Who is next?

[JMU_Birdfan]

Is it possible that a contending team would give up one DSL lottery ticket player for Hanser Alberto? I know his OBP is almost identical to his AVG but if I was looking for a guy to come off the bench and get a timely hit, Hanser could do that well and be that Utility guy off the bench.

 

Would Elias trade Hanser for just one DSL lottery ticket?

[jerios55]

14 minutes ago, JMU_Birdfan said:

Is it possible that a contending team would give up one DSL lottery ticket player for Hanser Alberto? I know his OBP is almost identical to his AVG but if I was looking for a guy to come off the bench and get a timely hit, Hanser could do that well and be that Utility guy off the bench.

 

Would Elias trade Hanser for just one DSL lottery ticket?

If Cashner was worth 2, I think he'd jump at one for Hanser.  Always depend on how he sees the quality of that ticket.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Yeah, and if you take away two bad outings from Yacabonis he has a sub 2.00 ERA .

Givens is a known commodity. If one half season of individual stars mattered so much, we would’ve gotten more of a return for Cashner. The biggest reason why we might hold onto Givens is that that the market is flooded with teams selling. 

I am not saying that Givens is trash, just making the case for Villar. He has a track record too. Givens also had a 4 ERA last year. It's been a while since he has been lights out.

[jerios55]

13 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Okay ...So now you just look dumb! You can't possibly believe that and it just ruins intelligent posts about the topic. There is no way he's rated the 31st or higher 2B in MLB baseball. You do the work to argue your point if you'd like. Without looking I'd be willing to bet he'd be somewhere in the mid 20s.

 

 

12 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

That still doesn't mean there's a great market for him.  

 

12 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I didn't say he would be dealt. It's an ongoing debate between 3/4 guys and me. 

They think he's DFA fodder who should be dumped for spare parts or not tendered a contract come the off season.

The ridiculous comment about him be the 30+ worst ranked 2nd baseman in the league urged my response. 

I have no idea what to expect from a team looking to pick him up. I have no idea what Elias' asking price is except it's safe to assume he's looking for younger non 40 man talent based on the Cashner deal. Which is really all we have to go on.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-positional-power-rankings-second-base/

This pre-year had the O's ranked as 30th for 2B production.  Villar WAR is slightly better than best Blue Jay, but it's pretty close.  While there could be down seasons, injuries, etc. I think the expectations for/of Villar aren't that high. 

They show his WAR as 1.0 right now, so over the projection (how much specific to 2B IDK).  Again you'd have to look at all the 2B currently to see how this panned out, but a 20-30 range may not be that unfair.

edit: His WAR is lowered a good bit based on defense.  As mentioned some of that could be a factor of not being suited for SS, again IDK.  Things like fielding %, UZR are better at 2B, but that's about all I see for specifics.  So if he was full time 2B, his numbers would be a bit better.

[Roll Tide]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think Peterson is better than Wilkerson.    Sorry to lose him (sort of).     

Me too ... we have Wilkerson and Martin who is an automatic out. It’s time for the annual DL the rule 5 player move. 

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, JMU_Birdfan said:

Is it possible that a contending team would give up one DSL lottery ticket player for Hanser Alberto? I know his OBP is almost identical to his AVG but if I was looking for a guy to come off the bench and get a timely hit, Hanser could do that well and be that Utility guy off the bench.

 

Would Elias trade Hanser for just one DSL lottery ticket?

 

4 hours ago, jerios55 said:

If Cashner was worth 2, I think he'd jump at one for Hanser.  Always depend on how he sees the quality of that ticket.

Why would you trade Hanser for a 17-18 year old player. Let him develop ... learn to work some counts.

Hes young, cheap, and under control for years.

Not a move I would make for next to nothing!

[Aristotelian]

33 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

Why would you trade Hanser for a 17-18 year old player. Let him develop ... learn to work some counts.

Hes young, cheap, and under control for years.

Not a move I would make for next to nothing!

Good point. Way different type of player from Cashner from a contract standpoint.

[JMU_Birdfan]

54 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

Why would you trade Hanser for a 17-18 year old player. Let him develop ... learn to work some counts.

Hes young, cheap, and under control for years.

Not a move I would make for next to nothing!

In terms of our rebuild, he's not young. Hes' 26 and will turn 27 in October. He will not be on the next playoff team.

[DrungoHazewood]

5 hours ago, jerios55 said:

 

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-positional-power-rankings-second-base/

This pre-year had the O's ranked as 30th for 2B production.  Villar WAR is slightly better than best Blue Jay, but it's pretty close.  While there could be down seasons, injuries, etc. I think the expectations for/of Villar aren't that high. 

They show his WAR as 1.0 right now, so over the projection (how much specific to 2B IDK).  Again you'd have to look at all the 2B currently to see how this panned out, but a 20-30 range may not be that unfair.

edit: His WAR is lowered a good bit based on defense.  As mentioned some of that could be a factor of not being suited for SS, again IDK.  Things like fielding %, UZR are better at 2B, but that's about all I see for specifics.  So if he was full time 2B, his numbers would be a bit better.

That was a highly pessimistic ranking.  I remember a long discussion when that came out, about how they had Villar projected to 0.9 wins in just over half-time play, and a bunch of ABs to random guys to fill out the other 40% of the schedule.  Villar was worth almost three wins last year, and almost four in 2016.  He's already matched his Fangraphs full-season projection in 94 games this year.

A more realistic projection would be about 2.0 wins for Villar, and even having a kind of off year it looks like he'll get close to that.  The Reds were ranked 21st by that Fangraphs article and the projected to 2.0 wins out of the position.  The takeaway from the Fangraphs piece was that the bottom dozen teams in the league at 2B are mostly interchangeable.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

 

Why would you trade Hanser for a 17-18 year old player. Let him develop ... learn to work some counts.

Hes young, cheap, and under control for years.

Not a move I would make for next to nothing!

You trade Cashner for long-shot 17-year-olds because he's making $9.5M, and you replace him with an Eshelman making $555k.  Alberto is making $578k.  Whoever replaces him will make about the same thing.  Someone would have to offer a pretty decent prospect.

[interloper]

I don't think anyone is really going to give up anything but cash or a PTBNL for Hanser. He's a fun player but it's pretty easy to find a utility IF with just as much if not more value. Whatever team is trading for Hanser should just trade for Villar instead.

[LookinUp]

59 minutes ago, interloper said:

I don't think anyone is really going to give up anything but cash or a PTBNL for Hanser. 

Which, if true, means he won't be traded. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, JMU_Birdfan said:

In terms of our rebuild, he's not young. Hes' 26 and will turn 27 in October. He will not be on the next playoff team.

See ....It makes no sense to move Hansen unless you are overwhelmed. Let him play this season and possibly next. He will still be valuable for a few years due to being under control and cheap.

Despite Elias and his new approach, 17-18 year old prospects are still extreme long shots. Basically you get 10 and you are luck if you hit on 1. Giving away Hansen because he won't be on the next contending Os team is not a reason to sell now. You can deal him next year or the year after and most likely get more. If you deal him now for lottery tickets you are selling low.

and he is playing his year 26 season. In three years he's playing his 29 season and four years his age 30 season. So he could indeed be on the next contender. Not saying he will but he could.

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You trade Cashner for long-shot 17-year-olds because he's making $9.5M, and you replace him with an Eshelman making $555k.  Alberto is making $578k.  Whoever replaces him will make about the same thing.  Someone would have to offer a pretty decent prospect.

 

[SteveA]

7 hours ago, JMU_Birdfan said:

Is it possible that a contending team would give up one DSL lottery ticket player for Hanser Alberto? I know his OBP is almost identical to his AVG but if I was looking for a guy to come off the bench and get a timely hit, Hanser could do that well and be that Utility guy off the bench.

 

Would Elias trade Hanser for just one DSL lottery ticket?

What contending team out there has a need and thinks the answer to their need is Hanser Alberto?

[Luke-OH]

Hanser isn’t going to be more than the last guy on the bench on a competitive team, but he has value to the Orioles in that he’s a steady ( fringe average) bat, that plays multiple positions, is cheap, and is a good clubhouse guy. Perfect example of someone who is worth more to the O’s than a contender.