Austin Hays called up

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Still might be 100+ losses next season.

I wonder if the attendance is higher when Means pitches.  I'm guessing there is no bump.

I’d be surprised if there were.   He’s not a big name yet, and his method of success is not as exciting to fans’ imagination than a guy who strikes out a ton of hitters.   But if he were to be successful a couple years in a row, there might be a bump.    I know I’d rather see a game where the team has a decent chance of winning because the pitcher is competitive.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Interesting.   Where did he say that?   The stats bear him out, more or less.

I saw an interview where he said it.  I looked on MASN and didn't see it.  If I find it I will post it.

He said its part of getting used to the third deck.

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

In case anyone was curious about his rookie eligibility for next season,

 

 

Coming into the game tonight, Hays had 103 MLB st-bats. He managed to rack up 8 ABs tonight, so if he has more than 19 at-bats over the final 5 games, he will not be a rookie next season.

Note: this designation only matters for Rookie of the Year eligibility (and other rookie awards) and appearances on prospect lists, it doesn't have any service time implications.

Yeah, I think he's going to exhaust that eligibility in the last 5 games unless Elias shuts him down and sends him out to the AFL in order to keep him in the running next year. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I saw an interview where he said it.  I looked on MASN and didn't see it.  If I find it I will post it.

He said its part of getting used to the third deck.

Thanks.   It makes sense.   And one hopes that as he gains experience, the reaction time goes down a bit while the burst and routes continue to be strong.   

[Going Underground]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d be surprised if there were.   He’s not a big name yet, and his method of success is not as exciting to fans’ imagination than a guy who strikes out a ton of hitters.   But if he were to be successful a couple years in a row, there might be a bump.    I know I’d rather see a game where the team has a decent chance of winning because the pitcher is competitive.

I did a few games he started at home. No boost at all in the games I checked. 

Last game against the Mariners was 17,540 . Day before was 22,556. Game against Texas was 8,209 but that was the Thursday game of a 4 game weekend series.Tampa Bay was 11,409 on a Saturday, day before and after were 14,762 and 13,287. 11,659 against KC on a Monday. Day after was 11.826. 16,299 on a Wednesday against the Yankees. Prior two days was 20,151 and 17,201.

[Tony-OH]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Probably not.    Let’s enjoy this while it lasts, though.    

One thing is sure, Hays is faster than I’d realized, and fast enough for CF.    His sprint speed is 28.7 ft/sec, which is pretty much the median for a CF.    My sense is he’s still learning some of the nuances of the position.    He’s a little slow to recognize balls that are hit shallow and has a slow first step in that direction, but he’s aggressive and able to make up for it.    No reason he can’t stick in CF for several years.    

He's always had that and one of the reasons why scouts initially thought he profiled better at the corners. Now that we have his data under statcast, we see he can handle CF just fine, despite his slow reaction times.

Defensive Statcast #s:
Reaction: -1.3 feet
Burst: 0.4 feet
Route: 0.6 feet 
Feet vs average: -0.3 (putting him slightly below average but close enought to average) 
Expected catch%: 86
Actual catch %: 88 (+2)
Outs above average: 1

These numbers tell me that he's right around average defensively for a center fielder and there's no reason not to believe he can't get better as he gets used to major league stadiums and hitters.

 

 

[Going Underground]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He's always had that and one of the reasons why scouts initially thought he profiled better at the corners. Now that we have his data under statcast, we see he can handle CF just fine, despite his slow reaction times.

Defensive Statcast #s:
Reaction: -1.3 feet
Burst: 0.4 feet
Route: 0.6 feet 
Feet vs average: -0.3 (putting him slightly below average but close enought to average) 
Expected catch%: 86
Actual catch %: 88 (+2)
Outs above average: 1

These numbers tell me that he's right around average defensively for a center fielder and there's no reason not to believe he can't get better as he gets used to major league stadiums and hitters.

 

 

But will he hit better in the majors?  Last two years has not been great offensively in the minors. I know he has had injury issues. .235 average in 2017 and .248 this year. OBP in 2018 was .266 and this year was .304. His K rate was about 1 out of 4 times at bat at Norfolk this year. Do you think he was also walk more in the majors? 68 walks in 1324 AB's.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

But will he hit better in the majors?  Last two years has not been great offensively in the minors. I know he has had injury issues. .235 average in 2017 and .248 this year. OBP in 2018 was .266 and this year was .304. His K rate was about 1 out of 4 times at bat at Norfolk this year. Do you think he was also walk more in the majors? 68 walks in 1324 AB's.

Hays has had a pretty weird path the last 3 years.    It’s pretty clear to me that he can hit well enough to stick as a CF, so long as he’s playing decent defense.    Worst case, he’s probably a Jonathan Schoop level hitter who can play a decent CF.    Best case, he’s an Adam Jones type.    The guy has a good bit of zing in his bat.    It’s just a matter of how his plate discipline develops.    I’m not talking about walks so much, as the ability to lay off the pitches he really can’t hit.   

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hays has had a pretty weird path the last 3 years.    It’s pretty clear to me that he can hit well enough to stick as a CF, so long as he’s playing decent defense.    Worst case, he’s probably a Jonathan Schoop level hitter who can play a decent CF.    Best case, he’s an Adam Jones type.    The guy has a good bit of zing in his bat.    It’s just a matter of how his plate discipline develops.    I’m not talking about walks so much, as the ability to lay off the pitches he really can’t hit.   

He struck out four times last eve I think. 

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

He struck out four times last eve I think. 

Sounds like Jones and Schoop to me.

[HowAboutThat]

These last few comments have been mildly disappointing. I thought we had a Pillar that could hit, or a Cain who is young. Now it seems at best we have Adam Jones, an average glove and good bat but a lot OBP because he never walks. I loved AJ-and still do- but I was hoping Hays would be a different level.

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

But will he hit better in the majors?  Last two years has not been great offensively in the minors. I know he has had injury issues. .235 average in 2017 and .248 this year. OBP in 2018 was .266 and this year was .304. His K rate was about 1 out of 4 times at bat at Norfolk this year. Do you think he was also walk more in the majors? 68 walks in 1324 AB's.

I think he's a much better hitter when he's healthy, settled, and feeling good. He's having pretty good PAs right now at the big league level. He's crushing fastballs so I imagine he'll start to see an adjustment by pitchers to throw more offspeed pitches  in the future. That will be where we'll know whether he can make that adjustment at the big league level because that's what his struggles were on in the minors. 

Remember, this guy was a consensus top 100 prospect at one time and has a lot of talent. Most of his struggles were when he was trying to come back from time off due to freak injuries.

[weams]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

These last few comments have been mildly disappointing. I thought we had a Pillar that could hit, or a Cain who is young. Now it seems at best we have Adam Jones, an average glove and good bat but a lot OBP because he never walks. I loved AJ-and still do- but I was hoping Hays would be a different level.

Adam Jones was great. Schoop was good. Hays may never be either of them. Stay healthy, he'll do ok. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

These last few comments have been mildly disappointing. I thought we had a Pillar that could hit, or a Cain who is young. Now it seems at best we have Adam Jones, an average glove and good bat but a lot OBP because he never walks. I loved AJ-and still do- but I was hoping Hays would be a different level.

Have you looked at his minor league stats?  Have you read the scouting reports?

Also, having a Jones type career is nothing to be disappointed about.

[HowAboutThat]

Just now, weams said:

Adam Jones was great. Schoop was good. Hays may never be either of them. Stay healthy, he'll do ok. 

I think he’ll be ok, but I was hoping he’d be just a couple steps below The Second Coming.