ultimate value of all those internationals, plus draft picks that might pan out as well as a second-rounder like Jordan Zimmermann, provide the Nats with $50 million to $75 million in value — my guesstimate earlier — during their young, inexpensive 20s?"

 

[esmd]

While I agree with Boswell's point about players pushing and/or over 30 seeing their value diminished, Harper and Machado are rare exceptions, since they hit the majors as teenagers and FA in their mid-20's.  They probably won't hit $400M, but I never really though they would, at least not over an 8-10 year deal, maybe if they took a shorter deal the AAV would push $40M.  But I still think they both get deals of at least 8 years, very possibly 10, with AAVs of at least $30M per year.

[webbrick2010]

Most kids don't watch/play baseball

Most kids/young adults don't watch TV at all,  cable is dying and with it Regional Sports Networks, and cable sports networks (ESPN)

Some day historians may point to the Chris Davis contract as one of the last really stupid MLB contracts just before the league fell into decline and consolidation.

[Finisher]

Manny and Harper will still get 10/300. This is a fluky offseason because the two biggest spenders in the Yankees and Dodgers aren't participating.

[El Gordo]

6 minutes ago, esmd said:

From the article:

" From analyzing the recent contracts of a range of free agents, I think that almost all teams now believe that if they acquire a top free agent such as Harper, they will have to give up compensation — in draft picks and lost international bonus pool money — that is worth at least $50 million and perhaps more like $75 million."

snip

"But the main reason for the salary plunge is the huge value teams place on the compensation that they must give up if they sign a top free agent who has rejected a qualifying offer ($17.4 million last year)."

snip

"Young players are valued far higher now. Players past 30 are valued much less,” said Boone, a Stanford graduate.  Analytics prove players peak younger than previously thought. Testing for PEDs and amphetamines has stopped older players from cheating to stay young. So the valuation gap has widened at warp speed."

snip

"If the Nats had signed Arrieta, Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as a free agent, they would have given up second- and fifth-round picks in the June draft, as well as $1 million in international bonus money. “Fans don’t understand all the value in those picks and bonus money,” Nats principal owner Mark Lerner said Tuesday.

But the Lerners understand. In a few years, the Nats’ starting lineup may include outfielders Robles, 20, and Soto, 19, as well as Wilmer Difo and catcher Pedro Severino. A key piece in the 2016 trade for Eaton was 100-mph prospect Reynaldo Lopez. Those five Dominican players were all signed by the Nats for less than $400,000 in international bonus money.

Could the ultimate value of all those internationals, plus draft picks that might pan out as well as a second-rounder like Jordan Zimmermann, provide the Nats with $50 million to $75 million in value — my guesstimate earlier — during their young, inexpensive 20s?"

 

Thanks that explains it. 

[jabba72]

8 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Most kids don't watch/play baseball

Most kids/young adults don't watch TV at all,  cable is dying and with it Regional Sports Networks, and cable sports networks (ESPN)

Some day historians may point to the Chris Davis contract as one of the last really stupid MLB contracts just before the league fell into decline and consolidation.

 I can see a decline coming, but the owners are already getting wise to the foolishness of longterm contracts. Which should benefit the game and teams like the Orioles. 

[esmd]

13 minutes ago, Finisher said:

Manny and Harper will still get 10/300. This is a fluky offseason because the two biggest spenders in the Yankees and Dodgers aren't participating.

Precisely.  And the reason for that is to reset their luxury tax penalty back to the starting point so they can be in on Machado and Harper next offseason.

[Redskins Rick]

12 minutes ago, esmd said:

Precisely.  And the reason for that is to reset their luxury tax penalty back to the starting point so they can be in on Machado and Harper next offseason.

I dislike salary caps, if owners want to overspend, then so be it.

But, this luxury tax system is so just bloody stupid.

Either do away with it, or just put in a real salary cap, and not like the NBA which is a joke.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

Does it ever make sense to give a player a 10 year contract where the player would have to play at a HOF level for the life of the contract to be worth the contract?  No.    

Let's say we are looking at 12/400, at the higher end of the speculation.  That is 33.3M a season.  If we assign a win value of 10M a win as the average cost over the length of the contract we are only looking at needing to produce 3.5 wins a year for the deal to be in surplus.

Manny, even with being promoted mid season and missing time to two serious injuries, has been averaging 4.67.  Harper has been averaging 4.35 and has the higher established ceiling.

The contracts would run from ages 26-37. 

I think it is very possible that they could even provide a small bit of excess value.

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

And yet the Padres just paid Hosmer to be a lot more valuable through his decline phase than he's been up through his expected peak.  They're paying him about $20M a year for eight years, and he's only had three good seasons.

The contracts, with a few Moustakas/Hosmer exceptions, look like simple calculations of value (i.e. WAR), inflation, and straight-line decline.  By that Manny's is worth something like 8/250 or 10/300, Harper at least 8/200.  They're as young as any quality free agents have ever been.  Maybe they don't get the $300M+ everyone assumed, but it won't be too far from that.

This. One of the teams / owners will blink and give them close to what they want. It's just a matter of who / when. Also, it's not fair to compare this recent free agent class to next year's because there was no on available who is even close to as talented and young as Harper and Machado.