When do you make a call on Mullins this season?

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, weams said:

Why? The other folks you mentioned were actual prospects. 

If two Hall of Famers and a guy who'll end his career north of 2500 hits could start their careers very poorly, I wouldn't give up on a hopefully useful player after he's done something similar.

[Aglets]

13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If two Hall of Famers and a guy who'll end his career north of 2500 hits could start their careers very poorly, I wouldn't give up on a hopefully useful player after he's done something similar.

I think what weams is saying though is would you apply this logic to simply ANYONE who is promoted from AAA and starts off terribly?   Should they all get 500-700 PA before we make a decision?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict you say no.  So then how do you discriminate?

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Some time/number greater than 18 games into the season.  At least double that, if not quadruple.

In his first 18 games in the big leagues, Mullins slashed .317/.386/.556/.941 over 72 PAs.

Since then (September 1, 2018), Mullins has slashed .161/.251/.226/.477 in 177 PAs.

This is more than an 18 games slump at the beginning of the season. On top of it, his habit of pulling the ball has become an issue. 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

58 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Cal Ripken started his Major League career 12-for-99.

Nick Markakis was hitting .211 on Memorial Day of his rookie year.

Through his first 700 PAs Brooksie was OPSing .594.

I think I'd give Mullins a good long while before getting too worried.

You are better than those comparisons and know for a fact that different pedigrees get different amounts of time to show whether they can hit in the major leagues.

Besides, sending Mullins back to the minors does not equivalent to giving up on the guy. It means it gives him an opportunity to go back to AAA to work on some things, one of which is hitting to all fields once again. On top of it stats, you have every statcast metric besides speed telling you he's struggling badly:

Exit Velocity: 6th percentile
Hard Hit% : 5th percentile
xwOBA: 9th percentile
xBA: 3rd percentile
XSLG: 6th percentile

This is a guy who is over matched currently and keeping him in the lineup doesn't do him or anyone else any good. While this season is all about seeing who will be part of the future or who can be moved for those parts, it also stands to reason that sending a guy down who is being dominated can give him a fresh start and allow him to work on some things at a less pressure environment.
 

[weams]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You are better than those comparisons and know for a fact that different pedigrees get different amounts of time to show whether they can hit in the major leagues.

Besides, sending Mullins back to the minors does not equivalent to giving up on the guy. It means it gives him an opportunity to go back to AAA to work on some things, one of which is hitting to all fields once again. On top of it stats, you have every statcast metric besides speed telling you he's struggling badly:

Exit Velocity: 6th percentile
Hard Hit% : 5th percentile
xwOBA: 9th percentile
xBA: 3rd percentile
XSLG: 6th percentile

This is a guy who is over matched currently and keeping him in the lineup doesn't do him or anyone else any good. While this season is all about seeing who will be part of the future or who can be moved for those parts, it also stands to reason that sending a guy down who is being dominated can give him a fresh start and allow him to work on some things at a less pressure environment.
 

Yes.

[Brion McClanahan]

Mullins is great for the rebuild. Play him everyday and we are assured the #1 pick. The only problem I see is that we aren't playing Rickard right next to him all the time. Playing Smith and Mancini is just stupid. DFA Smith, trade Trey, and play Joey Nobats.

[El Gordo]

Call for Cedric Mullins!

 

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Cal Ripken started his Major League career 12-for-99.

Nick Markakis was hitting .211 on Memorial Day of his rookie year.

Through his first 700 PAs Brooksie was OPSing .594.

I think I'd give Mullins a good long while before getting too worried.

 

28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You are better than those comparisons and know for a fact that different pedigrees get different amounts of time to show whether they can hit in the major leagues.

Besides, sending Mullins back to the minors does not equivalent to giving up on the guy. It means it gives him an opportunity to go back to AAA to work on some things, one of which is hitting to all fields once again. On top of it stats, you have every statcast metric besides speed telling you he's struggling badly:

Exit Velocity: 6th percentile
Hard Hit% : 5th percentile
xwOBA: 9th percentile
xBA: 3rd percentile
XSLG: 6th percentile

This is a guy who is over matched currently and keeping him in the lineup doesn't do him or anyone else any good. While this season is all about seeing who will be part of the future or who can be moved for those parts, it also stands to reason that sending a guy down who is being dominated can give him a fresh start and allow him to work on some things at a less pressure environment.
 

If possible I am going to try and walk a tightrope and agree with both of you.  On one hand, Mullins is clearly struggling and the stats say he is overmatched.  On the other hand, he is a medium prospect deemed fully baked and the the new guys want to run him out there and see who he is.

I don't know when that date or time would be to make a change.  Mid April still feels very early.  On the other hand I agree that sending him down does not mean you are giving up on him.  To me the bigger question is what options you have.  The Orioles don't look to have one without pulling someone up.  If they are ready to do that, then I think they should and I believe they would.  If they don't think there is a good option available, I'm ok with giving him the Davis treatment and looking for spots that will work for him.

The real problem with that method is understanding the reality that we don't have enough talent to pick spots for struggling newcomers and struggling former stars.  So I am going to give a really long leash to them, while they keep guys like Wright, or Davis or Mullins.  In the meantime I will continue to hope that our low bar of talent is pushed if not by early summer, then by next spring.  If not by then, I will be concerned.

[interloper]

This is why I made the thread because there are a bunch of ways to read the Mullins situation right now. I agree with parts of everyone's points so far. Whatever decision is made should be an interesting way to learn more about how Elias will operate.

[weams]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

This is why I made the thread because there are a bunch of ways to read the Mullins situation right now. I agree with parts of everyone's points so far. Whatever decision is made should be an interesting way to learn more about how Elias will operate.

I don't believe Cedric is a switch hitter. I believe his arm is not MLB quality for a slap hitter.  I believe the past administration wanted Cedric to be the one replace Adam . But he's not. 

[Natty]

Can we offer to trade Mullins for Drew Jackson? 

[ChrisP]

I think @Tony-OH new favorite stat is EV. Maybe it's the buzz stat in MLB, but I can't read an article, twitter, watch MLB without hearing it.

[DrungoHazewood]

38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You are better than those comparisons and know for a fact that different pedigrees get different amounts of time to show whether they can hit in the major leagues.

Besides, sending Mullins back to the minors does not equivalent to giving up on the guy. It means it gives him an opportunity to go back to AAA to work on some things, one of which is hitting to all fields once again. On top of it stats, you have every statcast metric besides speed telling you he's struggling badly:

Exit Velocity: 6th percentile
Hard Hit% : 5th percentile
xwOBA: 9th percentile
xBA: 3rd percentile
XSLG: 6th percentile

This is a guy who is over matched currently and keeping him in the lineup doesn't do him or anyone else any good. While this season is all about seeing who will be part of the future or who can be moved for those parts, it also stands to reason that sending a guy down who is being dominated can give him a fresh start and allow him to work on some things at a less pressure environment.
 

I'm not saying Mullins is the caliber of those players.  But that kind of goes into my reasoning - he's not that good, so shouldn't we give him more rope, not less?  Because he's not as good, he's going to have some slumps and some adjustment periods.  He hit reasonably well in AAA and AA last year - I think you give him a good amount of time before sending him back to AAA and replace him with another decent-but-flawed prospect.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 minutes ago, foxfield said:

If possible I am going to try and walk a tightrope and agree with both of you.  On one hand, Mullins is clearly struggling and the stats say he is overmatched.  On the other hand, he is a medium prospect deemed fully baked and the the new guys want to run him out there and see who he is.

I don't know when that date or time would be to make a change.  Mid April still feels very early.  On the other hand I agree that sending him down does not mean you are giving up on him.  To me the bigger question is what options you have.  The Orioles don't look to have one without pulling someone up.  If they are ready to do that, then I think they should and I believe they would.  If they don't think there is a good option available, I'm ok with giving him the Davis treatment and looking for spots that will work for him.

The real problem with that method is understanding the reality that we don't have enough talent to pick spots for struggling newcomers and struggling former stars.  So I am going to give a really long leash to them, while they keep guys like Wright, or Davis or Mullins.  In the meantime I will continue to hope that our low bar of talent is pushed if not by early summer, then by next spring.  If not by then, I will be concerned.

That's really what I'm getting at - this is a season to evaluate players at the highest level and get a good, substantial sample of what they can do.  Let Mullins have 200 or 300 plate appearances.  If he hits .192 with a .500 OPS then maybe that's it, he's not the guy.  If ever there's a time to do that it's now.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, ChrisP said:

I think @Tony-OH new favorite stat is EV. Maybe it's the buzz stat in MLB, but I can't read an article, twitter, watch MLB without hearing it.

I love the statcast "stats" because it puts stats on things we used to have to tell with our eyes. Now we know how hard a guy is hitting a ball and where. We know when he's getting lucky or unlucky or whether we can expect some regression or improvement. I find it all rather fascinating.