Calling Elias incompetent is unfair

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Just because he didnt like the return that doesn't mean it was "virtually nothing". He's traded a deal or deals that he didn't like for zero!

We don’t know yet.   Apparently the move of putting Villar on waivers may have been intended to force teams to pony up their trade offers before Villar becomes a free agent next week.    So, we need to see if that’s successful.    But we certainly know he’s prepared to walk away from the player rather than pay him in arbitration.  

[wildbillhiccup]

Calling Elias anything is unfair. You don't judge a movie after the first five minutes. That's about where we are with the rebuild. It's time to buckle up folks. 

[NCRaven]

2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Calling Elias anything is unfair. You don't judge a movie after the first five minutes. That's about where we are with the rebuild. It's time to buckle up folks. 

This move probably means nothing in the long run, but I think it sucks in the short run.  Even great movies have scenes that could have been better.

[Tony-OH]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Are a lot of people calling Elias incompetent?    Criticizing the Villar move and calling the GM incompetent are two different things.   

Agreed. I've only seen one person saying that. Even if he loses Villar for nothing I would not call him incompetent, but rather say I'd disagree with his decision.

[Tony-OH]

7 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

YEP

And your defending him here

Name one worth while personnel move that he's made in over a year. Can you?

I don't think he's earned the benefit of the doubt.

This is a horrible move!

Easy there fella. If he gets nothing for Villar, I won't like this move, but Elias has done many things to rebuild this organization from the ground up. This has never been about the major league product for now, but I think you are allowing your emotions to blind yourself from all of the new systems and information he's put into the minors. While I agree the jury is still out on Elias overall (it would be for any GM one year into his reign), this would be his first black mark if he ends up giving Villar away, and even then, it really won't effect the time frame to get back to being a winner.

 

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Easy there fella. If he gets nothing for Villar, I won't like this move, but Elias has done many things to rebuild this organization from the ground up. This has never been about the major league product for now, but I think you are allowing your emotions to blind yourself from all of the new systems and information he's put into the minors. While I agree the jury is still out on Elias overall (it would be for any GM one year into his reign), this would be his first black mark if he ends up giving Villar away, and even then, it really won't effect the time frame to get back to being a winner.

 

Well you might be right Tony! Both the other things that he's done doesnt matter until they start paying dividends. We don't know whether any of that stuff will ever work.

I have not been impressed with the roster management up to this point. He got little done last off season, nothing at the deadline except some 18 year old Dominican lottery tickets for Cashner, and then this.

I will say this over again, if he wasn't prepared to tender Villar then you take what you can get at the deadline. I won't believe he didn't know the budget restraints imposed (if there are any) or that he didn't know whether he was not prepared to tender Villar.

In my mind you have 4 options

1)Trade Villar at the deadline

2) Extend him last season

3) Tender and trade him

or

4) Tender him and trade him at this coming deadline

 

He's too good to give away and there is no excuse except incompetence, poor planning, or something like that!

 

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Well you might be right Tony! Both the other things that he's done doesnt matter until they start paying dividends. We don't know whether any of that stuff will ever work.

I have not been impressed with the roster management up to this point. He got little done last off season, nothing at the deadline except some 18 year old Dominican lottery tickets for Cashner, and then this.

I will say this over again, if he wasn't prepared to tender Villar then you take what you can get at the deadline. I won't believe he didn't know the budget restraints imposed (if there are any) or that he didn't know whether he was not prepared to tender Villar.

In my mind you have 4 options

1)Trade Villar at the deadline

2) Extend him last season

3) Tender and trade him

or

4) Tender him and trade him at this coming deadline

 

He's too good to give away and there is no excuse except incompetence, poor planning, or something like that!

 

Your thinking is not very clear.   At the deadline Villar had a 747 OPS, was error prone and didn't entice anyone in the league to pay up.   If he ended the season that way he would not been worth much more than 5M in his final year before FA.   Elias could decide to tender him  and then trade him or not.

But Villar did the unexpected.  He had a 843 OPS in the 2nd half raising he arbitration value  so high Elias couldn't tender him and now has until tomorrow to trade him.    Elias may be good but he is not psychic.   

[theocean]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Easy there fella. If he gets nothing for Villar, I won't like this move, but Elias has done many things to rebuild this organization from the ground up. This has never been about the major league product for now, but I think you are allowing your emotions to blind yourself from all of the new systems and information he's put into the minors. While I agree the jury is still out on Elias overall (it would be for any GM one year into his reign), this would be his first black mark if he ends up giving Villar away, and even then, it really won't effect the time frame to get back to being a winner.

 

This is a good point - whatever happens with Villar probably isn't going to have any impact long-term. I don't think anybody expects Villar to bring back some mega-prospect or for the Orioles to extend him. So, it's not like this is going to push back the rebuild a year or something.

The controversy surrounding this issue has more to do with opinions on tanking, the health of professional baseball as a sport, and whether fans really want to engage with a really long rebuild. Which stirs up emotions and really goes beyond inside-the-lines baseball stuff. It's been really interesting to hear everyone's takes; I think they're all valid. Ultimately, it's up to the Baltimore Orioles to be able to feel the pulse of the fanbase and whether they think they can come out the other side of a scorched-earth rebuild in better shape than they were before.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Your thinking is not very clear.   At the deadline Villar had a 747 OPS, was error prone and didn't entice anyone in the league to pay up. (1)  If he ended the season that way he would not been worth much more than 5M in his final year before FA.   Elias could decide to tender him  and then trade him or not.

But Villar did the unexpected.  He had a 843 OPS in the 2nd half raising he arbitration value (2)  so high Elias couldn't tender him and now has until tomorrow to trade him.    Elias may be good but he is not psychic.   

1)This is just not true ... People here were speculating his arb # at $7+ million! it was never going to be $5 million .

2) Do you actually believe this crap? I mean Jesus! The payroll was almost $100 million less than the 2018, and it will likely be less in 2020. Poor Elias and the poor Orioles can't afford to pay Villar a $3 million dollar raise! Give me a flippin break!

You can't possibly believe this?

 

 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

1)This is just not true ... People here were speculating his arb # at $7+ million! it was never going to be $5 million .

2) Do you actually believe this crap? I mean Jesus! The payroll was almost $100 million less than the 2018, and it will likely be less in 2020. Poor Elias and the poor Orioles can't afford to pay Villar a $3 million dollar raise! Give me a flippin break!

You can't possibly believe this?

You’re absolutely right about point 1.    Villar made $4.825 mm last year.    You can pretty much bank that he would have gotten a 50% raise just based on having an average year.   

As to point 2, you’re right that the O’s could have afforded to keep Villar.    Whether it would have been a wise expenditure is a separate question.    I mean, I could afford to drive a Mercedes, but I choose to drive a Honda and keep my money to spend on other things, now or later.    
 

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You’re absolutely right about point 1.    Villar made $4.825 mm last year.    You can pretty much bank that he would have gotten a 50% raise just based on having an average year.   

As to point 2, you’re right that the O’s could have afforded to keep Villar.    Whether it would have been a wise expenditure is a separate question.    I mean, I could afford to drive a Mercedes, but I choose to drive a Honda and keep my money to spend on other things, now or later.    
 

We agree except on the last part. You can almost count on the money saved disappearing in an Angelos' family members sock drawer never to be seen again.

Also If Villar is a Mercedes ....His rule 5, 20 year old sub .500 OPS replacement would be comparable to you driving a Fiat

 

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

We agree except on the last part. You can almost count on the money saved disappearing in an Angelos' family members sock drawer never to be seen again.

Also If Villar is a Mercedes ....His rule 5, 20 year old sub .500 OPS replacement would be comparable to you driving a Fiat

 

We don't know what the Brothers will do but the Angelos family has spent when they had a team worth spending on.   According to Cots Contracts the ending payroll in 2017 was almost 180m.    Right now I have no reason to think that would not happen again when the O's are contenders.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

We don't know what the Brothers will do but the Angelos family has spent when they had a team worth spending on.   According to Cots Contracts the ending payroll in 2017 was almost 180m.    Right now I have no reason to think that would not happen again when the O's are contenders.

That's not my point....my point is they don't sock away money to be used later. Our payroll was 80-100 million light in 2019. You will never see that money spent later. They may spend but they won't overspend by the money they are saving. 

 

[wildbillhiccup]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

That's not my point....my point is they don't sock away money to be used later. Our payroll was 80-100 million light in 2019. You will never see that money spent later. They may spend but they won't overspend by the money they are saving. 

 

I'm not sure why this move is such a surprise to you. This is the modal that Elias used in Houston. You burn it to the ground then rebuild with a strong foundation. The idea is build the team for sustained success. Whether or not we have Villar on the team next season isn't going to matter and it's not going to move the win/loss needed. He a complementary player, not a difference maker. Right now I'm operating under the assumption that the money saved by releasing Villar will be reinvested into other facets of the organization. The Orioles, even under Angelos, Sr., never had a problem spending; they had a problem spending the "right" way. Now if all this turns out to be a mandate to strip payroll before they move the team to Nashville then I'll be the first to say I was wrong. 

 

[atomic]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

If you are talking about major league personnel moves, there’s not much to write home about.   Acquiring Hanser Alberto off waivers probably tops the list.    

But that’s not really what I’m expecting of Elias at this point, or how I’m judging him.   Unlike you, I do think he made very solid progress on the international front, but Rome wasn’t built in a day.    I like what he’s been doing in drafting and development.    Bottom line, I intend to be patient.   
 

They still haven’t even announced breaking ground on a modern Dominican facility.  I don’t think he has done anything other than fire a bunch of scouts.  Anyone would have drafted Adley.  If you are judging on him what he has done he is a failure.