Oriole Draft Primer: #11, #37, and my top 50 draft prospects

[Luke-OH]

A couple of notes,

HS RHP Mike Vasil withdrew from the draft yesterday intending to honor his UVA commitment,  he was going to be in the mid-30s.

 

Notable snubs from my preference list include...

 

Seth Beer - great bat, but hasn't hit for much power with wood and has the athleticism of a 30+ year old Mark Trumbo.

Tristan Beck - trouble holding stuff and command

Greyson Jenista - 2nd round guy for me, I don't like the body and I think he loses athleticism quickly as he ages.

Alek Thomas - I think the below average arm pushes him off CF and he doesn't have the power potential to profile in a corner.

Will Banfield - Questionable hit tool

Parker Meadows - not as athletic as his brother Austin Meadows, not crazy about the swing either.

[Greg Pappas]

58 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

A couple of notes,

HS RHP Mike Vasil withdrew from the draft yesterday intending to honor his UVA commitment,  he was going to be in the mid-30s.

 

Notable snubs from my preference list include...

 

Seth Beer - great bat, but hasn't hit for much power with wood and has the athleticism of a 30+ year old Mark Trumbo.

Tristan Beck - trouble holding stuff and command

Greyson Jenista - 2nd round guy for me, I don't like the body and I think he loses athleticism quickly as he ages.

Alek Thomas - I think the below average arm pushes him off CF and he doesn't have the power potential to profile in a corner.

Will Banfield - Questionable hit tool

Parker Meadows - not as athletic as his brother Austin Meadows, not crazy about the swing either.

I liked Vasil, had he been there for us at #37, but no longer with this news. I also like Jordan Groshans, but don't expect him to be there at 37. 

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Loving the video on KUMAR ROCKER.   Where is he projected to go?  That looks like someone who could lead a rotation for a while.  That balance with that big body.  The distance he gains at the point of release is beast!   From the hitter's POV, it must look like a huge man coming right at you.  Loving the over the head wind up too.

Rocker is interesting, the prevailing rumor is that he'll require big money to sign, even at 11 it looks like he'll need to get overslot. He's definitely a presence on the mound though and I think someone will pay him (from what I've been reading, his range looks to be 8-20ish, with some chance he goes to school), I think there are better options that won't blow the bonus pool though.

[Greg Pappas]

At this point, my Top 11 plays out like this:

Mize, Madrigal, Bohm (1B), Liberatore, Singer, Kelenic, Winn, Stewart, Bart, Groshans, and Weathers.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Greg Pappas said:

At this point, my Top 11 plays out like this:

Mize, Madrigal, Bohm (1B), Liberatore, Singer, Kelenic, Winn, Stewart, Bart, Groshans, and Weathers.

Nice, fairly similar to mine other than I'm really high on Logan Gilbert and you are really high on Groshans. Groshans definitely has the potential for an impact bat if he develops well.

[Luke-OH]

I really went back and forth between Raleigh and Nick Dunn of Maryland for the last spot. It was a hard choice and Dunn might be the first one off the list.

Dunn is a 2B, who is probably only a 45 (fringe average) defender there. The real appeal is the bat, he can really hit and has an advanced approach. He hits against the best competition with wood bats, he has two summers on the Cape batting .310+, with at least a .370 OBP. He's had a bit of a power surge this season, hitting 10 HR, doubling his 2017 output. The bat speed is above average and he keeps the barrel in the zone a long time. I've seen a video of him hitting a ball 410+ft, so there is a chance for some pop. Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I like the guy. 

I was going to write about him in my last draft piece, but I feel like despite the lack of industry buzz about Dunn, he deserves a little spotlight here. This is a video of him, very useful video because it shows multiple ABs against Logan Gilbert (one of the top 5 college arms in the country).

And here is the video of him hitting a homer well past a 408ft marker in game.

 

[MDtransplant757]

Apparently a ton of outlets have us taking Cole Winn, which with the DL hall and Cody Sedlock + Keegan Akin picks we've made the past 2 years is an Oriolesy pick to make. 

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Apparently a ton of outlets have us taking Cole Winn, which with the DL hall and Cody Sedlock + Keegan Akin picks we've made the past 2 years is an Oriolesy pick to make. 

I'm not sure where you are getting that. But honestly, I don't think any publications called Sedlock or DL Hall to the Orioles, so I wouldn't put too much stock into them, the Orioles apparently keep things pretty close to the vest.

MLB.com has done 4 mocks, with the O's picks being Gorman, Winn, Weathers, and Winn

Fangraphs has India, mentioning interest in Gilbert, Larnach, and Rolison as well.

BA is behind a paywall, but they've done a few.

Perfect Game has 3 mocks, with the O's picks being Singer, India, and Weathers

Draftsite has Jarred Kelenic

CBS Sports has Shane McClanahan

Law has Liberatore in his most recent mock.

Edit: I just saw BA have the O's taking Winn also, so 2 outlets.

[Moose Milligan]

It seems harder to guess the 11th pick in the MLB draft compared to something like the NFL draft, is that a fair assessment?

[Greg Pappas]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It seems harder to guess the 11th pick in the MLB draft compared to something like the NFL draft, is that a fair assessment?

Yeah, it's tough to guess with any accuracy. Some years the first couple of picks seem locked in, but usually it's difficult to nail down most of the players to teams.

[Greg Pappas]

One thing I'd like to add about the MLB Draft. Major League Baseball is missing the boat on making it more popular, if they'd allow full-scale trading of draft picks. No restrictions.

Ex: Machado to the Braves for their #1 and #2  picks this year and #3 and #4 next year.
This would certainly heighten attention for the draft. O's fans would be very interested to find out who we were getting.

Anyway, I hope MLB sees the light and allows this in the next CBA.

[Jammer7]

Luke, fantastic job on your top 50! Impressive work. You have obviously done your own work here and it's well done. I can certainly follow your reasoning for your thoughts on Gilbert.

I keep hearing Grayson Rodriguez is climbing rapidly, maybe even into the top 10. A bit like Baz last year.

Winn's name keeps popping up, and there is quite a bit of talk about college players like Gilbert, Larnach, etc... for the Orioles at #11. But I have this feeling that they will grab a high upside HS arm this time and they are laying low in their interest with the college smokescreen. Rajsich likes the HS upside picks, but will he have the freedom to choose or is this draft going to have "guidance?" Weathers is a guy that seems to fit their liking, and Winn and Stewart make sense as well. Their handle on the state of Georgia with Scout Art McConnehead has me thinking they just may surprise there with a Hankins or Rocker if their numbers are within reach. Maybe a Gorman, if he's not already gone to the Braves at #8. I know the track record of HS arms, particularly RHP, is a scary statistical proposition, but these guys are tremendous talents if you believe in your system.

I really like Xavier Edwards. Maybe not at #11, and he'll probably be gone by #37, but I really like him.

[zjsmith]

I hope Luke is kidding. I don't see top teams filling their 2nd base needs with a top 15 pick. Those teams draft pitchers, shortstops, impact outfielders with those picks. But if you want to be mediocre go ahead and draft a 2nd baseman.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, zjsmith said:

I hope Luke is kidding. I don't see top teams filling their 2nd base needs with a top 15 pick. Those teams draft pitchers, shortstops, impact outfielders with those picks. But if you want to be mediocre go ahead and draft a 2nd baseman.

Yes the norm is to draft shortstops and move them to second if they can't stay at short.

However an advanced college bat at second?  I can see it.

[Jammer7]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes the norm is to draft shortstops and move them to second if they can't stay at short.

However an advanced college bat at second?  I can see it.

I can see both sides on that thought, in theory. But I struggle with any example of a 2B picked in the top 15 recently. Chase Utley was the Phillies first rounder in 2000, picked 15th overall. He was a SS at UCLA, and I don't recall him being a sure thing to move over at the time. That said, if there is a dynamic college bat there who perhaps has an arm just short of SS, then sure, I can see it.