Fangraphs: O’s have zero of the top 131 prospects in baseball.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

Acuña was called up by the Braves and has been in 29 games.  When does he stop being labeled a prospect?

I assume when he reaches the limit of rookie eligibility for next year, which I think is 45 games.   

[Tryptamine]

Remember guys, numbers alone do not get you ranked. If you're a pitcher with fastball that sits 88-90, unless you have an ungodly couple of offspeed pitches the chances of you ever making the top 100 is very small. Also, the FG list really was about guys who were already ranked not about pop up guys. There were far too many pop up guys not on that list for it to have been an up to date prospect lists. Those usually don't happen in season because they take a very long time to compile. For example, Cub prospect Miguel Amaya isn't on the list, but if we're talking up to this very minute he's jumped past the rest of the prospects in the farm as the #1 prospect, but he's only really breaking out this year. Once the end of year lists are made I expect there will be adjustments.

[Tx Oriole]

9 hours ago, atomic said:

So there 131st guy had a 5+ ERA in AAA last year and is going to have Tommy John surgery and is 25?  We don't have anyone better than that? 

How accurate is this list? 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Tx Oriole said:

How accurate is this list? 

They grade players on future value based on in person scouting and scouting/team contacts. Then they rank those players in order of future value. There is some discretion used within the tiers of say the 50 FV prospects. 

It's a well researched and thought out list, it's certainly not infallible just like all prospect lists. It's probably on equal footing with Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus lists, although mid-season lists are usually less up to date than end of year lists. 

I do think there is an industry wide distrust for Orioles prospects and player development in general. I think while there are some dumb things that go on that I've heard about, I think the concern is exaggerated.

[wildcard]

42 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

They grade players on future value based on in person scouting and scouting/team contacts. Then they rank those players in order of future value. There is some discretion used within the tiers of say the 50 FV prospects. 

It's a well researched and thought out list, it's certainly not infallible just like all prospect lists. It's probably on equal footing with Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus lists, although mid-season lists are usually less up to date than end of year lists. 

I do think there is an industry wide distrust for Orioles prospects and player development in general. I think while there are some dumb things that go on that I've heard about, I think the concern is exaggerated.

Luke, isn't a lot of weight put on high draft choices and big international signing.  And don't the O's rank low because they have drafted low for the last 5 years and don't sign international player?

I would not expect Akin as a 2nd rounder to rate as high on this list and Bundy was  as a #4 pick overall. But that does not mean that Akin can not be a very good starter.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Luke, isn't a lot of weight put on high draft choices and big international signing.  And don't the O's rank low because they have drafted low for the last 5 years and don't sign international player?

I would not expect Akin as a 2nd rounder to rate as high on this list and Bundy was  as a #4 pick overall. But that does not mean that Akin can not be a very good starter.

Well, for example, Bo Bichette was drafted after Akin and he’s number 8 on this list.     So performance does count for something.   

That said, I’d put more stock in an end-of-season list than this one, and Akin could find his way on to some of those lists if he continues to have a good season.   

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Luke, isn't a lot of weight put on high draft choices and big international signing.  And don't the O's rank low because they have drafted low for the last 5 years and don't sign international player?

I would not expect Akin as a 2nd rounder to rate as high on this list and Bundy was  as a #4 pick overall. But that does not mean that Akin can not be a very good starter.

Definitely, but for good reason. Teams have much more robust amateur scouting resources than BA, BP, or Fangraphs. A team committing a certain amount of bonus money means that the team has a certain grade on that player. I think fans in general are too quick to up or downgrade a player based on recent results. Personally I try and see substantive changes in a players profile before adjusting their grade. There are later round guys on that list as well.

As strange as it may seem, I think the general low opinion of the Orioles organization and how it's run is more detrimental to the Orioles' prospects standing on lists like these than draft status. I think whether it's conscious or unconscious, it affects people's opinions of Orioles prospects.

 

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, for example, Bo Bichette was drafted after Akin and he’s number 8 on this list.     So performance does count for something.   

That said, I’d put more stock in an end-of-season list than this one, and Akin could find his way on to some of those lists if he continues to have a good season.   

I have to think that Bichette is on the list because his father was a major leaguer.  He is not showing much power this season.  He is 20th in the Eastern League in OPS and OBP.   Cedric Mullins had a better season in the Eastern League in less at bats. But, of course, Mullins was a lower draft choice.

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I have to think that Bichette is on the list because his father was a major leaguer.  He is not showing much power this season.  He is 20th in the Eastern League in OPS and OBP.   Cedric Mullins had a better season in the Eastern League in less at bats. But, of course, Mullins was a lower draft choice.

Much much more importantly, Bichette is 3 years, 5 months younger. When Mullins was Bichette's age, he had a .708 OPS in short season ball, Bichette has a .797 in AA. 

 

[wildcard]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

Much much more importantly, Bichette is 3 years, 5 months younger. When Mullins was Bichette's age, he had a .708 OPS in short season ball, Bichette has a .797 in AA. 

 

Apples and oranges.  Bichette is a high school draftee and Mullins was drafted out of college.  Of course, Mullins is older.    Aaron Judge was a college draftee.   He was 22 when drafted and 24 when he first made it to the majors.  Does that mean is not as good as a high school draftee just because he is older.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, wildcard said:

Apples and oranges.  Bichette is a high school draftee and Mullins was drafted out of college.  Of course, Mullins is older.    Aaron Judge was a college draftee.   He was 22 when drafted and 24 when he first made it to the majors.  Does that mean is not as good as a high school draftee just because he is older.

If you want to think the age of a prospect is not important, you are free to do so. The rest of the baseball world will go on thinking the opposite.

[Luke-OH]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I have to think that Bichette is on the list because his father was a major leaguer.  He is not showing much power this season.  He is 20th in the Eastern League in OPS and OBP.   Cedric Mullins had a better season in the Eastern League in less at bats. But, of course, Mullins was a lower draft choice.

BTW, I'm agreeing with you that the Orioles are underrated on these lists, but I think your reasoning is incorrect.

[Otter]

33 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

If you want to think the age of a prospect is not important, you are free to do so. The rest of the baseball world will go on thinking the opposite.

This.  Age relative to level, combined with raw tools, is often more important than stats at the minor league level.  Look at Machado's mediocre offensive numbers in minors...but then look at his age compared to the average age of the level, and combine it with his raw tools, and you see why he was a highly ranked prospect and moved up aggressively through the system.  And it didn't hurt that he was a high first round pick either.

[wildbillhiccup]

What this list tells me is...the Cubs are not a realistic landing spot for Machado. They don't have the prospects to get a deal done. 

 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

If you want to think the age of a prospect is not important, you are free to do so. The rest of the baseball world will go on thinking the opposite.

Age has to be linked with whether the player was drafted as a high school or college player. Otherwise the picture is not complete.