Can our current rotation do better?

[Frobby]

Tossing out Tillman and Wright, our current rotation has a 4.87 ERA, broken down as follows:

Hess 3.47 ERA (4 starts)

Bundy 4.46 (12)

Gausman 4.63 (12)

Cashner 5.02 (12)

Cobb 6.19 (10)

Is it reasonable to expect that group to do any better going forward?    I’d say Hess is almost sure to do worse as the league sees him, while Cobb has been doing much better since April (4.20) and should be able to maintain that based on his track record.     I’m hoping for better from our two home-grown guys, and Cashner probably stays about where he is.    Overall, I’d like to think this group could produce 4.25-4.50 going forward.    That compares with 5.41 year to date, including Tillman and Wright.

Thoughts?

 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Tossing out Tillman and Wright, our current rotation has a 4.87 ERA, broken down as follows:

Hess 3.47 ERA (4 starts)

Bundy 4.46 (12)

Gausman 4.63 (12)

Cashner 5.02 (12)

Cobb 6.19 (10)

Is it reasonable to expect that group to do any better going forward?    I’d say Hess is almost sure to do worse as the league sees him, while Cobb has been doing much better since April (4.20) and should be able to maintain that based on his track record.     I’m hoping for better from our two home-grown guys, and Cashner probably stays about where he is.    Overall, I’d like to think this group could produce 4.25-4.50 going forward.    That compares with 5.41 year to date, including Tillman and Wright.

Thoughts?

 

Higher

Lower

Lower

Higher

Lower

4.65

 

Of course if they do something about the defense that could change.

 

[wildcard]

Is the defense going to get better?   I think it has a lot to do with the pitchers high ERA.

[Pheasants]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Higher

Lower

Lower

Higher

Lower

4.65

 

Of course if they do something about the defense that could change.

 

For them to average 4.65, it would mean that more than Hess and Cashner would have to get worse (or Cobb gets better but stays around 5.) While I no longer trust Gausman to get any better, I can't see him getting much worse.  So I think a starter ERA under 4.5 should be expected.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

For them to average 4.65, it would mean that more than Hess and Cashner would have to get worse (or Cobb gets better but stays around 5.) While I no longer trust Gausman to get any better, I can't see him getting much worse.  So I think a starter ERA under 4.5 should be expected.

Yes.

[Pheasants]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes.

I'm not sure I follow.  Cashner and Hess get worse. (If Hess hits 5.00, I think he's gone and we try someone else.)  You had Bundy and Gausman doing better than their current ERAs, both below your team prediction of 4.65.  Cobb is likely to go down to about the 4.20 he's been pitching for a month.  So do you really expect Cashner and Hess to be so bad they offset improvements by the other three?

 

[esmd]

I think Cobb will get better.  Cashner too, though I think the best we can expect from him is maybe about 1/2 run lower ERA.  Hess is intriguing.  I hadn't really considered him for the rotation next year, assuming Harvey is in it.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Pheasants said:

I'm not sure I follow.  Cashner and Hess get worse. (If Hess hits 5.00, I think he's gone and we try someone else.)  You had Bundy and Gausman doing better than their current ERAs, both below your team prediction of 4.65.  Cobb is likely to go down to about the 4.20 he's been pitching for a month.  So do you really expect Cashner and Hess to be so bad they offset improvements by the other three?

 

I don't think the other three are going to improve by all that much.  I have a feeling this is a lost season for Cobb.

But like I said, if Buck starts putting actual outfielders out there things could change.

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Is the defense going to get better?   I think it has a lot to do with the pitchers high ERA.

Here’s the differential between ERA and FIP for the five pitchers (negative number means FIP is higher than ERA).

Hess -2.17

Bundy -0.29

Gausman +0.19

Cashner -0.01

Cobb +1.26

 Based on that, you’d say defense hasn’t hurt the five current starting pitchers that much.    On the year, the differential for the whole team is + 0.30.    

 

[now]

This is a good question, which I've been wondering about in terms of draft strategy -- the high-ceiling, high-risk approach vs. the safe approach.

We know Cobb and Cashner are what they are (track record). Though our hopes may remain orange-colored when it comes to Bundy and Gausman, I'm afraid we'll have to settle for "they are what they are" - i.e., slot 3-5 rotation pieces, not aces. 

Do the Orioles need an ace or two to win big? I guess the current model would propose not: just go with a middling but stable rotation and complement it with offense, defense and a strong bullpen (in theory! -- and recent practice).

I'm about ready to put my hopes instead on the other strategy: try to land some true, if raw, ace material. In other words, I would put any of "our guys" on the trading block and try to secure some high-end prospects. Say a Gausman nets a AAA, AA and A haul, all with high risks but higher ceiling. Combine with our young arms in the low minors and maybe we'll finally wind up with a bona fide ace or two in a couple of years.

Otherwise, it's just more treading water.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, now said:

This is a good question, which I've been wondering about in terms of draft strategy -- the high-ceiling, high-risk approach vs. the safe approach.

We know Cobb and Cashner are what they are (track record). Though our hopes may remain orange-colored when it comes to Bundy and Gausman, I'm afraid we'll have to settle for "they are what they are" - i.e., slot 3-5 rotation pieces, not aces. 

Do the Orioles need an ace or two to win big? I guess the current model would propose not: just go with a middling but stable rotation and complement it with offense, defense and a strong bullpen (in theory! -- and recent practice).

I'm about ready to put my hopes instead on the other strategy: try to land some true, if raw, ace material. In other words, I would put any of "our guys" on the trading block and try to secure some high-end prospects. Say a Gausman nets a AAA, AA and A haul, all with high risks but higher ceiling. Combine with our young arms in the low minors and maybe we'll finally wind up with a bona fide ace or two in a couple of years.

Otherwise, it's just more treading water.

They did just fine in 2014 with 5 3's.  I think it can be done that way.

[Ohfan67]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

They did just fine in 2014 with 5 3's.  I think it can be done that way.

Yes, avoiding the black holes is almost certainly more important than having a Cy Young winner as your ace. I bet the probability difference of winning a game started by a pitcher with an ERA of 3.5  versus 2.5 is much smaller than the difference in probability of winning when starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4 versus 5. 

[amdcpus]

1 hour ago, Pheasants said:

I'm not sure I follow.  Cashner and Hess get worse. (If Hess hits 5.00, I think he's gone and we try someone else.)  You had Bundy and Gausman doing better than their current ERAs, both below your team prediction of 4.65.  Cobb is likely to go down to about the 4.20 he's been pitching for a month.  So do you really expect Cashner and Hess to be so bad they offset improvements by the other three?

 

5 ERA is much better than a 10+ ERA which is what Tillman has. Better than the 8+ ERA Wright had as a starter. Harvey's getting lit up at AA. Who exactly would you propose to replace Hess?

[Dark Helmet]

Bundy and Cobb can do better and probably will. Gausman always comes on the last few months of the season, just to make us think he's turned it around...thus giving us hope for next year. Cashner is probaby what we see is what we get. I suspect Hess will get a little worse once the league sees him more.

So overall, yes they can do better.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the differential between ERA and FIP for the five pitchers (negative number means FIP is higher than ERA).

Hess -2.17

Bundy -0.29

Gausman +0.19

Cashner -0.01

Cobb +1.26

 Based on that, you’d say defense hasn’t hurt the five current starting pitchers that much.    On the year, the differential for the whole team is + 0.30.    

 

I don't agree.  Errors and plays that weren't made but should have been cost the starters a lot of pitches and shortened their outings.