Austin Hays = George Springer?

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Exactly my view.    It makes no sense at all for Hays to be on the OD roster.    To me, the interesting thing will be if they start him in AA again, or move him to AAA.    Either way, if he hits the way he did in 2017, I expect he will spend some time in Baltimore this year.   Whether that’s in July or September, I don’t know.     But I doubt it’s sooner than July no matter what he does.   

So. He has to be optioned. That is the only reason I can think of to start opening day. I do not project him as a super start at all so I suspect service time is of no issue to me. If you keep optionablity in play, he could have increased value towards a time of contention. The only reason I could think of. I doubt development is going to be an issue for him. He will either hit or he'll miss. He will turn 24 this season. 

[rudyrooster]

I would like to think the Orioles will take their best (most productive) players north following Spring Training.  "Service time" be damned.

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, rudyrooster said:

I would like to think the Orioles will take their best (most productive) players north following Spring Training.  "Service time" be damned.

I don't see that happening. The focus is probably to have the best team together for the 2022 season.  Those players should have 3 to 5 productive years together.    So if holding some players at AAA a little longer to delay their service is necessary, then so be it.

[weams]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't see that happening. The focus is probably to have the best team together for the 2022 season.  Those players should have 3 to 5 productive years together.    So if holding some players at AAA a little longer to delay their service is necessary, then so be it.

We have no stars. 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Exactly my view.    It makes no sense at all for Hays to be on the OD roster.    To me, the interesting thing will be if they start him in AA again, or move him to AAA.    Either way, if he hits the way he did in 2017, I expect he will spend some time in Baltimore this year.   Whether that’s in July or September, I don’t know.     But I doubt it’s sooner than July no matter what he does.   

If Elias follows the " Houston plan"  there will be lot of trades in July.   That will create spots for the younger players.  I posted this before but a cut down version fit here as well.  These were Houston 2012 trades.

March 20, 2012: Catcher Humberto Quintero Traded by the Houston Astros with Jason Bourgeois to the Kansas City Royals for a player to be named later and Kevin Chapman. The Kansas City Royals sent D'Andre Toney (minors) (June 10, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.

July 4, 2012: Carlos Lee Traded by the Houston Astros to the Miami Marlins for Matt Dominguez and Rob Rasmussen

July 20, 2012: JA Happ Traded by the Houston Astros with David Carpenter and Brandon Lyon to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later, Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, Joe Musgrove, Carlos Perez, David Rollins and Asher Wojciechowski. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Kevin Comer (minors) (August 16, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the tr

July 21, 2012: SP Brett Myers Traded by the Houston Astros with cash to the Chicago White Sox for a player to be named later, Matt Heidenreich (minors) and Blair Walters (minors). The Chicago White Sox sent Chris Devenski (August 3, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.

July 24, 2012: SP Wandy Rodriguez Traded by the Houston Astros to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Colton Cain (minors), Robbie Grossman and Rudy Owens

July 29, 2012: 3B Chris Johnson Traded by the Houston Astros to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Bobby Borchering (minors) and Marc Krauss. 

I could see Cobb, Cashner, Givens, Villar, Trumbo and Bleier all being traded in July for the best prospects available if not before that time. 

 

 

 

 

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, weams said:

We have no stars. 

Look into the future my friend.  We have no stars now.   Hays #21 prospect pre 2018,  Diaz #73 prospect  pre 2018.   DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez both have a chance to be stars.  Here is Luke writing about DL Hall:  "You don’t need to use much imagination to see three plus pitches. In addition to the stuff, Hall is a bulldog on the mound. A fierce competitor that has the extra bit of confidence you look for in a high level athlete." 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Look into the future my friend.  We have no stars now.   Hays #21 prospect pre 2018,  Diaz #73 prospect  pre 2018.   DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez both have a chance to be stars.  Here is Luke writing about DL Hall:  "You don’t need to use much imagination to see three plus pitches. In addition to the stuff, Hall is a bulldog on the mound. A fierce competitor that has the extra bit of confidence you look for in a high level athlete." 

You just never know.   I think there are 6-10 guys in our organization who might meet the definition of a star if they reach their ceiling.    But for any one of them, their odds of reaching their ceiling (or close) are well under 50%.    Hopefully with 6-10 candidates, a couple of them will.    We’ll see.

[Number5]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

We have no stars now. 

NSFW.  I don't see no stars.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, rudyrooster said:

I would like to think the Orioles will take their best (most productive) players north following Spring Training.  "Service time" be damned.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/jake-fox-is-more-proof-that-spring-training-numbers-dont-count/

[theocean]

1 hour ago, weams said:

We have no stars. 

We at least have one in Gary Thorne. 

[weams]

4 hours ago, theocean said:

We at least have one in Gary Thorne. 

He still ours?

[Moose Milligan]

What are we going to do when Elias doesn't have the exact same thing he had for breakfast on, say, May 3rd, 2019 as he did on May 3rd, 2012?  

[wildbillhiccup]

I'd personally like to at least see what Hays does in spring training before I commit to seasoning him in the minors another year. If he still looks lost then stick to the plan. If he shows signs of life then why not give him a shot? 

[foxfield]

On 11/23/2018 at 2:07 PM, wildcard said:

If Elias follows the " Houston plan"  there will be lot of trades in July.   That will create spots for the younger players.  I posted this before but a cut down version fit here as well.  These were Houston 2012 trades.

March 20, 2012: Catcher Humberto Quintero Traded by the Houston Astros with Jason Bourgeois to the Kansas City Royals for a player to be named later and Kevin Chapman. The Kansas City Royals sent D'Andre Toney (minors) (June 10, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.

July 4, 2012: Carlos Lee Traded by the Houston Astros to the Miami Marlins for Matt Dominguez and Rob Rasmussen

July 20, 2012: JA Happ Traded by the Houston Astros with David Carpenter and Brandon Lyon to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later, Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, Joe Musgrove, Carlos Perez, David Rollins and Asher Wojciechowski. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Kevin Comer (minors) (August 16, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the tr

July 21, 2012: SP Brett Myers Traded by the Houston Astros with cash to the Chicago White Sox for a player to be named later, Matt Heidenreich (minors) and Blair Walters (minors). The Chicago White Sox sent Chris Devenski (August 3, 2012) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.

July 24, 2012: SP Wandy Rodriguez Traded by the Houston Astros to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Colton Cain (minors), Robbie Grossman and Rudy Owens

July 29, 2012: 3B Chris Johnson Traded by the Houston Astros to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Bobby Borchering (minors) and Marc Krauss. 

I could see Cobb, Cashner, Givens, Villar, Trumbo and Bleier all being traded in July for the best prospects available if not before that time. 

 

 

 

 

While it is helpful to get generic ideas, it continues to be risky to lay out expectations to follow a script.  Nothing you lay out above was meaningful to the "Houston Plan".  And the "Houston Plan" was not immediately proceeded by the trading of essentially all of the most valuable trade chips for prospects.  Furthermore, unless they significantly raise their value, most of the 5 names you list will not bring back meaningful prospects without the Orioles eating cash.  Not saying there is no value....

Secondly, Elias was not the architect of the "Houston Plan" but rather one of its implementors.  All of us I think are excited and optimistic about what is nothing short of a tremendous sea change in Baltimore.  But all of us would be well served not create false benchmarks to judge results or set expectations.

Finally, I would honestly like to think that it is possible, that in hiring someone who was part of a successful rebuild, that they were able to articulate to ownership some things that they learned along the way that can help make them smarter and more efficient this time around.  Houston is not small to mid market.  Houston is not in the AL East.  Houston did not have Chris Davis.  

I think we all should familiarize ourselves with how Houston did it.  And I appreciate that you and others have been so helpful to enlighten us.  But I continue to caution setting an expectation that says this is what we are going to see.  We may see more trades, in July or before.  We may even see some names moved that Elias just identified as "core".  The email after all simply stated that there are pieces of the next winning team already here...."Like" Bundy, Mancini, Givens and Mullins.

This isn't the operations manual of a NASA space flight where they literally list the step by step details from beginning to end.  There is no 1,762 step manual that Elias is bringing from Houston to fix the Orioles.  If so, the plan makes no account for Chris Davis.

 

On 11/23/2018 at 7:07 PM, Moose Milligan said:

What are we going to do when Elias doesn't have the exact same thing he had for breakfast on, say, May 3rd, 2019 as he did on May 3rd, 2012?  

Of course our new GM's first move was to hire a NASA trained scientist.  So....yeah...that's a counterpoint.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, foxfield said:

While it is helpful to get generic ideas, it continues to be risky to lay out expectations to follow a script.  Nothing you lay out above was meaningful to the "Houston Plan".  And the "Houston Plan" was not immediately proceeded by the trading of essentially all of the most valuable trade chips for prospects.  Furthermore, unless they significantly raise their value, most of the 5 names you list will not bring back meaningful prospects without the Orioles eating cash.  Not saying there is no value....

Secondly, Elias was not the architect of the "Houston Plan" but rather one of its implementors.  All of us I think are excited and optimistic about what is nothing short of a tremendous sea change in Baltimore.  But all of us would be well served not create false benchmarks to judge results or set expectations.

Finally, I would honestly like to think that it is possible, that in hiring someone who was part of a successful rebuild, that they were able to articulate to ownership some things that they learned along the way that can help make them smarter and more efficient this time around.  Houston is not small to mid market.  Houston is not in the AL East.  Houston did not have Chris Davis.  

I think we all should familiarize ourselves with how Houston did it.  And I appreciate that you and others have been so helpful to enlighten us.  But I continue to caution setting an expectation that says this is what we are going to see.  We may see more trades, in July or before.  We may even see some names moved that Elias just identified as "core".  The email after all simply stated that there are pieces of the next winning team already here...."Like" Bundy, Mancini, Givens and Mullins.

This isn't the operations manual of a NASA space flight where they literally list the step by step details from beginning to end.  There is no 1,762 step manual that Elias is bringing from Houston to fix the Orioles.  If so, the plan makes no account for Chris Davis.

 

Of course our new GM's first move was to hire a NASA trained scientist.  So....yeah...that's a counterpoint.

Actually the Astros did trade two of their best trade chip at the 2011 trade deadline prior to Luhnow taking over.

July 31, 2011: Michael BrounTraded by the Houston Astros with cash to the Atlanta Braves for Juan Abreu, Paul Clemens, Brett Oberholtzer and Jordan Schafer.

July 29, 2011: Pence Traded by the Houston Astros with cash to the Philadelphia Phillies for a player to be named later, Jarred Cosart, Jon Singleton and Josh Zeid. The Philadelphia Phillies sent Domingo Santana (August 15, 2011) to the Houston Astros to complete the trade.