2014 Astros article tells what is going to happen with the O's and why

[wildcard]

Everyone should take the time to read this article.   

https://www.si.com/vault/2014/06/30/106479598/astromatic-baseball-houstons-grand-experiment

Its begins explaining that Luhnow and Medal both have a background in work in the casino industry.   They got experience understand how knowledge of the game and the odds improve the change of winning.  And then talks about how they apply that to baseball.  They will not away win but the analytics system they developed improves the odds on winning.

Quote

 

Luhnow and his men envisioned a decision tree, with that 56-win team at its roots and a sustainable championship club at its tip. Their only goal, with Crane's blessing, was to reach the top as quickly as they could. That meant every decision they made, no matter how painful, would be based upon the probability that it would be helpful in the long term. They would, in other words, hit on 16 against a seven every time. "We didn't want to be mediocre for a decade," says Elias. "We wanted to be really good as soon as possible."

They would not make cosmetic decisions, such as wasting money on a free agent or hanging on to a veteran who might instead be converted into future assets, in an effort to keep up appearances. 

"You look at how other organizations have done it, they've tried to maintain a .500 level as they prepare to be good in the future," says Luhnow. "That path is probably necessary in some markets. But it takes 10 years.

It is one thing to commit to only making decisions that will lead to a long-term goal, and another to figure out how to make those decisions. Blackjack is an exercise in hard probabilities. Evaluating baseball players is something else. Some information you can gather about a baseball player is hard: how fast he can throw a fastball, how quickly he can reach first base. But much of it is soft: how diligently he will work, how his power stroke might develop, how likely he is to become injured. "How do you combine the soft information with the hard information in a way that allows you to make the best decisions?" asks Luhnow. "That is the crux of what we're trying to do here."

To that end Mejdal and his analytics team—which has grown to four....created an evaluation system that boils down every piece of information the Astros have about prospects, and about every player for that matter, into a single language. The inputs include not only statistics but also information—much of it collected and evaluated by scouts—about a player's health and family history, his pitching mechanics or the shape of his swing, his personality. The system then runs regressions against a database that stretches back to at least 1997, when statistics for college players had just begun to be digitized. If scouts perceived past players to possess attributes similar to a current prospect, how did that prospect turn out? If a young pitcher's trunk rotates a bit earlier than is ideal, how likely were past pitchers with similar motions to get hurt?

The end result is expressed as a numerical projection which roughly translates into how many runs a player can be expected to produce compared with what the team is likely to have to pay him—a single value partly derived from a player's stats but mostly from scouting reports.

 

Later in the article it tells why Elias would probably never have selected Grayson Rodriguez in the first round last season.

Quote

TO CLUBS picking first overall—one-one, in baseball shorthand—high school pitchers are terrifying. They have displayed a greater chance of flaming out, due to injury or a failure to develop, than any other category of player. "There have been some wild successes," says Elias, "but the list of those picked high is littered with injuries and disappointments."

Very interesting article that tell why Elias will probably have the O's lose big time for few years and how the analytic system allows them to make the right decisions more times than not

[jtschrei]

Very interesting read. I'm assuming Elias laid out this plan to the AngelBros and they said, "that's our guy." 

I'm sold. 

[Bradysburns]

So going with the HS pitchers over and over in the first round is NOT a fantastic idea, necessarily? Someone should have told the Orioles... in 1999. 

You wouldn't think it'd take a NASA scientist to auger the risk with 1st round HS pitchers. 

Meanwhile, thank GOODNESS these guys will (apparently) be in charge of our upcoming draft and international signings (presuming we ramp that up). In fact, I suspect that the Orioles already being horrible (and having 1-1) was actually attractive to Elias. He's got a nice, clean slate to start his work... and probably three years of picking between 1 and 3, along with all the international stuff he can get going. 

This feels like a really great fit for both sides. 

[bpilktree67]

They built their team on prospects in the field and used that to acquire the pitchers in trades for the most part.  Even the pitchers they drafted early on failed to make any impact to the club.  I  love that they already have some major connections in the international market which will boost are ability to sign players in the future as they have been watching guys down there for sure for a few years that will be eligible this season and maybe a few guys that have flown under the radar and not signed yet. 

[Camden_yardbird]

Fangraphs also has two interviews with Elias (mobile so cant link right now) where goes extensively into his scouting background and how that plays into player development.

He talks a lot bbn about feel for the game and process, hiring former players at all levels because they understand what it was like to try and succeed in that environment.

Then turning that into picks and communication with the player development staff to make sure there is a consistent picture of what can make the performance for each prospect peak.

FWIW, I know a lot of people hope Brady is out of the picture or his influence is greatly reduced, but I think he and Elias would work well together in whatever capacity Brady may retain.  Elias seems to have a lot of respect for former players and I think if Brady can commit to the new paradigm (if he didn't already influence this hire) that it will work out.

[CallMeBrooksie]

33 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Very interesting article that tell why Elias will probably have the O's lose big time for few years and how the analytic system allows them to make the right decisions more times than not

We are going to lose big-time with or without Elias the next few years. That's a fact.

Could be one reason Elias was attracted to the job in the first place. He doesn't have to be the one to come in and get rid of the fan-favorites.

[Mooreisbetter27]

Nice article.  I do find it relatively ironic that a big deal was made out of who they were picking and the fact that they picked a HS pitcher 1-1... but he ended up  not even signing. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Later in the article it tells why Elias would probably never have selected Grayson Rodriguez in the first round last season.

The quote talks about picking a HS pitcher at 1:1.   1:11 is a different proposition.   HS pitchers are equally risky there, but in any event you aren’t getting a sure thing at 1:11 compared to what you get at 1:1.

The Astros picked a HS pitcher at 1:41 in 2012, 1:1 in 2014, and 1:17 in 2016.   The 2014 pick was made weeks before this article was written.  So just because picking a HS kid 1:1 is terrifying doesn’t mean these guys would never do it.    They did it (Brady Aiken) — and couldn’t sign the guy.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The quote talks about picking a HS pitcher at 1:1.   1:11 is a different proposition.   HS pitchers are equally risky there, but in any event you aren’t getting a sure thing at 1:11 compared to what you get at 1:1.

The Astros picked a HS pitcher at 1:41 in 2012, 1:1 in 2014, and 1:17 in 2016.   The 2014 pick was made weeks before this article was written.  So just because picking a HS kid 1:1 is terrifying doesn’t mean these guys would never do it.    They did it (Brady Aiken) — and couldn’t sign the guy.   

But that was an issue with his medicals so not likely to apply here.

[NCRaven]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

But that was an issue with his medicals so not likely to apply here.

I see what you did there.  :-)

[Moose Milligan]

I read that article, I didn't see any mention of what was going to happen with the Orioles.  @wildcard I want my 10 minutes back.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I read that article, I didn't see any mention of what was going to happen with the Orioles.  @wildcard I want my 10 minutes back.

If you can't see how this article applies to what Elias is likely to do with the Orioles...............................

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, wildcard said:

If you can't see how this article applies to what Elias is likely to do with the Orioles...............................

I was being facetious.  https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/facetious

I hope that's what will happen for the Orioles.  I'm not banking on it though.

[Tony-OH]

I read that article and was getting all excited, until I saw that Mejdal's system told them that Brady Aiken was the best player available to be drafted 1-1 in 2014 over their other whittled down candidates, Carlos Rondon, Alex Jackson, and Tyler Kolek. Not only Aiken not sign, he's been a bad pro so far with almost no control/command in an Indians system that drafted him 17th overall the next year.

All but Rondon, who has been a decent starter for the White Sox, have not been very good pros. This is isn't a shot at Mejdal's system just to say no system is full proof. I personally don't believe a system works for high school players because there are too many wild cards. 

Tell you what though, that area scout missed pretty badly on Aiken. 

Area scout Brad Budzinski was similarly unequivocal about Aiken, a 6'4" lefty from San Diego's Cathedral Catholic High who had committed to play at UCLA and who threw a mid-90s fastball to go with a plus curveball and changeup. "I love everything about this kid," Budzinski said. "To me, we're getting possibly the next Andy Pettitte. Makeup-wise, I feel like it's Peyton Manning on a surfboard. A lot of people say they want to be a Hall of Famer, but I believe for this kid it's a realistic goal."

"If the stuff stayed the same as it is right now," said Post, "it's more than enough to pitch and have success in the big leagues."

 

[Can_of_corn]

20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I read that article, I didn't see any mention of what was going to happen with the Orioles.  @wildcard I want my 10 minutes back.

You know it didn't take you more than eight minutes to read that.

Stop trying to scam WC into two extra minutes of life.