Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

And the result is loss in attendance.

I know a handful of wins really doesn’t matter much. But Villar still made watching a lot more fun. His replacement which I fully expect to be a rule 5 guy that has to look up to see the Mendoza line or scrap heap middle infielder with similar issues that they can get near the minimum won’t.

Villar did make it more fun.  But I'm willing to bet that the amount of people that purchased a ticket because they absolutely HAD to see Villar play in person couldn't fill an elevator.  

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I remember years ago when the Orioles were in last place, were looking at the #1 draft pick next year and swept the Yankees on the final weekend to screw themselves out of the #1 pick.  I could have sworn it was one of the Strasburg/Harper drafts that we'd have had the #1, but someone said a few months ago it was actually the Teixeira draft.  I can't remember, it's all a jumbled mess of Orioles suck in my brain.

It’s all a bit of a fairy tale.   In 2000, we were 71-88 and swept the Yankees to finish 74-88.    The Rangers finished 71-91, drafted 5th and took Teixeira.    We drafted 7th and took Chris Smith.   The only way we would have beaten out Texas was if we’d lost all three games that series.   (Texas did lose their final three, and 8 of their final 9, to “earn” their draft spot.)

There never was a year where the O’s went into the final weekend contending for the no. 1 pick, and “blew” it.

[Tony-OH]

31 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

How did keeping Villar make this team better?  There's a whole offseason to go, let's not get ahead of ourselves.  

They won 54 games last year.  If they win 56 this year is that really an improvement?  59?  What if they win 51 games?  Are we going to be beside ourselves and lamenting how if they had Villar that they'd have been better?  We all know that this team isn't being measured on wins and losses in 2020, it's being measured on what young players can step up and identify themselves as part of a core moving forward.  It's being measured by what John Means can do in his 2nd year.  It's being measured by what AR does in the minors.  It's being measured by what we do with the draft and international signings.

Had Villar been kept, the 2020 season would NOT have been measured by his 20 homers and 40 steals.  It'd be fun to watch but that's not what the season would have been about.

But seriously Tony, I've been very vocal about cutting Davis, I think you should know this by now.  I want him gone, let's not pretend I'm okay with the Villar move and am happy that Davis is still here.  But Davis is guaranteed, whether or not he's on the roster or not he's getting that money.  

 

Maybe by the 4-dWAR he put up last year or does WAR and stats not matter any more? 

The Orioles are putting out a product to their fans. They just told them that next year, they have no intention of getting better but will actively work to make the team worse while saving money. Add in the fact the Orioles got little to no return for him, and might have if he played well next year and there was a need by a contender suddenly, and I just don't like this move any way it's presented.

As for Davis, whether he's a sunk cost or not, he brings no value to the Orioles strategic objectives, so the only thing they could be keeping him on the team for is the hopes that he finally gets tired of embarrassing himself and retires, thus getting them off the hook for the money he's not earning.

Who knows? I'm kinda done with this subject. The Orioles are where they are in the rebuild. I've said my piece. I understand why Elias did what he did but don't agree with it.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

Maybe by the 4-dWAR he put up last year or does WAR and stats not matter any more? 

The Orioles are putting out a product to their fans. They just told them that next year, they have no intention of getting better but will actively work to make the team worse while saving money. Add in the fact the Orioles got little to no return for him, and might have if he played well next year and there was a need by a contender suddenly, and I just don't like this move any way it's presented.

As for Davis, whether he's a sunk cost or not, he brings no value to the Orioles strategic objectives, so the only thing they could be keeping him on the team for is the hopes that he finally gets tired of embarrassing himself and retires, thus getting them off the hook for the money he's not earning.

Who knows? I'm kinda done with this subject. The Orioles are where they are in the rebuild. I've said my piece. I understand why Elias did what he did but don't agree with it.

My point is that 4-dWAR on a 55 win team doesn't really matter much.  

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s all a bit of a fairy tale.   In 2000, we were 71-88 and swept the Yankees to finish 74-88.    The Rangers finished 71-91, drafted 5th and took Teixeira.    We drafted 7th and took Chris Smith.   The only way we would have beaten out Texas was if we’d lost all three games that series.   (Texas did lose their final three, and 8 of their final 9, to “earn” their draft spot.)

There never was a year where the O’s went into the final weekend contending for the no. 1 pick, and “blew” it.

Well.  It sounds better when I tell it, doesn't it?   

[weams]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s all a bit of a fairy tale.   In 2000, we were 71-88 and swept the Yankees to finish 74-88.    The Rangers finished 71-91, drafted 5th and took Teixeira.    We drafted 7th and took Chris Smith.   The only way we would have beaten out Texas was if we’d lost all three games that series.   (Texas did lose their final three, and 8 of their final 9, to “earn” their draft spot.)

There never was a year where the O’s went into the final weekend contending for the no. 1 pick, and “blew” it.

Thank you.

[weams]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

My point is that 4-dWAR on a 55 win team doesn't really matter much.  

Luke has really hit on what it is. The teams have other statistics and metrics to judge these huge expenditures of money that they trust far more than the flawed catchall versions of WAR that we play with. It is OZ stuff and we don't yet know that. 

I am not even bringing up the defensive metrics for infielders that no teams are trusting. Luke did though. 

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

My point is that 4-dWAR on a 55 win team doesn't really matter much.  

Well I won't argue that Villar alone is not going to change the fortunes of the 2020 Orioles much, but it did make them a little less interesting to watch next year. If I was a casual fan, no way am I paying money to watch this team if the organization cares so little about putting any kind of redeemable product on the field during the rebuild.

I get it, no one player is going to move the needle much on this team, but having a few veteran players who are good on the team when the young guys come up can't hurt their development.

[atomic]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

At least outwardly, he seems to have accepted responsibility for his actions.    I’m assuming he actually was abusive, since MLB investigated and have him a 40-game suspension, and he has publicly apologized for his actions.   So, I don’t base my willingness to give him another chance on any doubts about whether he actually abused his ex.    Just on his concrete steps to make amends and avoid a repeat episode.    

He has already gotten a second chance.  He played with the Cubs last season. If he performed better they would have kept him.  I am all for him getting a second chance just not with the Orioles who will get no benefit of him being on our team. Why do we need another negative  attached to the team?

I am not sure guys who had one bad thing in their personal life should be banned for life.  I just don't think there is any reason a team that is not trying to be competitive to bring him aboard.   It would be like pouring salt in our wounds to replace Villar with Russell.    I think  a number of people would call for Elias' termination at that point. 

I would also note that there a lot more female fans of baseball than sports like football.   So I don't think this team can afford to alienate a large segment of their customers.

[Roll Tide]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

My point is that 4-dWAR on a 55 win team doesn't really matter much.  

It does matter as it makes a difference to the people you are trying to sell tickets to. I guess it wouldn’t matter if they were going to open the gates at game time for free or prefer to allow the yard to be invaded by the competitors fans.

As mentioned by @Tony-OH the big problem is they essentially gave him away.

Whether people wanted to Believe it Elias screwed this up royally and squandered one of the few traceable assets. He let his mouth and then the deadline devalue his trade chip.

So it’s the move that looks really bad.

You don’t tell rival GMs that you are not going to tender guy in advance of a trade and the deadline.

Its easy to sell that they moved on from Villar by pointing at the return for a rebuilding club. But in this case and the Cashner deal it’s hard to get excited about the return.

As Tony said, they could’ve tendered him or signed a reasonable extension and dealt him at a position of strength. In the meantime the Orioles could allow their fans to watch a good player play. 

[interloper]

I like the idea that Hyde would know as a former Cub. I'd trust him until proven otherwise.

[TAMC]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Villar did make it more fun.  But I'm willing to bet that the amount of people that purchased a ticket because they absolutely HAD to see Villar play in person couldn't fill an elevator.  

On the other hand, showing disdain for fans, especially season ticket holders, might change the number in the elevator.  Was it smart to not pay Villar? Maybe.  Was it smart to cancel FanFest (that has been a family tradition for us for many years)?  Maybe.  Is it smart to change the Dugout Club? Maybe.  Does all that have a cumulative effect on my desire to fork out a lot of dollars for season tickets (as I have for more than 20 years, including last year)?  You bet it does.  We have not renewed.  Maybe we will and maybe we won't.  I guarantee that if they make me mad enough to make me cancel my season tickets, I will never be back no matter how many wins and World Series they may win. 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, weams said:

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

Luke has really hit on what it is. The teams have other statistics and metrics to judge these huge expenditures of money that they trust far more than the flawed catchall versions of WAR that we play with. It is OZ stuff and we don't yet know that. 

That is the main theme of my own thoughts about letting Johnathan go. Yes, he’s a good player, and no he’s not worth 10 million, to us, or to any other team in baseball. Because nobody was willing to give anything for him except the Marlins who, I think we all agree, have, shall we say, poor leadership.

It would be a fascinating exercise to list all the non-tenders who had 1+ WAR This past season, look at their projected salary, and compare that to what they eventually sign for(because all of these guys are going to find jobs.)I think the result will bear out my contention that 1WAR is NOT worth 8 million.

I think the value is going to turn into a sliding scale. 1 WAR is fairly common, 8 WAR is Not. So, Cole or Strasbourg May well deserve 200+, 

But a guy who earns 1.5 is not worth the equivalent proportion. It’s just too easy to find ~equivalent performance for less money.

but.... to address Moose’s comment....

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I agree with @Luke-OH that Villar is likely over-rated here compared to what other teams think, likely because of better defensive metrics. I saw Villar as a bad defender at multiple positions, lol. I don't think we got much worse, if at all, in 2020 by letting him go. I'm supportive of that move, particularly in light of us owing ~$70 million as part of the MASN settlement. 

To clarify, the main reason why Villar isn't worth that much is teams are forward looking and the projection system that's out doesn't like him, I'd guess that probably isn't an anomaly, as I spelled out in an earlier post. The part about the in-house defensive metrics is more of why he's worth less than even I thought after considering forward looking projections. 

[NCRaven]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Villar did make it more fun.  But I'm willing to bet that the amount of people that purchased a ticket because they absolutely HAD to see Villar play in person couldn't fill an elevator.  

I think it's more complicated than that.  I don't think anyone consciously says, "I want to go see Villar."  But, they do say, "I want to watch the Orioles" or "I don't want to watch the Orioles."  Having Villar makes me more likely to watch the Orioles, as a team.  Now, we will have Hays and he makes me more likely to watch the team.  We might have Mountcastle after Elias is through playing control games, and that would make me more likely to watch the team.  So, it's pretty clear that I don't like the move since I don't think it helps the rebuild or shortens the timeline in any way.  And, I don't think keeping Villar would have hurt the rebuild or lengthened the timeline in any way.  But, it would have made the team more watchable, in my opinion as a fan.