Hyde: "I won't manage to the save stat"

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm 100% sure we can find dozens, if not hundreds of posts from 2012 lambasting Buck for his bullpen use.  During the season where the pen was +12 wins in WPA.

The common complaint in the game threads was that he stuck with struggling starters too long.   Some people wanted to go to the bullpen the very first inning a pitcher started to struggle.

And of course if the starter gave up runs, they KNEW they were right.

Earl got that great performance out oft he bullpen by minimizing their innings as much as he could, and trying to eke that extra inning out of Chen or whoever.   And a significant # of people on the game threads hated it.   (Especially if their last name was Firestone or Pente   )

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, theocean said:

As soon as he put in Ubaldo, half the bar I was at proactively ordered a shot of something. A starter who always struggles in the first inning coming in to face Donaldson, Encarnacion, and Bautista - three of the nastiest hitters in the game at the time. What could go wrong?

Why keep on rehashing that game? Buck made a mistake. It's in the past. Let it go. I'm glad Buck is gone though. There is a new regime now. Look to the future. 

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I will consider myself defeated, but would love to know where you get the monthly ERAs for bullpens. I see them on bbref for individuals, but not aggregated by month.

I made them up!  

No, if you go on the team’s BB-ref page for a specific year, then navigate to the pitching splits page, you’ll see a tab for “Show Months — game level.”   Click on that and it gives you the monthly splits for the  staff as a whole and also breaks it down into starters and relievers.

Here’s the 2016 team splits page; you have to scroll down to find the monthly “game level” splits.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?team=BAL&t=p&year=2016

 

 

[theocean]

21 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Why keep on rehashing that game? Buck made a mistake. It's in the past. Let it go. I'm glad Buck is gone though. There is a new regime now. Look to the future. 

I thought the point of this board was to talk about stuff. There ain't nothin' new to talk about yet. I can only go through so many Luis Ortiz lost weight threads.

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, theocean said:

I thought the point of this board was to talk about stuff. There ain't nothin' new to talk about yet. I can only go through so many Luis Ortiz lost weight threads.

There is literally nothing to say about Buck’s decision in the Toronto game that hasn’t been rehashed 10,000 times.   I’d much rather hear about Jimmy Yacabonis’ hangnail than revisit ZachGate for the umpteenth time.   

And no, Yacabonis does not have a hangnail so far as I know.    

[baltfan]

There are fair criticisms of Buck. However, beside the Britton playoff game he did a fantastic job with his bullpen and not wearing guys out. 

[Morgan423]

5 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Using base/out/run matrices based on historical game data, and win probabilities.  So they figure out how many runs typically score in each inning/out/base situation, and how often you win in each inning/run differential situation.  From there you can give credit or blame to players or teams for deviations from that, and figure out which situations are most or least important.

Made up example... going to the ninth up three runs, nobody on, you win 97% of the time.  Then you just have to assign numbers to high/medium/low leverage, if you want.  97% is pretty low leverage.

To this effect, I found a tool online that uses historic data from 1957 - 2017 to calculate win probability and leverage, it's one of my favorites.  Just thought I'd share since it fits right in with what you are saying here.

https://gregstoll.dyndns.org/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.html#H.0.9.0.1