Dan's 3 year Plan

[weams]

13 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Jon Lester was never flipped by the Cubs.  He still pitches for them.  

I don't think any decent pitcher is going to sign here after this season.   Just a hunch.

 

[Santandah]

5 hours ago, jamalshw said:

Interesting. I was expecting Carroll to take Britton's spot on the roster. I expect he'll be on the roster before the season is up.

Wait until September. See what exactly you have in him, and keep the service clock stopped.

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

 .  .  . 

I truly think if they don't make as many mistakes like that, they can compete year in and year out.  They just have to run an exceptionally tight ship and have to have one of the best scouting and drafting departments and they need to get back to the Oriole Way, or something similar to it.  They're playing poker and they gotta know when to hold em and when to fold em, simple as that.  

But you're also missing that the Yanks and Sox don't compete every year.  You're correct that they have huge payrolls and can mask their mistakes a LOT easier than we can.  But it's no coincidence that our 2012-2016 coincided with both of those teams struggling to figure it out.  Sox and Yanks have advantages for sure but we can't roll over and assume that they're going to be good forever.

 .  .  .

How do you figure that the Orioles can compete "year in and year out" -- which I think means be somewhere near the division lead pretty much every year -- against two teams whose revenues are roughly twice that of the Orioles (and that have strong contacts, reputations and programs in Latin America that the Orioles lack)?  

I wish I could agree with you, but I just don't see it. The same is true for the other five teams --  the Jays, Rays, D-Backs, Rockies and Padres -- that compete against division rivals with a large revenue advantage: if they're smart and have some good luck, they can be in a division race at times, but not all the time.. Maybe a third of the time is the best they can hope for, I'm guessing.

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I think "bungling through the past 5 years" as you put it led to us being the worst team in 2018, but it wouldn't necessarily mean that we'd be good in 2019 or 2020.  In fact, I would say that it's likely that we wouldn't be a good team in 2019/2020 no matter what we did.  We just wouldn't have to suffer through the worst season in the history of baseball in order to get there.

No one disagrees with you on Manny, but a lot of people don't seem to think that Manny would have signed unless its the 2014 offseason.  But would he have passed the Orioles physical?  He just came off his second knee surgery in 2 years. Maybe, during 2015, he was signable.  But after 2015, the consensus among people that would know seems to be that he would be a tough sign.  I'm spitballing here, but I'm guessing it would have taken something like 6/150.  i.e. more than what Trout signed for with the same service time.

When I say bungling through the past 5 years, I'm including not touching the international draft at all.  That's part of the narrative here.  

That statement assumes that the Orioles would be proficient at signing international talent if given the chance.  Who knows.  But we might not be in the spot that we find ourselves in.

In regards to Manny's knee, it was reported that there wouldn't be long term issues.  They should have jumped all over it then.  

 

[eddie83]

I think people are reading too much into this. He is just saying he likes having a 3 year plan. I don’t think he is saying they will be good in 3 years.  

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

How do you figure that the Orioles can compete "year in and year out" -- which I think means be somewhere near the division lead pretty much every year -- against two teams whose revenues are roughly twice that of the Orioles (and that have strong contacts, reputations and programs in Latin America that the Orioles lack)?  

I wish I could agree with you, but I just don't see it. The same is true for the other five teams --  the Jays, Rays, D-Backs, Rockies and Padres -- that compete against division rivals with a large revenue advantage: if they're smart and have some good luck, they can be in a division race at times, but not all the time.. Maybe a third of the time is the best they can hope for, I'm guessing.

How do you figure they can't?  It's easy to make excuses "Oh, the Sox can spend more money, oh the Yankees can mask their mistakes..."  If we're going to just make excuses and leave it at "Sox and Yanks have more revenue and payroll...." well, theres no reason to really watch the Orioles until they get good.

You're missing what I am saying, the Orioles can compete.  They have to run a very tight, smart ship.  They can't afford to take big risks that could blow up in their face, like a Davis contract.  They need constant waves of talent coming through the system.  They need to hunt in the Latin America market very aggressively.  Again, the Braves signed Acuna for 100k.  The Phillies signed Sixto Sanchez for something like 35k.  It's buying lottery tickets but with better odds.  I'm not saying the Orioles would have signed Acuna or Sanchez but we can't have an honest conversation about continually being able to compete when we don't know what it's like to have a franchise that doesn't look for talent like that.  We just pick our nose and roll our eyes and chalk it up to revenue and payroll.

This is a team that gave Tillman money and Colby Rasmus money this year.  Money that would have been better well spent in Latin America.  Had the Orioles been spending Tillman and Rasmus money each year in Latin America for the last 5 years I think we'd be in a different place.  Again, you're focusing on what other teams are doing and how much they can spend, I'm focusing on simple mismanagement of money in player acquisition and where it can be spent better.  I'm not even touching on trades that in no way moved the needle for us at the ML level but gutted an already weak system.  Like Gerardo Parra, was that necessary?  In what universe is Gerardo Parra a guy that puts you over the top for a stretch drive?

I'm (not) sorry, but I don't believe for a second that because a major league team finally gets a good group of talent together and makes the playoffs a few years in a 5 year window that they can't double their efforts to make sure that it stays afloat through keeping an eye towards the future instead of only focusing on the present.  

 

[FlipTheBird]

1 hour ago, clapdiddy said:

Jon Lester was never flipped by the Cubs.  He still pitches for them.  

I don't think any decent pitcher is going to sign here after this season.   Just a hunch.

I disagree. Money always talks - what kept the O's out of signing "decent" starting pitching for a long while was an unwillingness to offer extended contracts, which every good FA pitcher is going to want - so they're secured through the wheels probably falling off the bus at the end of the deal. If the Orioles are willing to spend that cash going forward they will sign guys.

Where the O's have and always will struggle is getting guys on 1-year rebuild my value deals... because home is a hitter's park and they're routinely facing the Yankees Andy Red Sox. Guys would much sooner rebuild value in the NL, or in the canyon-esque stadiums out west.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, spiritof66 said:

How do you figure that the Orioles can compete "year in and year out" -- which I think means be somewhere near the division lead pretty much every year -- against two teams whose revenues are roughly twice that of the Orioles (and that have strong contacts, reputations and programs in Latin America that the Orioles lack)?  

I wish I could agree with you, but I just don't see it. The same is true for the other five teams --  the Jays, Rays, D-Backs, Rockies and Padres -- that compete against division rivals with a large revenue advantage: if they're smart and have some good luck, they can be in a division race at times, but not all the time.. Maybe a third of the time is the best they can hope for, I'm guessing.

With really good drafting/player development, and the existence of a 2nd wild card, I think you can be in the thick of things more frequently.  Probably 4-5 years on, 3-4 years off.  Misses are really costly, of course, but if you keep trading, you can reload.  And if you get a string of hits, you can have a 5-8 year window of sustained success.  Past that it's pretty hard to maintain.  Even a good GM working for an org that trusts him/her is going to be hard-pressed to stay at the job long enough to really see through a run that lasts significantly longer than that, so you have management/ownership turnover to deal with at that point.  Remember how bad Steinbrenner was for the Yankees in the 80s?  He makes Angelos look like the patron saint of sports owners.

 

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

When I say bungling through the past 5 years, I'm including not touching the international draft at all.  That's part of the narrative here.  

That statement assumes that the Orioles would be proficient at signing international talent if given the chance.  Who knows.  But we might not be in the spot that we find ourselves in.

In regards to Manny's knee, it was reported that there wouldn't be long term issues.  They should have jumped all over it then.  

I consider international signings to be part of the bungling as well.  I also consider pretty much everything that happened in the 2014/2015 offseason to be part of the bungling.  Even if we go back in time and make the right moves, I just don't think there's any universe where our window is truly open in 2018 and 2019.  I do think that we are likely to have done better in our playoff runs had we invested more in international signings - because we would be more okay with trading our prospects, which means we would have gotten better deadline help, and not Gerardo Parra.  I also think that, in 2020, we would be more likely to be able to compete if we didn't bungle things.  So the bungling has given us the worst season in the history of baseball and pushed back our rebuild by at least 1 year.  Not an insignificant cost, of course.

Regarding Manny, You're not wrong.  Less aversion to discounted long-term deals for cost-controlled players should probably be a part of the new strategy.  Manny's of-the-charts talent should have been enough to secure him a deal, knee surgery or not.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

With really good drafting/player development, and the existence of a 2nd wild card, I think you can be in the thick of things more frequently.  Probably 4-5 years on, 3-4 years off.  Misses are really costly, of course, but if you keep trading, you can reload.  And if you get a string of hits, you can have a 5-8 year window of sustained success.  Past that it's pretty hard to maintain.  Even a good GM working for an org that trusts him/her is going to be hard-pressed to stay at the job long enough to really see through a run that lasts significantly longer than that, so you have management/ownership turnover to deal with at that point.  Remember how bad Steinbrenner was for the Yankees in the 80s?  He makes

 

I consider international signings to be part of the bungling as well.  I also consider pretty much everything that happened in the 2014/2015 offseason to be part of the bungling.  Even if we go back in time and make the right moves, I just don't think there's any universe where our window is truly open in 2018 and 2019.  I do think that we are likely to have done better in our playoff runs had we invested more in international signings - because we would be more okay with trading our prospects, which means we would have gotten better deadline help, and not Gerardo Parra.  I also think that, in 2020, we would be more likely to be able to compete if we didn't bungle things.  So the bungling has given us the worst season in the history of baseball and pushed back our rebuild by at least 1 year.  Not an insignificant cost, of course.

Regarding Manny, You're not wrong.  Less aversion to discounted long-term deals for cost-controlled players should probably be a part of the new strategy.  Manny's of-the-charts talent should have been enough to secure him a deal, knee surgery or not.

You bring up good points.  Maybe the down periods wouldn't be as bad or as long.  Maybe we'd be a 78 win team with massive upside, I think we'd be ok with that.  

But you're right, it's about discounted long term deals for cost controlled players.  Massive efforts to scout and sign in Latin America.  It's about building a truly great scouting department here in the States, too.  It's about not spending huge dollars in free agency unless it's on one player that can really put you over the top.  It's about not trading for a Gerardo Parra but trading for a Justin Verlander.  It's about not keeping aging veterans and trading them when they hit 30-32 for prospects no matter how big of a fan favorite they are.   It's about incredible communication to the fans about the vision and why you just traded your face of the franchise centerfielder.  

Most of all, IMO, it's about being brutally honest with yourself about where you are and your chances to compete for the long term instead of the present.  And even in the present, are you a WS contender or are you just trying to back into a wildcard spot?  Last year they should have just traded everyone at the deadline because after the hot start they just limped along.   Anyone who looked at that team knew they just didn't have the horses to do it.  It was a fringe wildcard team at best, and they kept it together for what?

[weams]

57 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

When I say bungling through the past 5 years, I'm including not touching the international draft at all.  That's part of the narrative here.  

That statement assumes that the Orioles would be proficient at signing international talent if given the chance.  Who knows.  But we might not be in the spot that we find ourselves in.

In regards to Manny's knee, it was reported that there wouldn't be long term issues.  They should have jumped all over it then.  

 

Bonds got MRSA.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Bonds got MRSA.

That doesn't sound like fun.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

That doesn't sound like fun.

Nope. Surgery is no big deal. Everything will be fine. 

[weams]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

You bring up good points.  Maybe the down periods wouldn't be as bad or as long.  Maybe we'd be a 78 win team with massive upside, I think we'd be ok with that.  

But you're right, it's about discounted long term deals for cost controlled players.  Massive efforts to scout and sign in Latin America.  It's about building a truly great scouting department here in the States, too.  It's about not spending huge dollars in free agency unless it's on one player that can really put you over the top.  It's about not trading for a Gerardo Parra but trading for a Justin Verlander.  It's about not keeping aging veterans and trading them when they hit 30-32 for prospects no matter how big of a fan favorite they are.   It's about incredible communication to the fans about the vision and why you just traded your face of the franchise centerfielder.  

Most of all, IMO, it's about being brutally honest with yourself about where you are and your chances to compete for the long term instead of the present.  And even in the present, are you a WS contender or are you just trying to back into a wildcard spot?  Last year they should have just traded everyone at the deadline because after the hot start they just limped along.   Anyone who looked at that team knew they just didn't have the horses to do it.  It was a fringe wildcard team at best, and they kept it together for what?

And while it was reported that ElAttrache had great hope for Manny and was right, It was terrifying for the rest of us. 

[Hallas]

13 minutes ago, weams said:

Nope. Surgery is no big deal. Everything will be fine. 

Maybe if the surgeon didn't sneeze during the surgery....

[TonySoprano]

Heard on 105.7. Dan on the rebuild. “Whether I'm doing that, or somebody else is doing that, it’s the right thing to do “