Welp, Are We Officially Worried About Brach?

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I watched the 9th inning again this morning, and a re-viewing confirmed my view that Brach did not pitch poorly in that inning, other than the four pitch walk to Morrison.    First guy struck out and Brach’s stuff was nasty.    Second guy hit a pretty routine chopper on a nasty pitch from Brach that Davis lost in the sun — very tough break.    Next batter was the four pitch walk and it was punctuated by a pretty bad passed ball from Joseph on the second pitch that might have unnerved Brach a little.   Next batter was a tough battle that went 7 pitches and Brach eventually won on a nasty changeup.    Then came Kepler’s epic 11-pitch at bat that started off 0-2 and eventually resulted in a walk — I give the credit to Kepler for fouling off several tough pitches and laying off ball four, which was a close pitch but definitely outside the strike zone by a couple inches.

Pause there — Brach had thrown 29 pitches and just lost a very tough battle to load the bases.   Buck stuck with him — a debatable call at that point.    I would have changed pitchers but the decision can be justified.    Borderline decision.

Brach’s final sequence was not particularly good — he fell behind 3-1 and the final pitch was a bit up and center of the plate.    But, it yielded a flare that was not well hit and only a foot or two from being caught.     

Overall, what I didn’t see was a guy intimidated by closing.    The inning just didn’t go his way.

 

 

 

 

I am still concerned that Brach does not have much against lefties. 

[Number5]

21 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

You do remember Givens had 6 BS in middle relief last year?

He does have electric stuff, most of the time, he also hasn't been pitching as long as some of the other guys, and he does get frazzled too.

 

"Blown saves" is a very misleading statistic, especially for non-closers.  Pitcher is called in with bases loaded and no outs in the seventh inning with his team leading by one run.  He proceeds to induce the first hitter to ground into a 6-4-3 double play and strikes out the second hitter he faces.  Excellent outing, did his job.  Yet he is saddled with a "blown save" because the inherited runner from third scored on the double play ball, tying the game.    This despite the fact that everyone on the planet knows that there was zero chance that he would pitch the rest of the game, and never really was going to have a save opportunity to begin with.  I certainly wouldn't be worried about any "blown saves"  assigned to Givens as a set-up guy.

[VaBird1]

 

51 minutes ago, Number5 said:

"Blown saves" is a very misleading statistic, especially for non-closers.  Pitcher is called in with bases loaded and no outs in the seventh inning with his team leading by one run.  He proceeds to induce the first hitter to ground into a 6-4-3 double play and strikes out the second hitter he faces.  Excellent outing, did his job.  Yet he is saddled with a "blown save" because the inherited runner from third scored on the double play ball, tying the game.    This despite the fact that everyone on the planet knows that there was zero chance that he would pitch the rest of the game, and never really was going to have a save opportunity to begin with.  I certainly wouldn't be worried about any "blown saves"  assigned to Givens as a set-up guy.

Or a guy is a bit wild but strikes out the first batter, gets the second to hit a grounder to first which is misplayed, walks the third, k’s the fourth, and then gives up a bloop which ties the game.  In that case it would be more fair to give the fielder the blown save. 

[now]

2 hours ago, Number5 said:

"Blown saves" is a very misleading statistic, especially for non-closers.  Pitcher is called in with bases loaded and no outs in the seventh inning with his team leading by one run.  He proceeds to induce the first hitter to ground into a 6-4-3 double play and strikes out the second hitter he faces.  Excellent outing, did his job.  Yet he is saddled with a "blown save" because the inherited runner from third scored on the double play ball, tying the game.    This despite the fact that everyone on the planet knows that there was zero chance that he would pitch the rest of the game, and never really was going to have a save opportunity to begin with.  I certainly wouldn't be worried about any "blown saves"  assigned to Givens as a set-up guy.

Note, that 6 blown saves was out of 6 save opportunities. Your point about the unfairness of the stat is valid, but so is the hesitation over Givens as closer. More concerning to me was the 10 home runs he served up last year, almost double from 2016.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Number5 said:

"Blown saves" is a very misleading statistic, especially for non-closers.  Pitcher is called in with bases loaded and no outs in the seventh inning with his team leading by one run.  He proceeds to induce the first hitter to ground into a 6-4-3 double play and strikes out the second hitter he faces.  Excellent outing, did his job.  Yet he is saddled with a "blown save" because the inherited runner from third scored on the double play ball, tying the game.    This despite the fact that everyone on the planet knows that there was zero chance that he would pitch the rest of the game, and never really was going to have a save opportunity to begin with.  I certainly wouldn't be worried about any "blown saves"  assigned to Givens as a set-up guy.

I agree with your point that blown saves can come in more difficult circumstances for a set up guy.   So, let’s look at the specifics for Givens:

April 3 - came in with one out, runner on 1st, 1 run lead and allowed that runner to score.

April 9 - came in with one out, nobody on, got through that inning but allowed a leadoff homer the following inning.   

May 20 - came in with one out, runners on 1st and 2nd, and immediately gave up a three-run homer to blow a two run leader.

August 4 - came in at the start of the 8th inning, 1 run lead, and allowed a grand slam.

August 28 - came in with a 2-run lead, runners on 1st and 2nd and one out, allowed both to score.    

Sept. 18 - came in with the bases loaded, one out and a two-run lead, allowed two runs to score.   

So, that last blown save was definitely a tough one.     The others are more mixed.     

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, now said:

Note, that 6 blown saves was out of 6 save opportunities. Your point about the unfairness of the stat is valid, but so is the hesitation over Givens as closer. More concerning to me was the 10 home runs he served up last year, almost double from 2016.

I just look at the holds instead of the saves.     None of the blown saves came in the 9th inning, so all he was going to get for a successful outing was a hold.   

[Number5]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree with your point that blown saves can come in more difficult circumstances for a set up guy.   So, let’s look at the specifics for Givens:

April 3 - came in with one out, runner on 1st, 1 run lead and allowed that runner to score.

April 9 - came in with one out, nobody on, got through that inning but allowed a leadoff homer the following inning.   

May 20 - came in with one out, runners on 1st and 2nd, and immediately gave up a three-run homer to blow a two run leader.

August 4 - came in at the start of the 8th inning, 1 run lead, and allowed a grand slam.

August 28 - came in with a 2-run lead, runners on 1st and 2nd and one out, allowed both to score.    

Sept. 18 - came in with the bases loaded, one out and a two-run lead, allowed two runs to score.   

So, that last blown save was definitely a tough one.     The others are more mixed.     

My point regarding "blown saves" for non-closers stands.  They were technically "save opportunities" in that had they pitcjed multiple innings and finished the game, it would be a save, but, in reality, they weren't save opportunities. 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Number5 said:

My point regarding "blown saves" for non-closers stands.  They were technically "save opportunities" in that had they pitcjed multiple innings and finished the game, it would be a save, but, in reality, they weren't save opportunities. 

My point is I just look at holds.    Givens had 21.   So, Givens entered  with a lead equivalent to a save situation 27 times and succeeded 77.7% of the time.   It’s not a perfect comparison but it give you a reasonable basis for comparison.    Even for a true closer, not all save situations are equivalent.   Protecting a 1-run lead is much harder than protecting a 3-run lead; sometimes a closer may be brought in to get just one out instead of three; etc.

[now]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My point is I just look at holds.    Givens had 21.   So, Givens entered  with a lead equivalent to a save situation 27 times and succeeded 77.7% of the time.   It’s not a perfect comparison but it give you a reasonable basis for comparison.    Even for a true closer, not all save situations are equivalent.   Protecting a 1-run lead is much harder than protecting a 3-run lead; sometimes a closer may be brought in to get just one out instead of three; etc.

If you're applying that 77.7% success rate for a closer I think it's well below average. 

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, now said:

If you're applying that 77.7% success rate for a closer I think it's well below average. 

That would be Kevin Gregg 2011 territory.    But as I said, the save situations faced by a set-up guy tend to be different (outs expected in the game and inherited runners) so they’re not perfectly comparable.   

[MurphDogg]

59 minutes ago, now said:

If you're applying that 77.7% success rate for a closer I think it's well below average. 

Closers tend to enter games with a lead in the 9th inning and nobody on base. In Givens' case the tying run was on base when he entered the game in 4 of his 6 blown saves.

[now]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

That would be Kevin Gregg 2011 territory.    But as I said, the save situations faced by a set-up guy tend to be different (outs expected in the game and inherited runners) so they’re not perfectly comparable.   

Right... the similarity would be in those occasions where the "closer" enters with men on base, for example in an eight-inning setup man meltdown, or in the ninth after a four-run lead is put in jeopardy. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Closers tend to enter games with a lead in the 9th inning and nobody on base. In Givens' case the tying run was on base when he entered the game in 4 of his 6 blown saves.

It cuts both ways.    A set up guy might come in to get one out, or it could be six.      

[MurphDogg]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It cuts both ways.    A set up guy might come in to get one out, or it could be six.      

I think hold rate is consistently lower than save rate to a greater extent than is explainable than merely the quality of the pitcher.

[Frobby]

On 3/29/2018 at 6:08 PM, bird watcher said:

Go with the hot hand. Brach is not that right now. Oday or Givens should close for now. Brach has not thrived as a closer. Let him be good where he is clearly more comfortable. 

So, how’s Givens looking to you as the potential closer?

I thought Brach looked good last night.    Maxed out at 95.4, sat 94 and threw some nasty change-ups.