Dumping a Bad Contract. Is the Bar About to be Set?

[Can_of_corn]

23 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Davis is owed $92mm over the next four years, of which $24mm is deferred, plus $18mm in deferred money from the first three years of the deal. The $42M in deferred money is interest-free, and is to be paid in 10 installments of $3.5M annually each July 1, 2023-32, and five installments of $1.4M each July 1, 2033-37.

Cano is owed $120mm over the next five years. None of it is deferred.

So, the AAV for Davis is $23mm and the AAV for Cano is $24mm. Cano has one more year on his deal. 

I'd rather have Cano than Davis, even though he is owed more money and will be under contract until he is 40. The Mariners might be convinced that they'd be better off paying Davis $17mm each year with the rest deferred - but, probably not.

I don't see Cano accepting a trade to Baltimore in the first place.

[mdbdotcom]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see Cano accepting a trade to Baltimore in the first place.

I don't either.

[TonySoprano]

14 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think the bar is about to be set for what it's going to take to dump a REALLY bad contract. 

Cano (35 years old) is set to make $24M a year (adjusted) through 2023. 

Davis (32 years old) is set to make $21M a year (adjusted) through 2022. 

 

Adrian Gonzalez' 7 year deal with the Red Sox was dumped on the Dodgers in 2012.  The Dodgers took on $130K from 2013-18 + pro-rated shared of his $21M deal in 2012.  Even though he was traded to the Braves in 2018, the Dodgers paid his $22M salary.  In the 9 player trade, Boston unloaded a total of $250M on L.A.

[murph]

14 hours ago, andrewochs615 said:

Wasn't he just taking something that although was on the banned list he was taking it to recover from surgery? 

Pretty sure he was taking Lasix,  which is a diuretic. And I believe it is on the banned list as a masking agent.    

[foxfield]

36 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Adrian Gonzalez' 7 year deal with the Red Sox was dumped on the Dodgers in 2012.  The Dodgers took on $130K from 2013-18 + pro-rated shared of his $21M deal in 2012.  Even though he was traded to the Braves in 2018, the Dodgers paid his $22M salary.  In the 9 player trade, Boston unloaded a total of $250M on L.A.

Arguably one of the best deals in recent memory.

[wildbillhiccup]

34 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Adrian Gonzalez' 7 year deal with the Red Sox was dumped on the Dodgers in 2012.  The Dodgers took on $130K from 2013-18 + pro-rated shared of his $21M deal in 2012.  Even though he was traded to the Braves in 2018, the Dodgers paid his $22M salary.  In the 9 player trade, Boston unloaded a total of $250M on L.A.

If Cano isn't a good comparison then Gonzalez probably isn't either. He was still a productive player when he was traded to the Dodgers. His power had dropped off, but he was still driving in runs and hitting for average. He also had a few really good years with the Dodgers after the trade. I guess the takeaway really is how epically awful the Chris Davis situation really is. 

[wildbillhiccup]

13 hours ago, weams said:

Nope. He's always been a ROIDER. They all have their excuses. 

I agree and so do some of his former teammates. When asked about his suspension this is what Mark Teixeira had to say...

"Yeah, I don't really want to get into too much detail. I love Robbie. I'm just not surprised," said Teixeira, a baseball analyst for ESPN since retiring after the 2016 season. "I don't really want to go too much further, but I think a lot of people are kind of saying the same thing."

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

If Cano isn't a good comparison then Gonzalez probably isn't either. He was still a productive player when he was traded to the Dodgers. His power had dropped off, but he was still driving in runs and hitting for average. He also had a few really good years with the Dodgers after the trade. I guess the takeaway really is how epically awful the Chris Davis situation really is. 

Probably the worst contracts that were traded were Matt Kemp and Prince Fielder.  Kemp was traded three years into an 8/$160 mm deal after producing 4.7 rWAR in the first three seasons; he’s produced 0.5 rWAR in the four seasons since he was first traded (he’s been traded twice more since).   The Dodgers ate $32 mm in the Kemp trade.  Fielder was traded two years into a 9/$214 mm deal after producing 6.5 rWAR the first two years (but only 1.8 the second year); he produced 0.2 rWAR thereafter.    The Tigers ate $30 mm in the Fielder trade.    

[LookinUp]

Cano, who was an average prospect who somehow blew up in NY into one of the elite hitters in the game, was on roids? The hell you say!

W/r/t Davis, here's my take:

1. He's terrible.
2. He's way over paid, by like 100% of his contract.
3. He seems like a really good guy.

That's the kicker (#3). People care about the dude and want to give him a chance, even though he's stealing money. I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the O's give Davis the 2019 season to work on a total rebuild of his swing. If they're smart, that will occur on the 60-day DL in Sarasota, but at some point it will be in Baltimore. The best case scenario with this approach is Davis has a hot streak and we can dump his contract and get away from about 30-40% of the cost. That's a dream scenario and about 99% unlikely, but it's worth it to Elias and company to try in a season that will almost certainly end up with sub 70 wins.

[TheOtherRipken]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Cano, who was an average prospect who somehow blew up in NY into one of the elite hitters in the game, was on roids? The hell you say!

W/r/t Davis, here's my take:

1. He's terrible.
2. He's way over paid, by like 100% of his contract.
3. He seems like a really good guy.

That's the kicker (#3). People care about the dude and want to give him a chance, even though he's stealing money. I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the O's give Davis the 2019 season to work on a total rebuild of his swing. If they're smart, that will occur on the 60-day DL in Sarasota, but at some point it will be in Baltimore. The best case scenario with this approach is Davis has a hot streak and we can dump his contract and get away from about 30-40% of the cost. That's a dream scenario and about 99% unlikely, but it's worth it to Elias and company to try in a season that will almost certainly end up with sub 70 wins.

I don’t think a hot streak less than a year and a half minimum will do it. 

[TonySoprano]

4 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

If Cano isn't a good comparison then Gonzalez probably isn't either. He was still a productive player when he was traded to the Dodgers. His power had dropped off, but he was still driving in runs and hitting for average. He also had a few really good years with the Dodgers after the trade. I guess the takeaway really is how epically awful the Chris Davis situation really is. 

I agree that both Cano and Gonzalez produced and as such the situations are comparable which is why I noted it. I am fully aware of the concept of sunk costs. Let’s see if the Yankees cut Ellsbury and eat his contract as their availabille resources are much larger.  Then we can get into a discussion how much of the Davis contract the Orioles should swallow.  

[clapdiddy]

Personally, I think our best bet is for the new regime to try to "fix" him.  If he could be a .230/.340/.450 type of player for the next few years, that has some value.   I guess the thing that worries me most is what we will do with Mountcastle.   Is he going to be groomed for the outfield?  If not, first base would seem like the next best place.

EDIT:  Also...I don't expect Davis to get "fixed".   It's just wishful thinking.

[wildbillhiccup]

26 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

I agree that both Cano and Gonzalez produced and as such the situations are comparable which is why I noted it. I am fully aware of the concept of sunk costs. Let’s see if the Yankees cut Ellabury and eat his contract as their availabille resources are much larger.  Then we can get into a discussion how much of the Davis contract the Orioles should swallow.  

Wasn't trying to lecture or condescend. Sorry if it came across that way. Also agree 100% on Elsbury being a better comp if the Yanks are able to move him. 

[wildbillhiccup]

26 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Personally, I think our best bet is for the new regime to try to "fix" him.  If he could be a .230/.340/.450 type of player for the next few years, that has some value.   I guess the thing that worries me most is what we will do with Mountcastle.   Is he going to be groomed for the outfield?  If not, first base would seem like the next best place.

EDIT:  Also...I don't expect Davis to get "fixed".   It's just wishful thinking.

All signs point to the team taking this approach. If he still stinks going into the all star break though I think all bets are off. 

[clapdiddy]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

All signs point to the team taking this approach. If he still stinks going into the all star break though I think all bets are off. 

Yup...could definitely see him released if he continues to stink.