Pitcher Development - Keegan Akin

[wildcard]

I don't know why they would promote Akin to the O's.  He is obviously still a work in progress.  His 2nd half is worst than his 1st half.   Coming up and getting shelled would seem to serve no purpose.  JMO

[interloper]

I don't think he's up in September. For me he's added to the roster before the Rule 5 and maybe he arrives in 2020. 

[orioles22]

1 hour ago, TGO said:

Makes you wonder how the previous regime could let a one-pitch starter get all the way through AA.

He was the Eastern League pitcher of the year. Should he have been demoted? It's good the organization is working on improving his other pitches, but he earned a shot in AAA.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, orioles22 said:

He was the Eastern League pitcher of the year. Should he have been demoted? It's good the organization is working on improving his other pitches, but he earned a shot in AAA.

He has been at AAA all season.

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, orioles22 said:

He was the Eastern League pitcher of the year. Should he have been demoted? It's good the organization is working on improving his other pitches, but he earned a shot in AAA.

I think his point was that the previous regime should have had him working on his complete repertoire earlier than AAA.

[Luke-OH]

It's important to remember that he's been a clearly above average starter in AAA, his ERA in the International League this year is equivalent to a 3.34 in the Eastern League given the run scoring environment. 

Edit: Also, his peripherals are better this year despite the fact that the AAA run scoring environment should have a negative effect on at least the HR rate. 

 

[orioles22]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He has been at AAA all season.

Yes, my point was he earned a promotion after last season.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

It's important to remember that he's been a clearly above average starter in AAA, his ERA in the International League this year is equivalent to a 3.34 in the Eastern League given the run scoring environment. 

Edit: Also, his peripherals are better this year despite the fact that the AAA run scoring environment should have a negative effect on at least the HR rate. 

 

But AAA is using the same ball as the majors.  So bringing him to the majors we should expect worse performance than at AAA because major league hitters are better.   There is little point in promoting him until he improves more at AAA IMO.

[LookinUp]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't know why they would promote Akin to the O's.  He is obviously still a work in progress.  His 2nd half is worst than his 1st half.   Coming up and getting shelled would seem to serve no purpose.  JMO

Luke already sort of addressed your point...

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

If he's healthy (only saying that because his velocity has been down some of late), yeah. He has to be added to the 40 man this off-season anyways to protect him from the rule 5 draft. 

I doubt the O's promote him to the majors if they doubt his health. On talent alone, an even less effective Akin probably still has a place on expanded rosters in September.

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

But AAA is using the same ball as the majors.  So bringing him to the majors we should expect worse performance than at AAA because major league hitters are better.   There is little point in promoting him until he improves more at AAA IMO.

I saw a stat that this year 35-40% (don't hold me to this, I'm going off memory, but it's close) of AAA pitchers called up this year that threw 20+ innings in both AAA and the Majors, performed better in the majors. 

It's about getting him acclimated more than trying to bolster the team anyways, IMO.

But I bet if he had a 3.59 ERA in AAA last year and was fifth in the league in strikeouts, you'd want him called up. And accounting for league wide scoring environment, that's exactly what he's doing now. 

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I saw a stat that this year 35-40% (don't hold me to this, I'm going off memory, but it's close) of AAA pitchers called up this year that threw 20+ innings in both AAA and the Majors, performed better in the majors. 

It's about getting him acclimated more than trying to bolster the team anyways, IMO.

But I bet if he had a 3.59 ERA in AAA last year and was fifth in the league in strikeouts, you'd want him called up. And accounting for league wide scoring environment, that's exactly what he's doing now. 

Nothing we are say here is going to change whether Akin is promoted in Sept.   So I guess I will just say I hope not to see him in Baltimore until next season. 

[Tony-OH]

Let me make one thing clear though, Akin is already better than most of the guys in the Orioles bullpen right now, even as he's working on things. Saying that, the prudent thing for him to do is to continue to develop as a starter by using all his pitches. 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

It's important to remember that he's been a clearly above average starter in AAA, his ERA in the International League this year is equivalent to a 3.34 in the Eastern League given the run scoring environment. 

Edit: Also, his peripherals are better this year despite the fact that the AAA run scoring environment should have a negative effect on at least the HR rate. 

 

If you look at his overall numbers, yes he’s been slightly above average.   But if you look at trends, he was well above average for about two months and has been below average since then.    So, I don’t think he’s built a very strong case for a call-up unless the O’s just want to get a look at him against major league hitters.

Yesterday, I was a little surprised they pulled him after 4 innings/80 pitches.    He’s had an awful lot of short, high pitch count starts over the last 2+ months.    

[jabba72]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

If you look at his overall numbers, yes he’s been slightly above average.   But if you look at trends, he was well above average for about two months and has been below average since then.    So, I don’t think he’s built a very strong case for a call-up unless the O’s just want to get a look at him against major league hitters.

Yesterday, I was a little surprised they pulled him after 4 innings/80 pitches.    He’s had an awful lot of short, high pitch count starts over the last 2+ months.    

The coaches probably see the velocity drop and dont see the point in driving up his pitch counts.

[Frobby]

Holt on Akin: “Keegan did a great job taking some things into his work this year in terms of being able to throw his off-speed pitches more and get comfortable throwing all pitches to both bat sides. A high-strikeout-rate guy and also had an increase in walk rate. But honestly, with what I was asking him to do - throw off-speed pitches behind in the count to be able to attack the zone - he took on that work. It did cost him some walks, but really I don’t care. I want him to throw the pitches and get comfortable doing the things he’ll have to do on TV (in the majors).”

I asked Holt which Akin pitches improved at Norfolk?

“Definitely the changeup,” he said. “He threw changeups more this year than in the past and he also threw his slider to right-handed batters as well. In terms of improving the off-speed weapons and how and when he was going to use those, that was a nice piece of his work this year. He’s also improved his delivery consistency quite a bit. There is still some work to be done, but overall, the work he put together on the year was very, very solid.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/11/chris-holts-take-on-a-few-minor-league-pitchers.html