Toby Welk

[glenn__davis]

Not sure if he'll end up being a guy or if this thread will be very short-lived, but I love the story of the D3 guy playing in the pros.  So far he's hitting .333 with a .410 OBP at Aberdeen.

[Spl51]

I am definitely rooting for him after I heard we drafted a D3 guy. Always cool to see potential for untapped talent in new areas.

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Not sure if he'll end up being a guy or if this thread will be very short-lived, but I love the story of the D3 guy playing in the pros.  So far he's hitting .333 with a .410 OBP at Aberdeen.

He has more of a pro body and prospectish look to him than I expected. Haven’t seen enough to be sure if he can stick at 3B and haven’t seen him really impact/lift the ball yet, but he’s interesting to follow.

[LTO's]

Any chance this is a diamond in the rough situation? Very small school, seemingly not on anybody's radar but the kid can play. Saw him in person the other day and he raked. Followed it up today by going 3-5 raising his OPS over .900.

[Greg Pappas]

7 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Any chance this is a diamond in the rough situation? Very small school, seemingly not on anybody's radar but the kid can play. Saw him in person the other day and he raked. Followed it up today by going 3-5 raising his OPS over .900.

Being a D3 guy, the odds are really against him, so it'd be a really great story for him to make The Show. He has skills and will be an interesting guy to watch progress through our system (I hope).

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, LTO's said:

Any chance this is a diamond in the rough situation? Very small school, seemingly not on anybody's radar but the kid can play. Saw him in person the other day and he raked. Followed it up today by going 3-5 raising his OPS over .900.

He was picked with the hope that he is a diamond in the rough. I’d say there’s a chance.

[csgordos]

Wade Miller came from a small school same town.   Rooting for the local Berks product!!

[linedrive]

I asked Sig Mejdal back on June 14 which player drafted after the tenth round he was most excited about, and, without hesitation, named Welk. He thought the analytics pointed to this guy, and figured other teams would have seen the same thing, but held back because he came from a smaller school. And so far Welk has lived up to that billing.

[Luke-OH]

32 minutes ago, linedrive said:

I asked Sig Mejdal back on June 14 which player drafted after the tenth round he was most excited about, and, without hesitation, named Welk. He thought the analytics pointed to this guy, and figured other teams would have seen the same thing, but held back because he came from a smaller school. And so far Welk has lived up to that billing.

Obviously this is inside team info, but I'd really like to know how they model and translate DIII stats, it just doesn't seem like there is sufficient data on those plays in affiliated ball to have much confidence there. 

[sportsfan8703]

6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Obviously this is inside team info, but I'd really like to know how they model and translate DIII stats, it just doesn't seem like there is sufficient data on those plays in affiliated ball to have much confidence there. 

Well let’s check his stats out from college,

https://psuberksathletics.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=2523

Could it be his near .500 BA the last two seasons, or that he only struck out 31 times in 4 years?   

He did make 15 errors in 39 games last year at 3B. 

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Well let’s check his stats out from college,

https://psuberksathletics.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=2523

Could it be his near .500 BA the last two seasons, or that he only struck out 31 times in 4 years?   

He did make 15 errors in 39 games last year at 3B. 

I've seen his stats, they are excellent, but what do they mean as far as predictive value? How many DIII players have played affiliated ball, that's the data set you'd use to try and come up with a projection. If there are only 20-30 hitters from DIII baseball since the move to BBCOR bats who have played pro ball (just a guess), that's insufficient data to have much confidence in the results of a purely stats-based projection. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

I've seen his stats, they are excellent, but what do they mean as far as predictive value? How many DIII players have played affiliated ball, that's the data set you'd use to try and come up with a projection. If there are only 20-30 hitters from DIII baseball since the move to BBCOR bats who have played pro ball (just a guess), that's insufficient data to have much confidence in the results of a purely stats-based projection. 

If that was the answer Sig gave then maybe the analytics model isn’t as complicated as we think. Or maybe the analytics guy just likes what he sees in Welk?  

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If that was the answer Sig gave then maybe the analytics model isn’t as complicated as we think. Or maybe the analytics guy just likes what he sees in Welk?  

Looking at a stat line and saying "wow, that looks good" isn't using data analytics. That's saying hey, he's doing good, hopefully he'll keep doing good. That's guessing. I imagine there is a model that Sig is using, I'm just curious about what kind of data he's using and how robust the data set is. It's a rhetorical question because that type of stuff is never going to be public. 

[JMU_Birdfan]

So obviously this guy has the hand eye coordination to dominate lower minors pitching. Looking at him, I definitely think he has room to add more muscle to his frame and possibly turn that Batting average into a legitimate stud hitting profile. 

[LookinUp]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Looking at a stat line and saying "wow, that looks good" isn't using data analytics. That's saying hey, he's doing good, hopefully he'll keep doing good. That's guessing. I imagine there is a model that Sig is using, I'm just curious about what kind of data he's using and how robust the data set is. It's a rhetorical question because that type of stuff is never going to be public. 

I'm wondering if they have a proxy for bat speed. Something akin to pop time for a catcher that measures load to contact, or something along those lines. It would be a way to measure a physical trait that is independent of your competition.