4,256...Altuve?

[Moose Milligan]

Watching Astros vs. Rays right now, they flashed a graphic when Altuve came up for an at bat...essentially, he's a little younger than Pete Rose at this point in his career with about 30 more hits than Rose had in the same amount of games played.  Can't remember the exact totals, but Altuve is ahead by a little bit.

He then promptly dropped a bunt for a hit.

The odds are that no one breaks this record.  I'd love it if Altuve somehow did it, he's a great player and a class act.  I know Rose moved from 3rd base to 1st base later in his career, Altuve won't have that luxury to move off 2nd.  Too short for first base.  2nd baseman don't age well so when Altuve starts to decline I'm not sure where he'd end up, probably a DH.  

But Rose played until he was 45.   He was remarkably durable, as durable as anyone could ask a player to be outside Cal Ripken.  And then got to write his name in the lineup card as a player/manager.  Altuve had a knee injury in 2018, the Astros broadcasters said he's healthy this year.

Still, it's cool that there's someone out there that has an outside shot at taking on that record.  

[Can_of_corn]

4,367

[SteveA]

14 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

4,367

4557

Total number of professional hits by Pete Rose if you include non Major league stats.

[Can_of_corn]

23 minutes ago, SteveA said:

4557

Total number of professional hits by Pete Rose if you include non Major league stats.

I was including stats from major leagues.

[SteveA]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I was including stats from major leagues.

If you can consider a league where Tuffy Rhodes can win MVP to be a major league.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

If you can consider a league where Tuffy Rhodes can win MVP to be a major league.

/shrug

The NL is a major league right?  A guy once won 60 games in a season pitching in the NL.

[Frobby]

Back to Altuve, I like his chances of getting to 3,000 but don’t see him as threatening 4,000.    Rose was a unicorn and used his position as manager to play himself more than any objective manager would have in his last few seasons.    

[atomic]

Altuve is 29 and has  1446 hits.  If he played 10 more years averaging 200 hits per season he would  only have 3446 hits.  Don't think it is possible to catch Pete.

[atomic]

Also Pete Rose had some terrible seasons after his 38 year season yet he kept playing.  These days he wouldn't be able to keep playing. 

[DrungoHazewood]

On 4/28/2019 at 10:27 PM, Frobby said:

Back to Altuve, I like his chances of getting to 3,000 but don’t see him as threatening 4,000.    Rose was a unicorn and used his position as manager to play himself more than any objective manager would have in his last few seasons.    

Using the Bill James Favorite Toy, and assuming that Altuve has 190 hits this year... it says he has a 1% chance at 4000 hits.

Another way to look at this is to see how many people had Altuve numbers of hits through his age.  If he gets that 190 this year that makes 1609 through his age-29 season.  30 players have had 1609 hits through age 29.  One of them (Cobb) eventually got to 4000 hits and at 29 he was almost 500 hits ahead of Altuve.  69 players had 1500 or more hits through 29, including Pete Rose who had 1532.  

Other players who had 1500+ hits through 29 include Alan Trammell, Mike Tiernan, Harvey Kuenn, Ruben Sierra, Ron Santo, Joe Kelley, Richie Ashburn, Freddie Lindstrom, Elvis Andrus, and Edgar Renteria.  Renteria was about 250 hits ahead of Rose at the same age.  There were actually seven players (okay, six plus Andrus) who had 1500 hits through 29 who didn't get to 2000.  Carl Crawford had more hits through 29 than Rose.