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I think we are better than the Tigers

SteveA

By SteveA
in Orioles Talk

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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12 hours ago, atomic said:

What if we end up winning 47 games this year and end up getting the fourth pick next year.  With everyone tanking this is very possible.  

No team is playing worse than .315 ball. That's 51 wins.  You think it's reasonable that for the rest of the year four different teams are going to play sub-.250 ball?  You're hypothesizing that four teams are going play at a '62 Mets paceor worse for the rest of the year.  Okay.  One in a hundred years, then four in one year.  Why not?

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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13 hours ago, atomic said:

What if we end up winning 47 games this year and end up getting the fourth pick next year.  With everyone tanking this is very possible.  

If by saying “very possible” you mean “extremely unlikely,” then I agree.   Right now we have the worst record in baseball, and are on pace to win 51 games.   The Marlins are on pace to win 54, the Royals 56, the Tigers 60.    What makes you think it is very possible that three teams will win fewer than 47 games, when no team is on pace to win fewer than 51 now?

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Aglets Hangout Grand Counsel

Aglets

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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If by saying “very possible” you mean “extremely unlikely,” then I agree.   Right now we have the worst record in baseball, and are on pace to win 51 games.   The Marlins are on pace to win 54, the Royals 56, the Tigers 60.    What makes you think it is very possible that three teams will win fewer than 47 games, when no team is on pace to win fewer than 51 now?

It would conveniently fit his narrative.   

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ShaneDawg85 Hangout Veteran Council

ShaneDawg85

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Went to the game yesterday, and at some point the thought came to me the last game I can remember going to against the Tigers at Camden Yards was Game 1 of the 2014 ALDS.  That then led me to think of how the mighty have fallen, because both teams have been on a downward trend since then with the exception of their respective 2016 seasons.  Other than Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos, I was hard pressed to recognize most of the guys in their lineup.

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

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2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

No team is playing worse than .315 ball. That's 51 wins.  You think it's reasonable that for the rest of the year four different teams are going to play sub-.250 ball?  You're hypothesizing that four teams are going play at a '62 Mets paceor worse for the rest of the year.  Okay.  One in a hundred years, then four in one year.  Why not?

Teams are trying to lose this year. Even the 62 Mets were trying to win.  Look at MASN they are talking about trading Villar, Cashner and Mancini etc.  The other teams will trade away their remaining talent as well. 

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

If by saying “very possible” you mean “extremely unlikely,” then I agree.   Right now we have the worst record in baseball, and are on pace to win 51 games.   The Marlins are on pace to win 54, the Royals 56, the Tigers 60.    What makes you think it is very possible that three teams will win fewer than 47 games, when no team is on pace to win fewer than 51 now?

Use atomic+.  Adjust for context.  Just add 20% to whatever he "predicts" and you'll be closer to reality.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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49 minutes ago, atomic said:

Teams are trying to lose this year. Even the 62 Mets were trying to win.  Look at MASN they are talking about trading Villar, Cashner and Mancini etc.  The other teams will trade away their remaining talent as well. 

They're trying to win, just with poor players.  

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

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10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Use atomic+.  Adjust for context.  Just add 20% to whatever he "predicts" and you'll be closer to reality.

I am not sure what your point is.   If the Orioles manage 51 wins and get the 4th pick or they manage 47 wins and get the 4th pick it is the same result. They were tanking but so were a whole lot of other teams.  The Astro's strategy isn't going to work. 

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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1 hour ago, ShaneDawg85 said:

Went to the game yesterday, and at some point the thought came to me the last game I can remember going to against the Tigers at Camden Yards was Game 1 of the 2014 ALDS.  That then led me to think of how the mighty have fallen, because both teams have been on a downward trend since then with the exception of their respective 2016 seasons.  Other than Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos, I was hard pressed to recognize most of the guys in their lineup.

Did you know that if the 2014 Tigers had played their home games in OPACY, they would have hit 300+ HR on the season?  At least that's what the TBS broadcast team told me.

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ShaneDawg85 Hangout Veteran Council

ShaneDawg85

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24 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Did you know that if the 2014 Tigers had played their home games in OPACY, they would have hit 300+ HR on the season?  At least that's what the TBS broadcast team told me.

Yeah, and their  rotation of three consecutive Cy Young winners was an insurmountable force to any team. xD

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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37 minutes ago, atomic said:

I am not sure what your point is.   If the Orioles manage 51 wins and get the 4th pick or they manage 47 wins and get the 4th pick it is the same result. They were tanking but so were a whole lot of other teams.  The Astro's strategy isn't going to work. 

Zoltan_Fortune_Teller.jpg

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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40 minutes ago, atomic said:

Also look at the Tigers and Marlins pythagorean.  Both teams actual results are much better than it.  This should even out with a full season of games. 

Why would that matter?  At some point didn't you say the Orioles were going to win 37 games this year?  Surely the Tigers and Marlins won't be that terrible.  They don't have Mike Elias sabotaging the franchise.

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

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12 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Why would that matter?  At some point didn't you say the Orioles were going to win 37 games this year?  Surely the Tigers and Marlins won't be that terrible.  They don't have Mike Elias sabotaging the franchise.

Look at their rosters.  They have their own versions of Mike Elias I assume. 

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