What Tango says WAR is

[weams]

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/what_war_is_what_war_is_not/

Quote

3a. There is some level of agreement as to how to measure the fielding performance.  The high level of agreement is focused on counting the number of plays a fielder actually makes.  Then there is some level of disagreement as to how to measure the number of opportunities the fielder had to make a play.

3b. There is a strong level of agreement as to how to establish the positional value.  It basically follows the Bill James fielding spectrum (DH, 1B, LF/RF, 2B/3B/CF, SS, C).  Because there are few players who are capable of playing SS or C, and there are tons of players who can play 1B or in the corner OF, there is more value in shortstops and catchers.  How much of a gap between 1B and SS/C has some level of agreement.  The DH has its own special limitations, in addition to the question of positional scarcity.

4. There is a high level of agreement as to how much value to give a player for being able to play.

 

[sportsfan8703]

Wait... this isn’t a thread about “Boy meets world”?  

[weams]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Wait... this isn’t a thread about “Boy meets world”?  

Nope. Though an aged take, a bit from the expert to support Drungo and Frobby when they say "But this is what we have for now."

[TommyPickles]

I like the WAR stat and its one of the first things I look at.  That said, I do think it somewhat overrates defense. 

I think about someone like Craig Gentry.  In 2018 he only had 169 PA. He put up a .668 OPS/85 OPS+.  He hit just 1 HR and recorded just 11 RBIs. 

Defensively he played in 62 games, 30 of which he started.  He recorded 2 assists and committed 2 errors.  His DRS was 7.

His WAR was 1.1.

Versus someone like Adam Jones. Jones played in 145 games that year.  He had 613 PA.  He put up a .732 OPS/101 OPS+.  He hit 15 homers and 63 RBIs.  

Defensively he played in 139 games, 138 of which he started.  He recorded 5 assists and committed 2 errors. His DRS was bad, -25.  

His WAR was 0.2. 

I get that Gentry was a better defender, but was he really worth more than five times what Jones was that year? What would Gentry's stats have looked like if he had played 145 games?  What would Jones' have been if he's just played RF/LF (where the stats looked a lot better)? Seems off to me.

[weams]

6 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I like the WAR stat and its one of the first things I look at.  That said, I do think it somewhat overrates defense. 

I think about someone like Craig Gentry.  In 2018 he only had 169 PA. He put up a .668 OPS/85 OPS+.  He hit just 1 HR and recorded just 11 RBIs. 

Defensively he played in 62 games, 30 of which he started.  He recorded 2 assists and committed 2 errors.  His DRS was 7.

His WAR was 1.1.

Versus someone like Adam Jones. Jones played in 145 games that year.  He had 613 PA.  He put up a .732 OPS/101 OPS+.  He hit 15 homers and 63 RBIs.  

Defensively he played in 139 games, 138 of which he started.  He recorded 5 assists and committed 2 errors. His DRS was bad, -25.  

His WAR was 0.2. 

I get that Gentry was a better defender, but was he really worth more than five times what Jones was that year? What would Gentry's stats have looked like if he had played 145 games?  What would Jones' have been if he's just played RF/LF (where the stats looked a lot better)? Seems off to me.

The defensive components are so deeply flawed. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I like the WAR stat and its one of the first things I look at.  That said, I do think it somewhat overrates defense. 

I think about someone like Craig Gentry.  In 2018 he only had 169 PA. He put up a .668 OPS/85 OPS+.  He hit just 1 HR and recorded just 11 RBIs. 

Defensively he played in 62 games, 30 of which he started.  He recorded 2 assists and committed 2 errors.  His DRS was 7.

His WAR was 1.1.

Versus someone like Adam Jones. Jones played in 145 games that year.  He had 613 PA.  He put up a .732 OPS/101 OPS+.  He hit 15 homers and 63 RBIs.  

Defensively he played in 139 games, 138 of which he started.  He recorded 5 assists and committed 2 errors. His DRS was bad, -25.  

His WAR was 0.2. 

I get that Gentry was a better defender, but was he really worth more than five times what Jones was that year? What would Gentry's stats have looked like if he had played 145 games?  What would Jones' have been if he's just played RF/LF (where the stats looked a lot better)? Seems off to me.

If I remember correctly a win is the equivalent of 9-10 runs.   If you believe in the DRS numbers that's over 3 wins on defense.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

The defensive components are so deeply flawed. 

Much like Adam Jones' defense in Center.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, TommyPickles said:

I like the WAR stat and its one of the first things I look at.  That said, I do think it somewhat overrates defense. 

I think about someone like Craig Gentry.  In 2018 he only had 169 PA. He put up a .668 OPS/85 OPS+.  He hit just 1 HR and recorded just 11 RBIs. 

Defensively he played in 62 games, 30 of which he started.  He recorded 2 assists and committed 2 errors.  His DRS was 7.

His WAR was 1.1.

Versus someone like Adam Jones. Jones played in 145 games that year.  He had 613 PA.  He put up a .732 OPS/101 OPS+.  He hit 15 homers and 63 RBIs.  

Defensively he played in 139 games, 138 of which he started.  He recorded 5 assists and committed 2 errors. His DRS was bad, -25.  

His WAR was 0.2. 

I get that Gentry was a better defender, but was he really worth more than five times what Jones was that year? What would Gentry's stats have looked like if he had played 145 games?  What would Jones' have been if he's just played RF/LF (where the stats looked a lot better)? Seems off to me.

I think it’s very easy to measure the value of an extra defensive play made vs. an extra hit, and weighting those things appropriately.    The hard part, as Tango essentially said in the quote in the OP, is determining how many opportunities the fielder actually had.     

[weams]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s very easy to measure the value of an extra defensive play made vs. an extra hit, and weighting those things appropriately.    The hard part, as Tango essentially said in the quote in the OP, is determining how many opportunities the fielder actually had.     

I like that he is open to change, but looks for alternatives, not just criticism. 

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, weams said:

I like that he is open to change, but looks for alternatives, not just criticism. 

Yeah, you do the best with what you have, always aware of the flaws/uncertainties and work towards a better quantification of player value. 

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, weams said:

I like that he is open to change, but looks for alternatives, not just criticism. 

WAR is just a framework.  And an open source one at that.  As better metrics evolve you just plug those in.  Right now there's nothing stopping anyone from using Statcast data for outfielder defense in WAR. 

Someone may not like how bb-ref or Fangraphs implements some part of WAR.  That's fine.  They should come up with their own value and use that instead.  But they should be prepared to defend it, because like I said, this is all open source.