Small sample sizes

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Yes, but what constitutes a small sample is extremely different for K rate and batting average.

Why? Unless the variance is much smaller for those stats, then I don’t see how sample size affects estimates of k rate and batting average differently. You also cited walk rate and a few wild pitches with two strikes would dramatically inflate someone’s walk rate in a small sample size.  

 

EDIT: I see your link now. Thanks.  

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

This is probably the most important article Fangraphs has put out IMO.

https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

Thanks for the link. That’s an awkward approach to the question. I think comparing variance estimates would be far better...its the correct statistical approach. Equivalent to a power estimate that you might calculate to estimate the number of replicates you need to statistically separate treatments in an experiment. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Is it too early to be concerned about Dylan Bundy?  His ERA is now 13.50 this spring. This wouldn’t bother me as much if he was coming off a good season.  

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Is it too early to be concerned about Dylan Bundy?  His ERA is now 13.50 this spring. This wouldn’t bother me as much if he was coming off a good season.  

Be concerned about the 89-91mph FB velocity, not the 13.50 ERA.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

Be concerned about the 89-91mph FB velocity, not the 13.50 ERA.

I wasn't watching the game, and that is very concerning. Bundy doesn't seem like the type to speak up when he feels hurt either.  Has that bulldog mentality for better or worse. 

[ChuckS]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

Be concerned about the 89-91mph FB velocity, not the 13.50 ERA.

If I recall correctly, his fastball was in the same range last Spring Training. 

Once the regular season started though I feel like he was back up to that 92-94 range and was dominant before falling back into that 89-91 range in May and getting lit up. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

If I recall correctly, his fastball was in the same range last Spring Training. 

Once the regular season started though I feel like he was back up to that 92-94 range and was dominant before falling back into that 89-91 range in May and getting lit up. 

Exactly right.    I posted this in another thread a few minutes ago.  

[ChuckS]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Exactly right.    I posted this in another thread a few minutes ago.  

There has been something not right with his arm ever since he came back from TJ and the calcification issues. He hasn't been able to maintain his velocity for months at a time at any point really that I can recall. 

It's anyone's guess whether he can creep that velocity back up a few ticks by April.  

 

[UpstateNYfan]

On 3/7/2019 at 8:50 PM, Frobby said:

Markakis wasn’t fast, but he was fluid.   I rarely saw him make a misstep.    

I do think Hays stumbled slightly before his dive, but it was still a very nice catch.   

I could be wrong, but I always thought Markakis had a below average first step. He was sure handed and wasn't prone to mistakes.