Response to Roch's Jan 1st blog on O's moves

[wildcard]

Roch shares a few ideas on moves he would like the O's to make.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/01/a-few-ideas-for-the-orioles-as-they-head-into-2019.html

Here are my comments:

1) I like Villar at 2B at least until July when he is traded

2) I like Martin Maldonado better than Caleb but Elias will go cheap.  I think the O's need to add a catcher.

3) Don't sign a FA starter.    The O's have  Cobb, Bundy, Cashner, Hess, Means, Rogers, Ramirez, ready to begin the season.   Cobb and Cashner could be traded at the deadline but by then Ortiz,  Tate. Ynoa Akin and/or Kremer may be ready for a chance in  the rotation.

4) I agree it is time to get someone working with Davis in Texas now.

5) Yacabonis is a reliever.   He had a 1.32 ERA as a reliever at AAA in 2017.  He had a 4.26 ERA as a starter at AAA in 2018 playing half his games in a pitchers park.    In March he will be 27.   He is a one to 4 inning reliever IMO.

6) Wright should be DFA'd to make room on the 40 make room this off season for a RF or  Catcher

7) Stewart in not a right fielder.  His best position is LF.  No way do I want Mancini and Stewart in the same outfield.  That limits the range too much.    Posters may say "Who Cares.  They aren't going to win anyway".   Look at #3 where I listed the starters then add these relievers - Givens, Fry, Bleier, Castro, Araujo, Yacabonis, Kline, Phillips, Carroll, Scott, Hart,  Gilmartin, Luis Gonzalez,  and/or Pop.   The O's are either trying to increase the value of these pitchers for trade or trying to develop them into major leaguers.  They need a decent defensive OF behind them.

For me Stewart stays a AAA until Trumbo is traded or Davis proves he can't hit and is moved to the bench.  The O's need to add a good defensive RFer until Hays is ready hopefully at mid season.   I would bring Yastrzemski to ST to see him in RF.   He has better range and arm in right field.   I am not saying he is the short term answer.  I would rather see a cheap right field free agent but failing that give Yaz a look.

8  Araujo should stay for 17 days.

9) I like Bobby Dickerson.  But Elias/Hyde have to be able to pick their own coaches and minor league managers.   I hope they give Bobby an interview to see where is might fit.  But its their call.   

 

 

 

[scOtt]

I agree with you on #3, unless you can get someone very cheap and late. Like as ST starts late. We aren't doing anything this year. Spend the money on scouts and infrastructure and Latin American facilities and all the like. Plus we really could use that #1 pick again next year.

[Can_of_corn]

Teams are not stupid.  They account for defense when evaluating pitchers.

[scOtt]

Roch is still thinking like the old regime. Sign a stopgap starter to pad the record, re-sign Caleb, etc.

[TonySoprano]

Quote

Sign a veteran starting pitcher to a one-year deal, perhaps with an option, and let the group of younger candidates vie for the fifth spot.

Quote

In a perfect arrangement, the veteran who’s signed would be flipped at the non-waiver deadline to create room and perhaps bring back a usable piece. 

What veteran rental would "bring back a usable piece?"  I think this proposed scenario is meant to deflect criticism of recommending a signing in the first place.

[ChuckS]

I like this snippet:

* Find someone who’s qualified to oversee player development and scouting. At least both departments always would be on the same page, unless the person hired has a split personality.

[ChuckS]

1 hour ago, scOtt said:

Roch is still thinking like the old regime. Sign a stopgap starter to pad the record, re-sign Caleb, etc.

He advocates signing a stop-gap starter while also advocating trading Andrew Cashner.  These ideas are in conflict with each other. 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

5) Yacabonis is a reliever.   He had a 1.32 ERA as a reliever at AAA in 2017.  He had a 4.26 ERA as a starter at AAA in 2018 playing half his games in a pitchers park.    In March he will be 27.   He is a one to 4 inning reliever IMO.

I heard an interesting take recently - Sam Miller from ESPN said in 50 years there will be no difference between starters and relievers.  In the next couple years, it'll be interesting to see how much of the season teams are able to cover with middle distance pitchers.  The Brewers did it to NLCS Game 7 last year.

We have a lot of room for experimentation while building the talent base.  I'm curious to see if Buck to Hyde means "skipping a generation" of pitching staff strategy.  I'd be curious to see what Yacabonis and Wright can do with planned 40-game, 100-innings strategies.  Or how much openers and avoiding the TTOP can do for the ERAs of even our main three starters.  That's the kind of stuff that'll be intriguing to follow even amid all the losing coming up.

[LookinUp]

The Os will need to embrace the concept of the opener. Every pitcher we have, save for maybe Cobb, fits that description better than a starter.

[sportsfan8703]

I think we can get by with Mancini in LF and Stewart in RF. If somehow we are winning after 5-6 innings you could swap them both out for Rickard and a 5th OF(Gentry type/Yaz). 

It seems like we have a group of guys that can go 2-4 IP. We should take advantage of that by having flexibility and using an opener. Hart for LH heavy lineups. Pick a RH with good splits for a RH opener. 

What worries me so far is that we haven’t acquired much “depth”. I don’t want to us to have to rush guys or start their service clocks early because of injuries. 

[foxfield]

Roch seems to be following the old days as the voice of Buck. For what it is worth, there are really no Orioles from last years team I would be overly eager to resign.  That said, I'm not opposed to anyone specifically either.  I just don't think it is important to bring anyone back when what you are trying to do is change a system.  

I do agree with Villar at second.  I wouldn't sign a pitcher unless it was a deal too good to pass up, I just don't see it happening. His comments on Yac are fair, and honestly he is right on Wright too.  Find a use for him or can him.  I also think the new team will have no problem making this assessment.

Davis...well, work with him, give him data, whatever.  The likelihood is that he has simply declined as is no longer capable.  The Orioles won't win in 19 or 20 so if Davis were to somehow bounce back, then his being in the lineup is easily justified.  The real challenge is what to do if Davis is simply what he has been the last two seasons.  It will be difficult for a new manager and GM to justify playing Davis if he isn't worthy.  The tightrope of giving him a chance to merely be replacement level and undermining a new regime is very likely to become an issue in 2019.  I hope it isn't, but I think it will.

I like Bobby Dickerson and would be thrilled if the O's retained him.  But it seems a little weird that Roch continues to lobby so hard for him.  A little...

It seems to me that Roch still is looking for his voice within the new organization.  Maybe he simply isn't getting much at all in the way of info.  Either way, I appreciate his efforts and I hope the new guys will eventually get him plugged in....

[wildbillhiccup]

I'd be fine with them signing any starting pitchers as long as it's only on a 1 year deal. Same with a SS. I completely understand that the team need to try walk the line between fielding a competitive team (i.e., selling tickets) and rebuilding, but I don't want them be handcuffed by any multi-year deals. To me that's the key. 

[Bradysburns]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think we can get by with Mancini in LF and Stewart in RF. If somehow we are winning after 5-6 innings you could swap them both out for Rickard and a 5th OF(Gentry type/Yaz). 

It seems like we have a group of guys that can go 2-4 IP. We should take advantage of that by having flexibility and using an opener. Hart for LH heavy lineups. Pick a RH with good splits for a RH opener. 

What worries me so far is that we haven’t acquired much “depth”. I don’t want to us to have to rush guys or start their service clocks early because of injuries. 

From what I gather, Stewart is a significantly better runner/fielder than he looks. He's a good base stealer, too, for example. Crazy. But he could be okay in the outfield for a season or so. However, I want elite out there. So I'm hoping he eventually finds his proper role, which is the modern-day, late-career Pete Incaviglia. 

[foxfield]

10 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

From what I gather, Stewart is a significantly better runner/fielder than he looks. He's a good base stealer, too, for example. Crazy. But he could be okay in the outfield for a season or so. However, I want elite out there. So I'm hoping he eventually finds his proper role, which is the modern-day, late-career Pete Incaviglia. 

We all do, but at least for awhile, Orioles and elite are going to be mutually exclusive.  Trust the process!!!!  We will have to watch some lumps of coal before we get to see any diamonds.

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

From what I gather, Stewart is a significantly better runner/fielder than he looks. He's a good base stealer, too, for example. Crazy. But he could be okay in the outfield for a season or so. However, I want elite out there. So I'm hoping he eventually finds his proper role, which is the modern-day, late-career Pete Incaviglia. 

Here are Stewart's grades from Orioles.com

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 40 | Field: 45 | Overall: 45

That shows a significant below average arm, average speed and below average fielding.   Not a right fielder IMO.  He is rated as the O's 23rd prospect for good reasons.