Will Manny earn his $300 mm contract?

[wildcard]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

 

 

If its orioles I am interested.   

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Well, good point I guess.  But this is Orioles talk and he is gone.    It will not impact the O's whether he earns his contract or not.

I thought about putting this in the MLB section.    Tony and Michael can move it there if they want, either now or later.    But there’s been a long-running thread here on Manny all winter, and the regular season is still a month away, so I figured I’d put it here.    

As to whether you should care, that’s entirely up to you.    I enjoy following a lot of ex-Orioles, Manny being one.   

[wildcard]

Just now, Frobby said:

I thought about putting this in the MLB section.    Tony and Michael can move it there if they want, either now or later.    But there’s been a long-running thread here on Manny all winter, and the regular season is still a month away, so I figured I’d put it here.    

As to whether you should care, that’s entirely up to you.    I enjoy following a lot of ex-Orioles, Manny being one.   

Yes, I probably should not have posted anything about this.   I just saw the post and expressed what I thought.   Probably shouldn't have.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

21 minutes ago, scOtt said:

Barring serious injury *knockswood*  I think he easily earns it. And esp, if he plays 3B like you said. His bat should rake, probably for almost all ten years. And he'll have a couple HUGE years thrown in, maybe even an MVP year.

Yeah, this isn’t paying a who knows his real age Albert Pujols or (gulp) Chris Davis a mega contract.

[thezeroes]

He will OPT OUT and void the deal at His earliest convenience.  Hence it will not be a $300 MM Deal.  Also Manny IS NOT an Oriole and this should be in the MLB Section.

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, Es4M11 said:

Do you want a club house full of guys setting poor examples for the younger guys coming up? Or how about a clubhouse full of guys landing cheap shots when the mood suits them?

If they're all Manny Machado caliber players then I don't care. That team would probably set the all-time win record and win the World Series

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

He will OPT OUT and void the deal at His earliest convenience.  Hence it will not be a $300 MM Deal.  Also Manny IS NOT an Oriole and this should be in the MLB Section.

Like I said, I’m fine with moving it.   But Tony said he was loosening the standards for a while, and there is a 14-page thread in this forum on “Harper reported to Phillies.”   I’d say any thread on Manny has more connection to the Orioles than that.   

[thezeroes]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Like I said, I’m fine with moving it.   But Tony said he was loosening the standards for a while, and there is a 14-page thread in this forum on “Harper reported to Phillies.”   I’d say any thread on Manny has more connection to the Orioles than that.   

That should have been moved also so then I would not have to "mark thread as read " on every visit.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, thezeroes said:

He will OPT OUT and void the deal at His earliest convenience.  Hence it will not be a $300 MM Deal.  Also Manny IS NOT an Oriole and this should be in the MLB Section.

 

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Like I said, I’m fine with moving it.   But Tony said he was loosening the standards for a while, and there is a 14-page thread in this forum on “Harper reported to Phillies.”   I’d say any thread on Manny has more connection to the Orioles than that.   

There’s a long precedent of letting high-interest topics start in Orioles Talk. 

[Bmorebirds24]

I voted no. I think he opts out at his 5 year mark. I think there’s gonna be an injury along the way. And if SD isn’t a contender I can see Manny being a headache. 

I don’t have WAR numbers to back my statement I’m just going off of how I feel About these “mega deals”. 

I also vote he’s not an Oriole anymore and couldn’t care less. I’m more concerned where Harper goes than what Manny does as a Padre. And if you’re wondering.... yes I’m being a bitter baby towards Manny. We were suppose to win a WS with him. 

[foxfield]

7 hours ago, Bmorebirds24 said:

I voted no. I think he opts out at his 5 year mark. I think there’s gonna be an injury along the way. And if SD isn’t a contender I can see Manny being a headache. 

I don’t have WAR numbers to back my statement I’m just going off of how I feel About these “mega deals”. 

I also vote he’s not an Oriole anymore and couldn’t care less. I’m more concerned where Harper goes than what Manny does as a Padre. And if you’re wondering.... yes I’m being a bitter baby towards Manny. We were suppose to win a WS with him. 

Opting out should be considered a yes, because it means he is getting a raise for his performance.  That said, the relevant WAR numbers are these:

His career WAR through his age-25 season is 33.8, higher than all but 25 players in history at that age. The only current players to have bested him at that point in their careers are Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Albert Pujols. And Machado's total is higher than Hall of Famers Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig, Willie Mays or Babe Ruth at the same point in their careers.

Could he be injured again, sure.  But there is also this, if we merely assume that for the next 10 years, $8 MM / WAR, then Machado only needs to provide 37.5 WAR over 10 years to be worth the deal.  Manny should have his best years ahead of him.  Hell, he could very conceivably produce 37.5 WAR and opt out after 5 yers, and have earned $300 MM even though he would only be paid half that.  

San Diego, in my opinion has made a great move.  A risk to be sure, but if they insure for injury then they are covered.  Manny Machado is not a poor investment.  And it kills me only a little less, that he will play for someone outside the AL and the AL East.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

About 75-80% of players with 25+ WAR through Manny's age have ended up with 37+ wins from age 26-35.  So on that somewhat conservative basis he has a good shot at earning his deal without considering inflation.  If inflation is 5% per year he only has to produce about 32 wins, so all the better.

My simple contract tool (which assumes he's peaking now and will decline at half a win a year, with 5% inflation) has him worth 10/295.  But at 25/26 there's a good chance he is at the start of a 5-6 year plateau where he won't really decline much, and may have better years.

If I assume that he stays in the five- to six-win range for the five years then declines on an accelerating basis to around zero in year 10 I have him worth 10/371 (again, with inflation).  If you throw in a random year, say 2022, that's zeroed out from injury I get a total value of 10/319.

I'm also not completely convinced of a 5% inflation rate.  It could be less.  It's possible a labor dispute or the cable bubble might temporarily result in deflation of salaries.  That would make earning the deal less likely.

All in all I'll say yes, he'll earn it.  Any contract like this carries significant risk but Manny's is probably one of the least risky megacontracts in baseball history.

[webbrick2010]

22 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I would love to have a clubhouse full of guys who bat .300/.350/.500 with Gold Glove defense

That would not be Manny

.282/.335/.487 and has not won a GG since 2015

 

[ChosenOne21]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

That would not be Manny

.282/.335/.487 and has not won a GG since 2015

 

Well if you want to be pedantic about it, I'd still love to have a clubhouse full of guys who slash .282/.335/.487 and play excellent defense but not quite good enough to win an award based on opinion instead of pure merit. They're still winning the World Series

[backwardsk]

6 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

That would not be Manny

.282/.335/.487 and has not won a GG since 2015

 

Do you think he'll never win a gold Glove again just like he won't get a $300M contract?

He really only had an opportunity to win one in 2017 because he played a quarter of his 2016 games out of position and didn't play 3B in 2018. 2017 was his career worst full season at 3.4 WAR.