The Pitching

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Redskins Rick said:

I like strikeouts as much as the next fan does.

But concentrating on strikes can drive the pitch count and the walk ratio up.

Barely.  Mark Buehrle (5.1 K/9) averaged 15.0 pitches per inning.  Randy Johnson (10.6 K/9) averaged 16.3.  Two of the most extreme ends of the scale end up with about 12 additional pitches per nine.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Even since Camden Yards was built, the fans and talk shows have been obsessed with groundballpitchers.

They signed Scotty Erickson back in the day, because he was one.

I think that the idea that groundball pitchers are necessary in hitter's parks is one of those truisms that have little backing in data or evidence.  In fact, groundball pitchers usually have higher HR/BIP ratios and might be less effective in a home run park than a strikeout pitcher.

[weams]

9 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I like strikeouts as much as the next fan does.

But concentrating on strikes can drive the pitch count and the walk ratio up.

I don't care about pitch counts in today's game. At all. 

[Redskins Rick]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Barely.  Mark Buehrle (5.1 K/9) averaged 15.0 pitches per inning.  Randy Johnson (10.6 K/9) averaged 16.3.  Two of the most extreme ends of the scale end up with about 12 additional pitches per nine.

True, but they were better pitchers with great control. Not every pitcher is that good.

 

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think that the idea that groundball pitchers are necessary in hitter's parks is one of those truisms that have little backing in data or evidence.  In fact, groundball pitchers usually have higher HR/BIP ratios and might be less effective in a home run park than a strikeout pitcher.

agreed

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, weams said:

I don't care about pitch counts in today's game. At all. 

What Davey Johnson used to complain about. Sometimes guys couldnt even get to the 5th inning if their main focus was on the K.

[weams]

7 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

What Davey Johnson used to complain about. Sometimes guys couldnt even get to the 5th inning if their main focus was on the K.

I think Davey is outdated.

[Ohfan67]

The 

28 minutes ago, interloper said:

Elias mentioned a "secret sauce" in regards to increasing strikeouts. Wouldn't elaborate in the Melewski article, obviously, but a fun tidbit.

Where's that giant syringe emoji when you need it.  Ahh, there it is!

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, weams said:

I think Davey is outdated.

Davey grew up with Earl, who wanted four starters who could throw 275 innings a piece. Scott McGregor's ERA today, throwing 85 mph like he did 35 years ago, would be like 17.00.

[DrungoHazewood]

19 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

True, but they were better pitchers with great control. Not every pitcher is that good.

 

agreed

Daniel Cabrera threw just over 17 pitches per nine.  So the difference between wild and hard throwing and ineffective and completely in control and pitching to contact is about 20 pitches per nine.  The difference between any two reasonably decent pitchers is going to be less than 10 pitches per nine, and probably 4-6 pitches per average 2018 start.

[Ohfan67]

Here's an interesting study that represents modern "analytics" and could be an ingredient to the secret sauce recipes of strikeouts: https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa103

 

The Journal of Sports Analytics is pretty cool. I didn't know this journal existed until this morning. If you click on the journal link there's a new article analyzing curling. Curling! Pretty wild. 

 

Anyway, the point of the paper I linked above is that reducing the pitch-to-pitch correlation increases strikeouts significantly. The abstract is really poorly written, an excellent example of "stat speak" and "science speak" for students NOT to emulate (I spend a large chunk of my professional life professing the value of straightforward, plain language science writing), so you have to skim the article to really understand the take home message. This is an example of the kind of analytics that could really help some pitchers and catchers. Sometimes I want to pull my hair out when you see the same pitch thrown three or four times in a row and this study suggests my screamed instructions to the television are justified (the desire to see a varied pitch selection, that is, not screaming at the tv per se). It's also an example of where analytics and baseball lore spouted by announcers and color commentary guys does not mesh (save the changeup for the second or third time through the order, etc.). This journal is pretty fun to skim, but publications like this are probably far behind the state-of-the-art developed by teams with top analytical departments. These papers mainly look like fun side projects by scientists and engineers or the results of masters theses and the like in some areas. The hottest work is going to come from teams like the Astros and they are not going to publish that stuff for all to see...at least not until it is outdated. 

 

p.s. good analytics produced by a team would include analyses on the exact pitch variations that work best for a given pitcher and batter combo, for example. Maybe even for that stadium, the catcher, etc. With pitchfx and other data sources the number of variables that could be explored is huge. Maybe the green monster makes a certain pitch sequence a tiny bit harder to detect/distinguish for a left handed hitter facing a left handed pitcher at fenway? Wild stuff is possible.  

[weams]

 

[DrungoHazewood]

25 minutes ago, weams said:

 

1) How do you end up in indy ball if you can throw 102?

2) How is your career ERA in affiliated ball over 4.00 if you throw 102 and only walk three guys per nine?

[weams]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

1) How do you end up in indy ball if you can throw 102?

2) How is your career ERA in affiliated ball over 4.00 if you throw 102 and only walk three guys per nine?

Recent velocity increase. And. Dunno. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

1) How do you end up in indy ball if you can throw 102?

2) How is your career ERA in affiliated ball over 4.00 if you throw 102 and only walk three guys per nine?

1) It is straight as an arrow.

2) it is your only pitch.

That might do it.

[theobird]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

1) How do you end up in indy ball if you can throw 102?

2) How is your career ERA in affiliated ball over 4.00 if you throw 102 and only walk three guys per nine?

Because prior to having one O legally removed from his last name, he was Taylor Groover?