Teams are asking about Bundy

[Luke-OH]

16 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I think given Bundy's age, service time and former prospect status, I'd give him a few months to try and raise his stock a little bit.

At this point you'd be selling extremely low... what's the harm in waiting to see if he can regain some form before you trade him off?

Given Bundy's age, service time, and former prospect status, (plus the fact he had an unsustainably high home run rate and his K/BB numbers were similar to Clevinger, Foltynewicz, and Berrios) his stock probably isn't nearly as low as many here think it is. Teams don't use ERA to value pitchers, they project performance going forward based on a bunch of inputs including batted ball data, exit velocity allowed, pitch velocity, K rate, BB rate, spin rate, etc. 

I don't think anyone is suggesting giving him away, there would have to be a quality return. The harm in waiting is him getting hurt or losing more velocity. 

[Hank Scorpio]

Alrighty... hey I'm all for it if they can get a decent return based on potential & service time.

[El_Duderino]

27 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Given Bundy's age, service time, and former prospect status, (plus the fact he had an unsustainably high home run rate and his K/BB numbers were similar to Clevinger, Foltynewicz, and Berrios) his stock probably isn't nearly as low as many here think it is. Teams don't use ERA to value pitchers, they project performance going forward based on a bunch of inputs including batted ball data, exit velocity allowed, pitch velocity, K rate, BB rate, spin rate, etc. 

I don't think anyone is suggesting giving him away, there would have to be a quality return. The harm in waiting is him getting hurt or losing more velocity. 

I for one am not suggesting that his value is low, just that it could be higher than it is now given his skill set. If I were running the club I’d be willing to bet his peak trade value is still to come. 

 

Apologies if this were posted earlier but what do you think Bundy could fetch now?

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, weams said:

Money?

If his 3-4 M arbitration estimate is too much, let’s go ahead and move the team now. 

[Luke-OH]

34 minutes ago, El_Duderino said:

I for one am not suggesting that his value is low, just that it could be higher than it is now given his skill set. If I were running the club I’d be willing to bet his peak trade value is still to come. 

 

Apologies if this were posted earlier but what do you think Bundy could fetch now?

Let's compare him to Gausman. Gausman had 2.3ish years of control, age 27-29 seasons and will likely make around 22 million over those controllable years.

Bundy has 3 years of control, age 26-28 seasons, will likely make around 17ish million over those controllable years.

Gausman projects a little better by Steamer.  ZiPS and PECOTA aren't out yet (PECOTA will likely hate Bundy). 

Statcast's xwOBA (uses exit velocity, launch angle, etc to come up with an expected outcome wOBA allowed) actually had Bundy pitching better than Gausman in 2018 but getting quite unlucky. 

So let's say with the extra control, being a year younger, and going to make less money that he has equal surplus value to Gausman (a reasonable assumption, I wouldn't be surprised if some teams valued Bundy more highly).

So the Gausman return was JCE, Cumberland, Zimmerman, Phillips, international slots, and dumping O'Day's negative contract value. Using Fangraphs prospect valuations and FV grades (not that I agree with these grades for all these players, but since I'm using their valuation, I'll use their grades too) they are worth about 13.5M and dumping O'Day is worth about 9M (my estimate), and the slots are worth maybe .5M (the value isn't equal to the amount of the slot since it's just the right to spend that money). 

So in total, about 23M in surplus value. Again according to Fangraphs valuation, that would get you a prospect in the 70-90 overall in baseball range. Or 2 fringe top 100 players. 

 

. 

[weams]

16 minutes ago, waroriole said:

If his 3-4 M arbitration estimate is too much, let’s go ahead and move the team now. 

I think you have to take a look at what income is even possible on a team that will be losing close to 100 games for two more seasons. I really think that after that expansion of expenditure can occur. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, weams said:

I think you have to take a look at what income is even possible on a team that will be losing close to 100 games for two more seasons. I really think that after that expansion of expenditure can occur. 

Should be easy enough to ballpark what the loss in revenue would be.

Attendance last year was the lowest it had been in a non strike year since the 70's.  There isn't much reason to assume that it will go much lower.

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Should be easy enough to ballpark what the loss in revenue would be.

Attendance last year was the lowest it had been in a non strike year since the 70's.  There isn't much reason to assume that it will go much lower.

Oh, I assume they could lose 250,000 fans, because last year’s horrible performance will deter people from buying season ticket packages.    

The bigger issue, IMO, is that Elias will want to spend a good bit of money on things other than the major league payroll.    Payroll needs to come down to pay for these other things.    

[El_Duderino]

28 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Let's compare him to Gausman. Gausman had 2.3ish years of control, age 27-29 seasons and will likely make around 22 million over those controllable years.

Bundy has 3 years of control, age 26-28 seasons, will likely make around 17ish million over those controllable years.

Gausman projects a little better by Steamer.  ZiPS and PECOTA aren't out yet (PECOTA will likely hate Bundy). 

Statcast's xwOBA (uses exit velocity, launch angle, etc to come up with an expected outcome wOBA allowed) actually had Bundy pitching better than Gausman in 2018 but getting quite unlucky. 

So let's say with the extra control, being a year younger, and going to make less money that he has equal surplus value to Gausman (a reasonable assumption, I wouldn't be surprised if some teams valued Bundy more highly).

So the Gausman return was JCE, Cumberland, Zimmerman, Phillips, international slots, and dumping O'Day's negative contract value. Using Fangraphs prospect valuations and FV grades (not that I agree with these grades for all these players, but since I'm using their valuation, I'll use their grades too) they are worth about 13.5M and dumping O'Day is worth about 9M (my estimate), and the slots are worth maybe .5M (the value isn't equal to the amount of the slot since it's just the right to spend that money). 

So in total, about 23M in surplus value. Again according to Fangraphs valuation, that would get you a prospect in the 70-90 overall in baseball range. Or 2 fringe top 100 players. 

 

. 

For me that sort of return isn’t quite worth it. I think he has been a bit unlucky, especially this past year with the HRs. He flashes dominance at times. Sometimes for an entire month. I could see a scenario where he stays healthy, cuts down on the walks, and thusly strings together a handful of those months. I’d be waiting on an Chris Archer like return if I’m Elias. 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, El_Duderino said:

For me that sort of return isn’t quite worth it. I think he has been a bit unlucky, especially this past year with the HRs. He flashes dominance at times. Sometimes for an entire month. I could see a scenario where he stays healthy, cuts down on the walks, and thusly strings together a handful of those months. I’d be waiting on an Chris Archer like return if I’m Elias. 

That's fair, it's debatable whether to hold him or move him and I'd lean towards holding him as well. I just wanted to point out that moving him wouldn't be just dumping him, that he does have value despite a poor 2018. 

[El_Duderino]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That's fair, it's debatable whether to hold him or move him and I'd lean towards holding him as well. I just wanted to point out that moving him wouldn't be just dumping him, that he does have value despite a poor 2018. 

The more I think about it and read your post I can definitely see the sense in moving him now for the package you mentioned earlier. It’s probably the safe play. It’s easier to make these decisions/projections when you know what the organization’s timeline is. 

[foxfield]

38 minutes ago, weams said:

I think you have to take a look at what income is even possible on a team that will be losing close to 100 games for two more seasons. I really think that after that expansion of expenditure can occur. 

The team is going to lose 100+ games regardless of what Bundy does for the Orioles or what he brings back in a trade.  The payroll is already going to be significantly lower.  That should be expected and where possible it should be taken lower.  BUT, you seem to to be saying that the Orioles cannot afford  3 to 4 Million.  IF as you posit, the Orioles are broke and cannot afford $3-4 Million in arb the franchise should be sold, forcibly if necessary.  I have no reason to disagree that after a few seasons of spending beyond resources that pulling back makes sense.  But being unable to cover $3-4 Million 10 months after literally throwing $3-4 million away on multiple players like Tillman and Colby Rasmus, is a big crash.  Moving Guasman and getting more cash than value is and was a perfectly defensible move.  There is not going to be huge flow of income either way, but throwing away an asset is not really sound financial practice.

Dumping Bundy because of a 3 to 4 Million Arb # would be a poor use of resources.  There is a lot of work to do before the O's win and while payroll will necessarily fall, the necessary required investments in infrastructure demand access to funds in order to acquire talent.  If we have to throw away stuff to do that, then this ownership group probably needs a miracle to have success.  Again, I don't think that is the case here and I don't believe the Orioles would have hired the folks they have and I don't believe they would have taken this job if that were the case.

Frugalality is expected here.  You fairly consistently refer to the economic situation for the Orioles as almost dire.  Of course  if that is what you are saying, then clearly the absolute best thing the Orioles can do is convince Chris Davis to retire.  But that's another story....

 

[atomic]

4 hours ago, weams said:

It's not like they were good. And they were no longer cheap,

Gausman is a good pitcher.  He isnt an ace but he is a solid starter and puts up good numbers every year.

[atomic]

Also in what world is Bundy not cheap?  You cant get a starting pitcher of any value on free agent market for his salary.  Look what we are paying Cashner.

The Orioles need to put more than a bad AAA team out there.  Rebuilding doesn't require to be historically bad team. If that is what anyone is planning they shouldn't be in charge.

[rudyrooster]

If the O's can get a couple of decent prospects right now for Bundy, they should probably pull the trigger.  I am concerned of his injury history.