How long will this take?

[ScGO's]

Nothing will change until everyone is able to do the job they were hired to do without interference.  Let's hope that happens.

Rebuilds take 4-5 seasons.  There needs to be a few solid drafts, we need time for intl signs to develop, we need to clear the roster of expensive fodder.  Baltimore needs to rebuild their entire brand anyway, so Patience, hopefully. The next time we are relevant, I want all the memories of 2016-2018 to be locked away deep in the past anyway.

 

[foxfield]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Given Peter's history of ownership and his past GM.

I dont have warm fuzzies, that they will make the right move.

 

 

Just now, FlipTheBird said:

This remains very debatable. Things have been quiet in the Warehouse, and DD is suddenly talking like he's going to be with the franchise for awhile. We just have to wait and see.

I agree with both of you.  We are told PA is stepping back and IF that is true we have to hope the sons are different.  We simply don't know.  We will see soon. And it won't take as long as you may think.  Between now and the last day of the season, something will need to be announced regarding GM.  There are a number of ways it could go, all of which will be instructive to a "new" way of thinking.

1)  IF FO is simply extended as a group.  That tells you immediately that we are window dressing and we can expect more of the same.

2)  IF Buck/Brady extended and then we get a new GM, well again, no reason to expect anything different.

3) IF a GM is named and given full control to make decisions...well then there is hope.

This should play out between now and the end of the season.  It looks that Dan is positioning himself to stay.  I have mixed feelings about that but if he is given full control, I'd be on board.  If they name someone else, I'd be ok with that too.  But if option 1 is the answer or even worse, option 2....well, politely, that is not an intelligent plan for rebuilding.

[TonySoprano]

9 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

They also drafted awful in 2 of the four first picks. Appel and Aiken never sniffed anything close to majors.

Right before those two, they drafted a guy named Carlos Correa.  But it does prove my point about the #1 overall pick that many are so worked up over.

 

[webbrick2010]

2 hours ago, esmd said:

Yet somehow they managed 3 playoff appearances and the most wins in the AL from 2012 through 2016.

Yes with players primarily acquired by the previous management team

[bpilktree67]

20 minutes ago, MikeAD said:

Look at how quickly Houston did this.  Now I realize the Houston farm system was not in total shambles like ours has been but you can still do this quickly.  I think this rebuild could lead to a competitive team in 2020 for sure.  I think the 2019 season might even be one where we don't have to turn the TV off for all of August and September like almost every Orioles season over the past 25 years.  Just bring in a multitude of pitching prospects and hope for the best.  If the rebuild goes well and is done competently we will also have extra pieces to trade for a pitcher or another spot of need once everything comes together.  Houston Houston Houston.  

The Astros had one of the worst farm systems in the league when they began their rebuild.  In 2010 they were 29th in few publications right now we will probally be in the middle of the pack at the end of the year with the Machado move and the Britton move.  We also have more quality pieces to trade if we want to in order to speed up the process if they move Gausman and Schoop.  We may not have a Bedard but we have lot more depth talent wise we can trade then that team had.   A lot will depend on how they draft in the next year or so with the top picks.  They go Witt it takes him awhile to help but they go with the catcher from Oregon State it speeds things up.  Do they move Gausman and Schoop in trades and if they do what type of return do the go after.  Right now it appears they are going to build on the young pitching that is in A ball and some of the bats in AA with Mountcastle, Diaz and Brannon.  They also have Aiken at AA.  My guess is based on the Machado move they trying to build that group as the nucleus.  The Britton trade will clear that up some as well.  Do they go with guys closer to ready or maybe guys ready in 2020.

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

Yes with players primarily acquired by the previous management team

Wow, that is insightful.  Where should we get a new GM who can get 40 new players to pick a roster from in three years.  We need THAT guy.

Sheesh

[bpilktree67]

In 2010 we had the 22nd ranked farm system and finished the year with 96 losses so had are rebuild was not looking that great but in 2 years we were in the playoffs.  We probally have a system equal to that right now and hopefully stretghten in with few moves.  I think the goal should be to be competitive in 2020 then see what parts you need to address and make moves to compete in 2021.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, bpilktree67 said:

In 2010 we had the 22nd ranked farm system and finished the year with 96 losses so had are rebuild was not looking that great but in 2 years we were in the playoffs.  We probally have a system equal to that right now and hopefully stretghten in with few moves.  I think the goal should be to be competitive in 2020 then see what parts you need to address and make moves to compete in 2021.

DD called that retooling, when you are able to make adjustments by adding a body here and there, as opposed to throw away the batch and start again.

The core was there, and thats not something you can say now.

[MikeAD]

31 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

The Astros had one of the worst farm systems in the league when they began their rebuild.  In 2010 they were 29th in few publications right now we will probally be in the middle of the pack at the end of the year with the Machado move and the Britton move.  We also have more quality pieces to trade if we want to in order to speed up the process if they move Gausman and Schoop.  We may not have a Bedard but we have lot more depth talent wise we can trade then that team had.   A lot will depend on how they draft in the next year or so with the top picks.  They go Witt it takes him awhile to help but they go with the catcher from Oregon State it speeds things up.  Do they move Gausman and Schoop in trades and if they do what type of return do the go after.  Right now it appears they are going to build on the young pitching that is in A ball and some of the bats in AA with Mountcastle, Diaz and Brannon.  They also have Aiken at AA.  My guess is based on the Machado move they trying to build that group as the nucleus.  The Britton trade will clear that up some as well.  Do they go with guys closer to ready or maybe guys ready in 2020.

Thanks you topped off my optimism tank! 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

32 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

DD called that retooling, when you are able to make adjustments by adding a body here and there, as opposed to throw away the batch and start again.

The core was there, and thats not something you can say now.

Yes exactly. That roster had Tillman, Jones, Kakes & Wieters & Jim Johnson... Actually, as I type this out, our 2012 success was pretty odd and not due to depth of farm "stars" like we would have thought. And none of those players I listed ever became superstars. The cavalry had largely been ambushed (Arrieta & Matusz sucking, Britton not making it as a starter)

Jason Hammel, Chen, Gonzo, Hardy, Davis, O'Day, Strop were key additions to the "retool". And then being able to add the one potential superstar we had late in the season, Manny. 

But looking back, it does not look like your prototypical path to leading the AL in wins over a 4.5 year period. So like somebody said earlier, it's tough to time these things and how they'll end up happening. Maybe part of the rebuild is wanting to build a sustainable process vs. being outliers like we always were.  

If they are trying to compete in 2020 potentially, I'd be surprised if they trade Gausman or Bundy. What's tough about this time around is that the Red Sox and the Yankees look pretty well set up. I will say this though, Boston's rotation is on the older side. They may have less staying power than the Yanks come two years from now. 

[bpilktree67]

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

DD called that retooling, when you are able to make adjustments by adding a body here and there, as opposed to throw away the batch and start again.

The core was there, and thats not something you can say now.

The Core was where.  They had Markais Jones and Weiters and a slighlty below average farm system.  Jim Johnson was a converted starter to guy they put in the bullpen and was doing ok but had just 10 saves in his career going into 2010.  Chris Tilman was tolling around the minors and majors with an era north of 5 each year in the majors.  Matusz was in the majors doing ok  mid to low 4 era at that point.  but neither of those guys had anywhere near the success as Gausman and Bundy have had in the majors at that point.  They had a 36 year old declining SS in Tejada a 33 year old Roberts at 2nd who was breaking down with concussions at the time.  Look at the 2010 roster and what guys on that team had any part of the success we had from 2012 on.  It looks like only 5 of those guys were even on the team by 2012  so that was a heck of a retool it was a complete overhaul.    Here is the roster and remember it was a below average farm at this time as well.  

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2010-roster.shtml

[ChrisP]

Hopefully less than 14 years. 

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, bpilktree67 said:

In 2010 we had the 22nd ranked farm system and finished the year with 96 losses so had are rebuild was not looking that great but in 2 years we were in the playoffs.  We probally have a system equal to that right now and hopefully stretghten in with few moves.  I think the goal should be to be competitive in 2020 then see what parts you need to address and make moves to compete in 2021.

But no Manny. That system had produced Wieters and then Manny. Britton too but that seems more like a fluke. The overall minor league system may be better, but there doesn’t appear to be multiple all star caliber players in the system. Hopefully some trades will yield a few of those guys, but the system,’s strength seems to be in good pitching and outfield depth, primarily at lower levels. Not sure if the system is better poised to ultimately help the team than it was in say 2012 or 2013. 

[Todd-O]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

 We made a great pick in Manny, but I think one reason we fell short of winning a championship is we didn’t really hit any other home runs with our picks.  

Two of our actual playoff runs didn't have Manny in the fold (injury)... and during our 2014 playoff run we didn't have MW, Manny, or CD.

More than likely, we would have made it to the WS with those three.  

It was just bad luck... and it was great to experience.

[Thato'sfan]

1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

But no Manny. That system had produced Wieters and then Manny. Britton too but that seems more like a fluke. The overall minor league system may be better, but there doesn’t appear to be multiple all star caliber players in the system. Hopefully some trades will yield a few of those guys, but the system,’s strength seems to be in good pitching and outfield depth, primarily at lower levels. Not sure if the system is better poised to ultimately help the team than it was in say 2012 or 2013. 

Manny is a generational talent. That is true, we don't have another guy of his caliber. But we might have our next Markakis(DIaz). A solid future center fielder in Mullins. A future LEGIT impact bat in Mountcastle. Hyas could become an all star. Harvey or Hall might become the best starter we've developed in the past few decades.We have a bevy of mid/back-end high floor, low cewiling guys. We have many near MLB bullpen contributors. Sisco might become a plus offensive catcher. Oh and we will have a top pick next year and just drafted a pitcher with limitless potential in Grayson Rodriguez. If we extend/sign some sub-30 yr old imapct players we could be actual contenders in 3-4 years. If we are terrible for two more consecutive years, that would be two more top picks...the gravy on top. If international spending actually begins(which could start with Victor Victor Mesa) , the future of the organization looks to be very bright.