2014 Astros article tells what is going to happen with the O's and why

[Camden_yardbird]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You know it didn't take you more than eight minutes to read that.

Stop trying to scam WC into two extra minutes of life.

Worth watching is that the Elias/Midjal system of drafting seems to hit on picks 1-3 pretty consistently but not much after that, at least looking back to 2013 when he took over.

Obviously I haven't done any deep analysis but this could be something to watch.

[now]

Thanks for the tip, @wildcard. A good read. This is what jumps out at me:

Quote

they had traded away the last of their mature assets in closer Jose Veras, outfielder Justin Maxwell and starter Bud Norris. 

Josh Hader, anyone?

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I read that article and was getting all excited, until I saw that Mejdal's system told them that Brady Aiken was the best player available to be drafted 1-1 in 2014 over their other whittled down candidates, Carlos Rondon, Alex Jackson, and Tyler Kolek. Not only Aiken not sign, he's been a bad pro so far with almost no control/command in an Indians system that drafted him 17th overall the next year.

All but Rondon, who has been a decent starter for the White Sox, have not been very good pros. This is isn't a shot at Mejdal's system just to say no system is full proof. I personally don't believe a system works for high school players because there are too many wild cards. 

Tell you what though, that area scout missed pretty badly on Aiken. 

Area scout Brad Budzinski was similarly unequivocal about Aiken, a 6'4" lefty from San Diego's Cathedral Catholic High who had committed to play at UCLA and who threw a mid-90s fastball to go with a plus curveball and changeup. "I love everything about this kid," Budzinski said. "To me, we're getting possibly the next Andy Pettitte. Makeup-wise, I feel like it's Peyton Manning on a surfboard. A lot of people say they want to be a Hall of Famer, but I believe for this kid it's a realistic goal."

"If the stuff stayed the same as it is right now," said Post, "it's more than enough to pitch and have success in the big leagues."

 

Meydal's system and the scout were both right.   Aiken in his senior was a top prospect.  It got him drafted.   But the shoulder problems that were found in the team physical kept the Astros from signing him.   I don't know that shoulder changed him so he didn't do well with other clubs but it seem likely.   Kind of like Bundy throw 100 mph his senior year but after arm problems he only hits 94 on occasion now.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Meydal's system and the scout were both right.   Aiken in his senior was a top prospect.  It got him drafted.   But the shoulder problems that were found in the team physical kept the Astros from signing him.   I don't know that shoulder changed him so he didn't do well with other clubs but it seem likely.   Kind of like Bundy throw 100 mph his senior year but after arm problems he only hits 94 on occasion now.

Yikes man, before you try and go against me already, why don't you tell me how the system didn't messed up on the other two as well? I'm all about Meydal and his system that led to the selection of some great players like Correa and Bregman, but it's not fool proof. 

I also hate to break it to you that arm problems had nothing to do with Bundy going from 98 to 91. It may have something to do with 94 - 91, but there is a prevailing theory on Bundy's high school velocity and injuries aren't what cause him to lose so much velocity.

Regardless, the Astros should have never have drafted him with the number one overpick if there was any concerns over injuries.

 

[atomic]

I think Beckham and Joseph are as good as gone with Mancini not far behind. 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Meydal's system and the scout were both right.   Aiken in his senior was a top prospect.  It got him drafted.   But the shoulder problems that were found in the team physical kept the Astros from signing him.   I don't know that shoulder changed him so he didn't do well with other clubs but it seem likely.   Kind of like Bundy throw 100 mph his senior year but after arm problems he only hits 94 on occasion now.

Bundy never hit 100 in game situations in HS.

 

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Yikes man, before you try and go against me already, why don't you tell me how the system didn't messed up on the other two as well? I'm all about Meydal and his system that led to the selection of some great players like Correa and Bregman, but it's not fool proof. 

I also hate to break it to you that arm problems had nothing to do with Bundy going from 98 to 91. It may have something to do with 94 - 91, but there is a prevailing theory on Bundy's high school velocity and injuries aren't what cause him to lose so much velocity.

Regardless, the Astros should have never have drafted him with the number one overpick if there was any concerns over injuries.

 

I have no way of knowing about the other pitchers.

This article says that the Astros could not exam Aiken before he was drafted.  During the after draft exam it showed a abnormality in the elbow that could mean TJ surgery would not help him.  The Astros believed that it would cause problem in his career    That was just after the 2014 draft.   March 2015 Aikens had TJ surgery . He has never been able to get back to where he was in his senior year.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/23/houston-astros-number-one-pick-brady-aiken-inside-story

The article on Meydal system says they will not get every decision right.  But on the whole if it gest most of them right, its quite a system.  After all betting probability is gambling.  And that is what predicting what young players will do is all about. Educated gambling.

 

 

[wildcard]

33 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Bundy never hit 100 in game situations in HS.

 

Did I say it was in a game?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Did I say it was in a game?

Nope, just clearing it up for everyone else.

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The article on Meydal system says they will not get every decision right.  But on the whole if it gest most of them right, its quite a system.  After all betting probability is gambling.  And that is what predicting what young players will do is all about. Educated gambling.

Yep.    This is why I get annoyed at people who second guessed Duquette when Nelson Cruz was a complete stud at ages 34-38.    Cruz beat the odds by an astronomical margin.  I guarantee you Elias wouldn’t have signed him.  But sometimes guys beat the odds.

[Tx Oriole]

4 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Fangraphs also has two interviews with Elias (mobile so cant link right now) where goes extensively into his scouting background and how that plays into player development.

He talks a lot bbn about feel for the game and process, hiring former players at all levels because they understand what it was like to try and succeed in that environment.

Then turning that into picks and communication with the player development staff to make sure there is a consistent picture of what can make the performance for each prospect peak.

FWIW, I know a lot of people hope Brady is out of the picture or his influence is greatly reduced, but I think he and Elias would work well together in whatever capacity Brady may retain.  Elias seems to have a lot of respect for former players and I think if Brady can commit to the new paradigm (if he didn't already influence this hire) that it will work out.

I disagree. I think Brady staying in the O's organization would be disaster. That man got to go.

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Fangraphs also has two interviews with Elias (mobile so cant link right now) where goes extensively into his scouting background and how that plays into player development.

He talks a lot bbn about feel for the game and process, hiring former players at all levels because they understand what it was like to try and succeed in that environment.

Then turning that into picks and communication with the player development staff to make sure there is a consistent picture of what can make the performance for each prospect peak.

FWIW, I know a lot of people hope Brady is out of the picture or his influence is greatly reduced, but I think he and Elias would work well together in whatever capacity Brady may retain.  Elias seems to have a lot of respect for former players and I think if Brady can commit to the new paradigm (if he didn't already influence this hire) that it will work out.

Ask Dan how well Brady worked out.   Even if the undercutting aspect of his ill defined role could be set aside,  do you think the Houston Astros, or any other top baseball organization would give Brady Anderson a job of influence?  The front office needs to be completely cleaned out and I am tired of former players who were owner favorites having an ongoing presence forever in the new front office.  Brady Anderson offers absolutely nothing that Mike Elias could not find from any number of people who are much more talented baseball analytics wise and who would certainly be more likely to stay on the same page philosophically when tough, controversial decisions get made.   I would thank Brady for his service and welcome him as a former Oriole at any symbolic functions.   But as a key decision influencer in the new front office?  NO! 

[VeveJones007]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I read that article and was getting all excited, until I saw that Mejdal's system told them that Brady Aiken was the best player available to be drafted 1-1 in 2014 over their other whittled down candidates, Carlos Rondon, Alex Jackson, and Tyler Kolek. Not only Aiken not sign, he's been a bad pro so far with almost no control/command in an Indians system that drafted him 17th overall the next year.

All but Rondon, who has been a decent starter for the White Sox, have not been very good pros. This is isn't a shot at Mejdal's system just to say no system is full proof. I personally don't believe a system works for high school players because there are too many wild cards. 

Tell you what though, that area scout missed pretty badly on Aiken. 

Area scout Brad Budzinski was similarly unequivocal about Aiken, a 6'4" lefty from San Diego's Cathedral Catholic High who had committed to play at UCLA and who threw a mid-90s fastball to go with a plus curveball and changeup. "I love everything about this kid," Budzinski said. "To me, we're getting possibly the next Andy Pettitte. Makeup-wise, I feel like it's Peyton Manning on a surfboard. A lot of people say they want to be a Hall of Famer, but I believe for this kid it's a realistic goal."

"If the stuff stayed the same as it is right now," said Post, "it's more than enough to pitch and have success in the big leagues."

 

I’m not sure that’s the correct takeaway. I would go with “they blew a first overall pick and still won a title in 5 years.” They obviously did a lot of things exceptionally  well.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, VeveJones007 said:

I’m not sure that’s the correct takeaway. I would go with “they blew a first overall pick and still won a title in 5 years.” They obviously did a lot of things exceptionally  well.

What takeaway is that? I said I'm all for his system, just that it's not fool proof. That's a 100% correct statement that I'm sure Mejdal would agree with.

[VeveJones007]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

What takeaway is that? I said I'm all for his system, just that it's not fool proof. That's a 100% correct statement that I'm sure Mejdal would agree with.

“I read that article and was getting all excited, until I saw that Mejdal's system told them that Brady Aiken was the best player available to be drafted 1-1 in 2014.”

You just acknowledged that no system is perfect, so I just found it odd that you were suddenly less excited after one miss. Focusing on one move misses the whole point of the philosophy.