Foolish Baseball - Earl Weaver Played Moneyball before Moneyball

[LA2]

On 3/20/2020 at 4:49 PM, spiritof66 said:

I was at The Horse Box that night, wedged against the wall opposite the bar. I distinctly remember that lots of the O's fans on hand, including me, were howling in protest as soon as we saw Ubaldo coming into the game. It may not have happened that way, but that's the way I remember it. 

Whenever I think back to that game -- and I try not to -- I'm reminded of the time Bill Veeck, in his first season as owner of the Browns (the same year he signed Eddie Gaedel), presented Grandstand Managers Night. The fans seated in a designated section made the Browns' lineup, in-game personnel, and strategy calls by holding up signs. Tough to do at an away game, but it might have helped against the Jays. (The Browns beat the A's, 5-3, on Grandstand Managers Night behind the pitching of Ned Garver and a big contribution from their reserve first baseman, who sported one of my all-time favorite MLB nicknames, Hank "Bow Wow" Arft. It was one of the Brownies' 52 wins that year.)

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/in-1951-bill-veeck-let-the-fans-manage-the-st-louis-browns-on-grandstand-manager 

Haha what a great concept and promotion! I didn't know there had ever been such a game.

We started out one row back from the bar but eventually wedged our way to it. But that meant people were always sticking their forearms past us to grab beers or pay. I see from your profile that you're a lawyer--it makes sense that you question the difference between reality and verbal memory! I remember that despite all the vocal devotion to the O's and the questioning of not turning the ball over to Britton, once Encarnacion hit the homer everyone left very quickly and silently, as if they had witnessed a crime but didn't want to testify. There was more post-mortem griping out in front of other places we passed on the way to the subway. Some of them had food.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

On 3/20/2020 at 3:58 PM, LA2 said:

He must realize that despite all his accomplishments, knowledge, and virtues, it will be that moment that defines his career--outside of perhaps weeping after getting fired by Steinbrenner and a few appearances on Seinfeld.

I guess people tend to remember the worst, but my enduring memory of Buck is of him standing on the dugout, arms folded, smiling as the 2012 Orioles rush the field after winning the wild card game over the Rangers.  Their first postseason win in 15 years.

[Redskins Rick]

7 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I guess people tend to remember the worst, but my enduring memory of Buck is of him standing on the dugout, arms folded, smiling as the 2012 Orioles rush the field after winning the wild card game over the Rangers.  Their first postseason win in 15 years.

That was a cherish moment in time, for sure.

[Moose Milligan]

On 3/20/2020 at 2:04 PM, PaulFolk said:

Yes, absolutely, then bring him in sooner. (I would've brought him in as early as the 8th inning). Just bring him in SOMETIME. It's inexcusable to use SIX relief pitchers (including Ubaldo, who wasn't normally a relief pitcher) and leave your best one -- the one who had a perfect, Cy Young caliber season -- rotting in the bullpen the entire game. What's hard to understand about that?

I felt like they could have gotten two innings out of Britton.  I remember wanting him in the game earlier, too.  

I also remember thinking that Buck had to have some matchup information that made him do that.  Ubaldo had been good down the stretch but still...no one wanted to see him in that situation.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I felt like they could have gotten two innings out of Britton.  I remember wanting him in the game earlier, too.  

I also remember thinking that Buck had to have some matchup information that made him do that.  Ubaldo had been good down the stretch but still...no one wanted to see him in that situation.

Of course almost all individual pitcher-batter matchup data is close to meaningless.  But I'll take what I can get - I'll accept a manager that uses meaningless matchup data over a manager that just goes with hunches.

[now]

9 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Of course almost all individual pitcher-batter matchup data is close to meaningless.  But I'll take what I can get - I'll accept a manager that uses meaningless matchup data over a manager that just goes with hunches.

So... you're saying Weaver's fabled 3X5 matchup cards were useless? And in that case wouldn't a hunch be just as meaningless (or meaningful)?

[WillyM]

On 3/23/2020 at 3:37 PM, Moose Milligan said:

I felt like they could have gotten two innings out of Britton.  I remember wanting him in the game earlier, too.  

I also remember thinking that Buck had to have some matchup information that made him do that.  Ubaldo had been good down the stretch but still...no one wanted to see him in that situation.

Here's some matchup information.

The pitcher Toronto had in the game was Francisco Liriano, who had faced five batters and gotten them all out.  In his last previous outing on Sept. 28, Liriano had pitched six scoreless innings against the Orioles.  He was matching up really well against the Orioles' offense.

Ubaldo Jimenez' last outing had been on Sept. 29 against the Blue Jays, and he had matched up really well against them, pitching six scoreless innings and allowing only one hit.  

Buck took the chance that Jimenez might be ready to match up well against the Blue Jays again, just like Liriano was matching up against the Orioles.  Obviously, it didn't work.

The last Oriole batter in that playoff game was Nolan Reimold, who pinch-hit for Hyun-Soo Kim.  Liriano struck Reimold out.

I suppose the imaginative thing for Buck to do would have been to send a different pinch-hitter up there instead of Reimold.  After all, he had a guy on the roster with a career major league batting average of .625, with five hits, including a homer and a double, in eight at-bats.

I am speaking, of course, of Zach (as he was then known) Britton.  (Never mind the fact that he was a left-handed hitter and would have been facing a left-handed pitcher.)

Think of it.  Britton could have had the chance to hit a game-winning home run and then record a save in the same game.  

[murph]

On 3/20/2020 at 11:18 PM, LA2 said:

Haha what a great concept and promotion! I didn't know there had been such a game.

We started out one row back from the bar but eventually wedged our way to it. But that meant people were always sticking their forearms past us to grab beers or pay. I see from your profile that you're a lawyer--it makes sense that you question the difference between reality and verbal memory! I remember that despite all the vocal devotion to the O's and the questioning of not turning the ball over to Britton, once Encarnacion hit the homer everyone left very quickly, as if they had witnessed a crime but didn't want to testify. There was more post-mortem griping out front of other places we passed on the way to the subway. Some of them had food.

 

Sitting stuck in my house for what seems to be something out of a twilight zone episode yet another long day (or Groundhog day), while reading this exchange between you and @spiritof66 was very enjoyable.  I was picturing Pickles (where I have been elbow stabbed many a time as you two described the jammed bar) and the recounting of that awful game was still more enjoyable than no baseball at all!  Well maybe...anyway, thanks to you both.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, now said:

So... you're saying Weaver's fabled 3X5 matchup cards were useless? And in that case wouldn't a hunch be just as meaningless (or meaningful)?

For the most part, yes.  At least if he was using them to spot in batters or pitchers because of their previous results against each other.  But I think he was also using them to see more  trends, like platoon splits and other larger data samples that would be useful to inform a hunch.

Hanser Alberto is 6-for-13 with a 1.308 OPS against J.A. Happ.  If you want to know the most likely outcomes of their future matchups you're best served by throwing out those 13 PAs and going with Alberto's .816 OPS against lefties and Happ's overall performances over his last 3-4 years.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, WillyM said:

Here's some matchup information.

The pitcher Toronto had in the game was Francisco Liriano, who had faced five batters and gotten them all out.  In his last previous outing on Sept. 28, Liriano had pitched six scoreless innings against the Orioles.  He was matching up really well against the Orioles' offense.

Ubaldo Jimenez' last outing had been on Sept. 29 against the Blue Jays, and he had matched up really well against them, pitching six scoreless innings and allowing only one hit.  

Buck took the chance that Jimenez might be ready to match up well against the Blue Jays again, just like Liriano was matching up against the Orioles.  Obviously, it didn't work.

The last Oriole batter in that playoff game was Nolan Reimold, who pinch-hit for Hyun-Soo Kim.  Liriano struck Reimold out.

I suppose the imaginative thing for Buck to do would have been to send a different pinch-hitter up there instead of Reimold.  After all, he had a guy on the roster with a career major league batting average of .625, with five hits, including a homer and a double, in eight at-bats.

I am speaking, of course, of Zach (as he was then known) Britton.  (Never mind the fact that he was a left-handed hitter and would have been facing a left-handed pitcher.)

Think of it.  Britton could have had the chance to hit a game-winning home run and then record a save in the same game.  

I assume you're just joking, clearly Britton isn't a major league hitter.  Because the best available evidence about Britton's hitting ability is that he's been in the majors for six years since his 5-for-8 performance and hasn't even been allowed to bat once.  Batting Britton in that playoff game would have been far wackier than pitching Ubaldo with the game on the line.

[LA2]

21 hours ago, WillyM said:

Here's some matchup information.

The pitcher Toronto had in the game was Francisco Liriano, who had faced five batters and gotten them all out.  In his last previous outing on Sept. 28, Liriano had pitched six scoreless innings against the Orioles.  He was matching up really well against the Orioles' offense.

Ubaldo Jimenez' last outing had been on Sept. 29 against the Blue Jays, and he had matched up really well against them, pitching six scoreless innings and allowing only one hit.  

Buck took the chance that Jimenez might be ready to match up well against the Blue Jays again, just like Liriano was matching up against the Orioles.  Obviously, it didn't work.

The last Oriole batter in that playoff game was Nolan Reimold, who pinch-hit for Hyun-Soo Kim.  Liriano struck Reimold out.

I suppose the imaginative thing for Buck to do would have been to send a different pinch-hitter up there instead of Reimold.  After all, he had a guy on the roster with a career major league batting average of .625, with five hits, including a homer and a double, in eight at-bats.

I am speaking, of course, of Zach (as he was then known) Britton.  (Never mind the fact that he was a left-handed hitter and would have been facing a left-handed pitcher.)

Think of it.  Britton could have had the chance to hit a game-winning home run and then record a save in the same game.  

My pet theory has always been that Buck conjectured that the Orioles were not going to score until Liriano was out of the game. Not only had they not done well against him previously, but had had a miserable season against LHP in general; watching them desperately flail that night probably only strengthened Buck's belief in that regard. That is why (a) he went with Ubaldo, who, if he survived his often rocky first inning, could give him several, possibly 4-5 innings of relief, after which the game would turn into a contest between Britton and the inferior remnants of the Jays' bullpen (advantage decidedly to Baltimore) and (b) he refused, out of a sense of honor and looking forward to keeping the clubhouse in 2017, to offer an explanation in the dismal aftermath: he didn't want to insult his hitters by revealing his lack of faith in their ability to solve Liriano.

In short, Buck over-thought it. He outsmarted himself into not using his best weapon.

As for the opposing manager, using Liriano, who had been a candidate to start the game until very late, as a long reliever was a great decision by John Gibbons, someone whom I usually saw more reason to poke fun at than admire. It helped to even out what was one of the clear Oriole advantages: their vastly superior bullpen.

       *     *

Thank you for the fantasy of Zach winning the game with both his bat and 95-mph sinker. It helps to take the thorns off the memory.