Mussina and Palmer

[Frobby]

Okay. My theory is that most leadoff hitters on any team will draw more walks generally than the rest of their teammates for two reasons:

1. They are the first hitter a starting pitcher faces and frequently they struggle with control in the first inning moreso than any other.

2. The main goal of a leadoff man is to get on base. Much moreso than any other spot in the lineup. Ergo, why he is called "The Tablesetter."

These two factors alone will explain why they generally draw more walks. It is their job to do so - get on base any way possible.

Your theory is wrong, at least in 2008.

So far this year, the average team draws 63 walks from the no. 1 spot. The no. 3 spot draws 69 walks, and the no. 4 spot 66. Note that the no. 1 spot gets more plate appearances than any other, so as a percentage of plate appearances, the difference would be a bit more pronounced.

[Skeletor]

Your theory is wrong, at least in 2008.

So far this year, the average team draws 63 walks from the no. 1 spot. The no. 3 spot draws 69 walks, and the no. 4 spot 66. Note that the no. 1 spot gets more plate appearances than any other, so as a percentage of plate appearances, the difference would be a bit more pronounced.

While taking walks is most definitely a skill, the no 3 and no 4 hitters walking more is just as likely attributable to pitchers less willing to make mistakes to these guys.

[DrungoHazewood]

Really? You sincerely believe that?

He doesn't sincerely believe anything.

[Maverick2143]

I would say they focus more on attaining a walk, than say the third or fourth hitters in a lineup who focus more on driving the runners in on base or themselves in. Again, it goes back to the specific roles normally assigned to different spots in the lineup. The leadoff hitter in general has the primary focus of getting on base anyway he can, bunt, HBP, walk, or regular hits. I would agree that Sizemore had a high skill level of getting on base. However, I also think that if they moved him to third in the lineup his walks would probably go down and his power and rbi's would go up as he would adjust to a different role. Again, this is just my own theory though. I cannot prove it.

Then what is the big stink against OBP? This is what OBP shows. If you looked at just BA you would think that Brian Roberts is a better lead-off hitter than Sizemore because his BA is higher than Sizemore. But when you look at their ability to get on base you see that they have equal .378 OBP%. When you add in their slugging% (IE. power) you see that Sizemore is better.

All these different stats show is a different piece of the puzzle. I love the analogy of lens (I can't remember who said it, but it was brilliant), and I like to take it a step further by comparing them to the glasses in the movie National Treasure. In the movie Nicholas Cage finds these glasses that were made by Ben Franklin that allow him to view the map on the back of the Declaration of Independence. This glasses have 4 or 5 different colored lenses on each side that he can move up and down. Depending on the configuration he can see different things on the map that were written in different invisible inks.

I like to compare baseball stats to these different lenses. When you look at player with you naked eye you see a piece of paper, when you look at a player through one of lens you see part of the picture. When you start combining them you see more and more of the total "hidden" picture. Sometimes you can see the most of picture with one or two lenses, but other times you have to use 5 or 6 together to get the total clear picture. Not using a lens because you don't like the color, only denies yourself a different view of the total picture.

[DrungoHazewood]

Let me ask you a very simple question then. I am asking the question under the assumption that you at some point in your life, whether Little League, Pony League, Senior League, High School ball, etc. played in at least some form of organized baseball.

So under this assumption assume you are batting against a pitcher named Simply Wild. He throws equivilent to 95 mph but each pitch he throws is either in the dirt, so high it goes straight to the backstop, or so far outside you couldn't reach it with a boat paddle. You trot down to first base on four pitches. Now how difficult was that for you as a hitter? Simply wild walks the bases loaded and then hits two batters and is removed from the game.

Next inning you are batting against his twin brother who replaced him and his name is Simply Money, and he throws 90 mph with a wicked slider that he breaks in on your hands. You foul off four straight 90 plus fastballs and take two borderline sliders. You foul off another fastball and then he throws you a nasty slider that would be a strike if called and you swing and miss.

Which at bat took way more baseball skill on your part?

Which at bat looks better in your statbook?

I rest my case.

Like I said, the more you type, the more everyone confirms that you're an alias designed to stir up stuff with the most outrageous posts you can come up with.

[Frobby]

While taking walks is most definitely a skill, the no 3 and no 4 hitters walking more is just as likely attributable to pitchers less willing to make mistakes to these guys.

There is probably some truth to that, but so what? If a hitter walks more often because the pitchers are afraid of him, why shouldn't he get credit for that?

[DrungoHazewood]

Again, this is just my own theory though. I cannot prove it.

This should be your tagline. Get rid of the smug/smog thing - these two sentences apply to 98% of your posts.

[TGO]

This is your brain on this thread:

<img src = http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a6/Three_fried_eggs.jpg/796px-Three_fried_eggs.jpg>

[Frobby]

This is your brain on this thread:

Hey, it was a good thread for 10-12 pages.

I guess I should mention that Mussina lost his last start, and therefore did not equal Palmer's W/L record.

Palmer: 268-152

Mussina: 267-153

Another "almost" for Moose.

[TGO]

Hey, it was a good thread for 10-12 pages.

I guess I should mention that Mussina lost his last start, and therefore did not equal Palmer's W/L record.

Palmer: 268-152

Mussina: 267-153

Another "almost" for Moose.

Mike Mussina: ALMOST half as good as, uh, Dave McNally's left pinky finger.

[Enjoy Terror]

Let me ask you a very simple question then. I am asking the question under the assumption that you at some point in your life, whether Little League, Pony League, Senior League, High School ball, etc. played in at least some form of organized baseball.

So under this assumption assume you are batting against a pitcher named Simply Wild. He throws equivilent to 95 mph but each pitch he throws is either in the dirt, so high it goes straight to the backstop, or so far outside you couldn't reach it with a boat paddle. You trot down to first base on four pitches. Now how difficult was that for you as a hitter? Simply wild walks the bases loaded and then hits two batters and is removed from the game.

Next inning you are batting against his twin brother who replaced him and his name is Simply Money, and he throws 90 mph with a wicked slider that he breaks in on your hands. You foul off four straight 90 plus fastballs and take two borderline sliders. You foul off another fastball and then he throws you a nasty slider that would be a strike if called and you swing and miss.

Which at bat took way more baseball skill on your part?

Which at bat looks better in your statbook?

I rest my case.

You can't rest your case because Simply Wild doesn't pitch enough to make your argument worthwhile. If Simply Wild is consistent with his wildness, in 34 starts (if he were to even make that many) if he sent 6 men to 1st base and then got pulled from every start, he could only pitch to a maximum of 204 batters in an entire season.

This is such a small sample size, and we know that even the most wild pitcher is not that bad. Daniel Cabrera (the undisputed wildest pitcher this year) has only walked 90 people in 851 batters faced this year (10.6%), 647 more than Simply Wild, provided Simply Wild pitched a full season, which after a half dozen may not see the mound again anyway.

So no at bat will ever be as easy as seeing Simply Wild. The league by nature eliminates bad pitchers. And everyone in the league gets to face Daniel Cabrera at least once. If everyone gets to be pitched to by him, then the playing field is levelled anyway. Daniel Cabrera probably pitched most to whom... AL east opponents? He only started playing Boston 5 times. If Pedroia is the leadoff batter, we can expect that AT MOST Pedroia was pitched to by Cabrera 20 times.

20 times out of Pedroia's 611 at bats... even if he took all walks from Simply Wild or Daniel Cabrera.. it accounts for very little, actually 3.2% of his at bats. Assuming Pedroia as a divisional leadoff hitter got the most at bats by Cabrera of any other batter, everyone else is a lot less than that. Your logic is flawed.

[rolliefingers]

My mind, it is blown.

[ledzepp8]

<img src="http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=104&pictureid=368">

[ledzepp8]

What you say is extremely generic. I would agree only that the leadoff hitter's primary goal is to get on base. I would tend to think the second hitter's goal is to either bring him in or move him over, and the three and four hitters drive them in. That is how I was taught the game of base ball works, in that each spot in the lineup has certain specific roles tailored to them.

Well besides the occasional sacrifice or RBI groundout, how do you think this is done without said batters getting on base?

[ChaosLex]

<img src="http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=104&pictureid=368">

I owe you a beer. :clap3::laughlol::wedge: