Who will get a better contract this winter, Markakis or Jones?

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Not surprising.  As much as we picked apart Jones over the past couple years for his declining skills, we shouldn't be shocked that he got the deal that he got.

And at the end of the day he's still going to be earning six times what the defending AL Cy Young award winner will be making.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And at the end of the day he's still going to be earning six times what the defending AL Cy Young award winner will be making.

Them's the breaks, I guess.  

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Chavez Ravine said:

This section of the market has really cratered. At least some of the teams playing in it are going to stumble into some nice value.

 

7 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Not surprising.  As much as we picked apart Jones over the past couple years for his declining skills, we shouldn't be shocked that he got the deal that he got.

For years my simple contract evaluator did just fine despite not having an input for age.  A guy coming off a 1-win season at 34 following several 3-win years was judged to be worth exactly the same as a 27-year-old with that resume.  And it worked pretty well, despite the fact that made no logical sense.

Not any more.  I've had to come up with a more complicated v2.0 that sees players in their 30s fall off rapidly and their expected contracts do the same.

I think if 2015 Nelson Cruz were a free agent today he'd get 2/20.

[Tx Oriole]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

Jones can make another $2 mm in incentives, $250 k for 250 at bats and each 50 PA thereafter up to 600.    And, $250 k if he gets traded.   Still a bit disappointing for him but at least he’s got a chance to earn more than Rasmus and Tillman did last year for us.

My goodness. $250 K would make me very happy. 

[weams]

On 8/20/2018 at 6:14 PM, weams said:

Adam will get a three year 30 million dollar deal. Nick a two 18. 

I already conceded my lunacy!

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, weams said:

I already conceded my lunacy!

In the 1988 Baseball Abstract, the last of Bill James' annual Abstracts, in an article entitled "Breaking the Wand", he listed the 10 most important things he'd learned over the 1976-88 period he'd being doing baseball research and writing.  #4 was "Ballplayers, as a group, reach their peak value much earlier and decline much more rapidly than people believe."

Who knew that this observation would take hold, suddenly, en masse, among Major League owners over the winter of 2018-19?  I guess there are a lot of things in baseball that take 30 years to be fully digested.  Firpo Marberry was the first real relief ace in the 1920s, but most teams didn't have a relief ace until the 50s.

[OFFNY]

On 8/20/2018 at 7:14 PM, weams said:

 

Adam will get a three years for $30 Million dollar deal, and Nick will get a two years for $18 Million inking. 

 

 

 

24 minutes ago, weams said:

 

I have already conceded my lunacy !!!

 

o

 

I have conceded a lot more than that.

I was against the Erik Bedard trade in 2008, and I was for the Chris Davis contract in 2016 ........ how about THAT for a pair of Aces ???

 

o

[foxfield]

8 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

 

 

o

 

I have conceded a lot more than that.

I was against the Erik Bedard trade in 2008, and I was for the Chris Davis contract in 2016 ........ how about THAT for a pair of Aces ???

 

o

Give that man a contract.  He loves his Orioles!!!

[SurhoffRules]

Through roughly 1/3 of the season, both Nick and Adam have played a similar number of games 56/53 and both are mainly in right field.

Nick slashing .278/.371/.423/.794 and Adam .273/.323/.498/.820. However, I guess due to park effect, Nick is 4 Runs better than replacement with the bat, whereas Adam is at -1. Nick is holding his own in the field and Adam's been dinged a bit for his glove and his baserunning.

All told, Nick is at .9 WAR and Adam at .1 WAR.  Nick is on pace to meet or exceed his production from last season for 4M, Adam is making 3M(up to 5M with his PA incentives).

With the cost of a free agent win somewhere north $10M (I think, not sure if this accounts for pitchers vs fielders), Nick would have to go off the rails to not exceed his contract value by a significant margin. Adam will have a bit tougher time given the higher offensive bar for his home park, but he could easily provide 3(to 5)M+ of value this season.

[Frobby]

I think the cost of a FA win has been steady at $8 mm the last few years, not $10 mm.    

Fangraphs has Nick at 0.7 fWAR ($5.4 mm) and Adam at 0.6 ($4.6 mm).    I think both teams are getting pretty good value so far.    

[SurhoffRules]

With the season winding down, Markakis finds himself on the DL but may get a few more ABs when he comes off. Assuming there's no significant improvement or collapse he'll probably finish around 100 OPS+ and 0.4-0.5 WAR in 104+ games on a $4M salary. I imagine he might find a team willing to play him next year if he wants to return in some capacity, although I wonder how much longer he'll play the majority of games in a season. I will say this, despite his ups and down in production, Nick has been remarkably healthy over the course of his career, playing an average of 150 games a year.

Adam has also kept himself on the field more than not since he stuck in the majors with Baltimore. He's sporting a 91 OPS+ for the season and 0.2 WAR in 124 games. He's hitting enough that he'll likely see a little bump in WAR before the seasons ends on his $3M contract.  Given the slow market for his services last year I don't imagine he'll see an increase in interested for his age 34 season this winter. There's probably still a spot for him, but I'd be hard pressed to see him as a starter next season.

TLDR: Nick has provided a bit more total value this year as his bat remains relevant into his mid thirties.  Both could find work next year but the odds of them finding starters work continues to decline. I'm a bit stumped as to why Nick is at -8 RField and Adam is -1 despite having a relatively similar looking defensive line in RF. Maybe park effect or some other input. I'm not all that familiar with the inner working of DWAR.

[webbrick2010]

I wouldn't pay either of them.

Plenty of guys around that will likely provide the same or better production at the ML minimum

[weams]

28 minutes ago, SurhoffRules said:

 

TLDR: Nick has provided a bit more total value this year as his bat remains relevant into his mid thirties.  Both could find work next year but the odds of them finding starters work continues to decline. I'm a bit stumped as to why Nick is at -8 RField and Adam is -1 despite having a relatively similar looking defensive line in RF. Maybe park effect or some other input. I'm not all that familiar with the inner working of DWAR.

The defensive inputs in these metrics are flawed. Therefore they can't be used to reasonably assess values. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, weams said:

The defensive inputs in these metrics are flawed. Therefore they can't be used to reasonably assess values. 

It's entirely plausible that Nick is really a -4 RFer and Jones is a +2.  Or -9 and -5.  Which changes the overall analysis not at all.

[weams]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's entirely plausible that Nick is really a -4 RFer and Jones is a +2.  Or -9 and -5.  Which changes the overall analysis not at all.

I was thinking Nick might still be  a neutral right fielder.  And with bad inputs, we don't know where that would leave Adam. Maybe -4? We don't know!