Gio Gonzalez

[HowAboutThat]

50 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So you think the odds are good that we'll be able to flip/trade a player who no one seems interested in signing right now? 

 Don’t you? He’s a fine pitcher, he hasn’t been signed because his price is too high, not because he is bad, or even because he is declining, which I actually think he is a little bit. He’s not going to get what he wants, and if we offer a couple of bucks more than the next guy,  well, it’s certainly worth a try.

why do you think it’s not?

[wildbillhiccup]

24 minutes ago, Philip said:

 Don’t you? He’s a fine pitcher, he hasn’t been signed because his price is too high, not because he is bad, or even because he is declining, which I actually think he is a little bit. He’s not going to get what he wants, and if we offer a couple of bucks more than the next guy,  well, it’s certainly worth a try.

why do you think it’s not?

I don't.  I think he's an overrated pitcher who's seems to be trending in the direction of Jake Arrieta. When you have marginal strikeout numbers, like Keuchel does, there is very little margin for error. If you're talking about signing him on a one year I'd be fine with it, but I'm sure he's had similar offers from better teams. That means we'd have to offer him a multi-year deal and, to me, that's not worth the risk. This team needs to focus on shedding their bad contracts not acquiring more. 

[HowAboutThat]

Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

I don't.  I think he's an overrated pitcher who's seems to be trending in the direction of Jake Arrieta. When you have marginal strikeout numbers, like Keuchel does, there is very little margin for error. If you're talking about signing him on a one year I'd be fine with it, but I'm sure he's had similar offers from better teams. That means we'd have to offer him a multi-year deal and, to me, that's not worth the risk. This team needs to focus on shedding their bad contracts not acquiring more. 

Fair enough. I think for every asset, there’s a point at which he is a worthwhile signing, and my only point was that if we could sign Keuchel-or anyone- at or below that point, it’s worth pursuing.

[HowAboutThat]

20 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I don't.  I think he's an overrated pitcher who's seems to be trending in the direction of Jake Arrieta. When you have marginal strikeout numbers, like Keuchel does, there is very little margin for error. If you're talking about signing him on a one year I'd be fine with it, but I'm sure he's had similar offers from better teams. That means we'd have to offer him a multi-year deal and, to me, that's not worth the risk. This team needs to focus on shedding their bad contracts not acquiring more. 

I just did a bit of checking. Last year, despite a decline, Keuchel still had a good 53% GB rate( down from an outstanding 68%) his XFIP was 3.84, which is still good, and he had a .300 BABIP. I’m not cherry picking, those were just the stats i grabbed. He’s only 31, and has a couple more solid years ahead.

even if you cut his 2018 3.9 WAR in half, that’s still ~ 12M annual value. It might be worth pursuing.

[bobmc]

2 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

Gio signed a minor league deal with the Yankees.  I know that the Orioles will not be a contender this year but would it have killed them to sign someone like Gio to a minimal contract? Eat some innings, be a potential trade candidate, KNOCK MIKE WRIGHT OUT OF THE DISCUSSION FOR A ROTATION SPOT.

Tom Boswell on Gio:

 

[wildbillhiccup]

18 minutes ago, Philip said:

I just did a bit of checking. Last year, despite a decline, Keuchel still had a good 53% GB rate( down from an outstanding 68%) his XFIP was 3.84, which is still good, and he had a .300 BABIP. I’m not cherry picking, those were just the stats i grabbed. He’s only 31, and has a couple more solid years ahead.

even if you cut his 2018 3.9 WAR in half, that’s still ~ 12M annual value. It might be worth pursuing.

I don't disagree with you that he can probably be a serviceable pitchers for a few more years, I just don't think it's worth the risk of getting stuck with him if it takes a multi-year deal to sign him. If we're following the Astro's model the idea is for us to suck for a years. Like really suck. Then we restock our farm system with a few no. 1 picks and hopefully successfully develop our other young players. That seems to be the approach Elias is taking versus the partial rebuild / try to flirt with .500 for a few years method. I'm not condoning "tanking", but aside from the development/promotion of our younger players I don't think we should do anything to potentially compromise that approach. 

[wildbillhiccup]

8 minutes ago, bobmc said:

Tom Boswell on Gio:

 

The same type of person who thinks Gio Gonzalez is a good pitcher is the same type of person who thought Andrew Cashner was a good pitcher after the 2017 season. And at the risk of sounding like an ageist I'm not the least bit surprised this was written by a 71 year old sport's columnist who probably doesn't look beyond glaringly flawed pitching stats like ERA and wins. 

[Camden_yardbird]

2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So you think the odds are good that we'll be able to flip/trade a player who no one seems interested in signing right now? 

Competition changes things.  You are a baseball fan, you understand this dynamic.  Don't try and make it sound like it's the same situation.

If Keuchel is pitching to 3.50, even if he has no wins, there would be someone interested in the middle of the race.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

 Don’t you? He’s a fine pitcher, he hasn’t been signed because his price is too high, not because he is bad, or even because he is declining, which I actually think he is a little bit. He’s not going to get what he wants, and if we offer a couple of bucks more than the next guy,  well, it’s certainly worth a try.

why do you think it’s not?

Keuchel is a fine pitcher.  The issue is that this is his one chance at a relatively big contract.  He's 30, he'll probably never be in a better position.  He's never going to take a 3/30 deal from a 47-win team so that he can go 8-15 for the next three years.  And the Orioles will never offer that, because they have no interest in spending on wins 61 through 63.  He'll eventually sign with a (much) better team once a starter gets hurt.  Even if it's a 1/15 kind of deal on the hopes next year's market will be a little better.

[interloper]

24 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The same type of person who thinks Gio Gonzalez is a good pitcher is the same type of person who thought Andrew Cashner was a good pitcher after the 2017 season. And at the risk of sounding like an ageist I'm not the least bit surprised this was written by a 71 year old sport's columnist who probably doesn't look beyond glaringly flawed pitching stats like ERA and wins. 

I mean, they're not TERRIBLE pitchers. They have SOME value. We can't just blackball every player that hovers around 0-2 WAR or we'd have no one to play on our baseball teams. 

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, Camden_yardbird said:

Competition changes things.  You are a baseball fan, you understand this dynamic.  Don't try and make it sound like it's the same situation.

If Keuchel is pitching to 3.50, even if he has no wins, there would be someone interested in the middle of the race.

I'm not convinced that teams would be willing to trade for Keuchel if they have to commit to him three or four years. JA Happ is a good comp for Keuchel and he got a three year deal so that's probably the floor in terms of what it will take to land him. In terms of his tradability Jake Arrieta is a good comp and I don't think many teams would touch Arrieta with a 10 foot pole right now. Again, I really think there's a general tendency to overestimate how easy it is (or isn't) to trade/flip assets. It's not a given. 

[jrobb21613]

I don’t  know the cost of building infrastructure in Latin America and other areas where I understand ares is very poor, along with the cost of implementing all the latest and greatest technology all across are system but I’m thinking that maybe these other expenses that are before us now to update are whole system top to bottom are taken into consideration. Does 3 million for Gio or million here or there take away from us being able to build the infrastructure and moderate technology etc that I understand we desperately need?

 I’m thinking there are much better ways to invest 3 million dollars inside this organization that will have better long term value then signing Gio Gonzalez or others.

[wildbillhiccup]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

I mean, they're not TERRIBLE pitchers. They have SOME value. We can't just blackball every player that hovers around 0-2 WAR or we'd have no one to play on our baseball teams. 

Gio's is no better than Lance Lynn. Lynn had to settle for a one year deal last year. Are we really surprised that Gio couldn't land a better contract? Is it really the utter travesty the columnist is making it out to be? 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Gio's is no better than Lance Lynn. Lynn had to settle for a one year deal last year. Are we really surprised that Gio couldn't land a better contract? Is it really the utter travesty the columnist is making it out to be? 

No, and I didn't say that. I think it's pretty silly he didn't get a ML deal, like some other players this offseason. It's effectively a ML deal, he WILL pitch for the Yankees this year when he's ready. Why not just call it one? 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The same type of person who thinks Gio Gonzalez is a good pitcher is the same type of person who thought Andrew Cashner was a good pitcher after the 2017 season. And at the risk of sounding like an ageist I'm not the least bit surprised this was written by a 71 year old sport's columnist who probably doesn't look beyond glaringly flawed pitching stats like ERA and wins. 

This is so far off base it isn’t even funny.  Do you know anything about Tom Boswell?    The guy actually invented a sabermetric stat called Total Average back in 1984, before many of today’s stats had been invented.  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_average.     I assure you he is completely up to date on modern stats, and cites them all the time in his columns.    And FWIW, Gio Gonzalez at 27.5 rWAR, 111 ERA+, 3.69 FIP has been a far, far better pitcher than Andrew Cashner at 8.8 rWAR, 98 ERA+, 4.19 FIP.