The Future Of Baseball

[DrungoHazewood]

I haven't read a lot of Joe Posnanski lately, I think he's gone behind a paywall and there's only so many little things you can pay to read or watch.  But he has an interesting and free piece out a few days ago wondering who is looking out for the game of baseball.  It's really no one.  The major league players are looking out for the major league players, the owners for themselves, and that's kind of it.  There is no larger governing body of baseball, and I don't know if a FIFA for baseball would accomplish what I'm describing anyway.

This isn't directly Orioles-related, but it is indirectly.  He touches on the game being 4th-most popular among Americans, and kind of distantly behind football, basketball and soccer among those under 40.  I think we see that here, the age of Hangout posters probably reflects baseball fan demographics (average age over 55) pretty well. 

And he talks a little about the dearth of African Americans in baseball.  Baltimore is a minority-majority city, yet the sigfnicant majority of Oriole players and coaches and front office personnel are white.  I don't know if that's a chicken and egg thing (or what's the cause and what's the effect?), but it can't be positive for the Orioles or the game that most people in their own city see the sport as kind of an afterthought.  They'd much rather watch the Ravens or other sports.

In the end Poz doesn't really offer any solutions, probably because there aren't any easy ones.  What's popular and what's not is elusive.  You can't do One Simple Thing and suddenly everyone under the age of 20 wants to be a baseball player like it's 1920 all over again.  But I do think that baseball tilts too far towards nostalgia and history when making decisions, and has difficulty tailoring rules and marketing and putting together a vision of what makes the game exciting to younger people.  And that's mostly because of the reactions of the core fan base, the older white guys who react very negatively towards changing the game, seemingly more content with a niche sport that's just like what they watched as kids (even though strikeouts and homers and other things have changed pretty radically) than taking proactive steps that might make things different in ways they don't like.

But most of all for this moment, nobody is taking the MLBPA and the owners aside and saying, "hey, I know you want what you think is yours and you don't want to set a precedent in the new CBA negotiations, but (*whack*) you're killing baseball here!"  If they don't get their stuff together and give us some kind of a season, a lot of people will go through the summer without any baseball and they'll realize that it just wasn't a big deal.  And it'll be that much harder to turn it around with the younger crowd.

[Moose Milligan]

In regards to African Americans, it's not a coincidence that hip hop culture gravitates towards football and basketball, not baseball.  

Baseball is losing.  They try to market to a younger demographic (Let the kids play!  )  and it's just so lame.  But at least they try.

You can set up electronic strike zones, you can move the mound up and down or back and forth, you can introduce pitch clocks or quicken the amount of time it takes for a reliever to trot in from the bullpen, you can juice the ball, you can have 10 guys on a team that can throw 95+....

...it doesn't matter.  

Speaking of Poz, I've been reading a lot of his stuff over the last year.  And he said in a column a couple months ago that baseball's problem is...that it IS boring.  Until it's not.  It's boring with quick bursts of action that don't last too long.

And so all of the other stuff doesn't matter, all these things we can think of and banter about to make the game "better" don't change the inherent problem that it's a boring, leisurely game.  An electronic strike zone doesn't change that.  Actually, if you want to take some of the fun out of the game and not see a manager or a player get tossed for arguing balls and strikes, sure, implement an electronic strike zone.  

But baseball's problem will always remain the same...it's a slow game in a world that's becoming increasingly fast paced.

[osfan83]

I think we have to resolve ourselves to the fact that baseball will probably mainly be an older persons sport for now. Maybe it's something that you age into like appreciating expensive wine or watching Wheel of Fortune. 

Maybe 100 years from now there will be no such thing as baseball, and that's probably okay. I'm sure many things that passed for entertainment in 1782 no longer exist. 

[DrungoHazewood]

24 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

But baseball's problem will always remain the same...it's a slow game in a world that's becoming increasingly fast paced.

Except that it doesn't have to be.  Everyone is probably tired of me saying this, but in the 1800s baseball games were often played in 90 minutes.  In 1920 the average game was two hours, and occasionally you'd see a game played in a little over an hour.  Baseball has made choices over many years that have resulted in a game that's not only three hours long, but also with long pauses between stuff happening.  

It doesn't have to be that way.  We think in tunnels and bubbles and are familiar with what we see every day.  Baseball can be played with two strikeouts a game, lots of balls in play and steals and defensive excellence, and nine innings can be over in 90 minutes.  But a lot of proactive steps need to be taken to get us back there. The first of which is the powers-that-be need to really forcefully acknowledge that they have a problem.  Which they don't, at least in part because large changes create uncertainty and force teams to shift strategies, and that's hard and what they do today won't be as successful.  So inertia and status quo forever...

[DrungoHazewood]

29 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

I think we have to resolve ourselves to the fact that baseball will probably mainly be an older persons sport for now. Maybe it's something that you age into like appreciating expensive wine or watching Wheel of Fortune. 

Maybe 100 years from now there will be no such thing as baseball, and that's probably okay. I'm sure many things that passed for entertainment in 1782 no longer exist. 

Cricket was around in 1782, and is still the most popular sport in a number of countries.  That may be the baseball model.   A niche sport, but perhaps the niche will be big enough that it won't be terribly different from today.

Even if MLB decides to proactively change things to make the game faster, more action-packed and more appealing to a wider audience there is no guarantee that it will work.  What's cool and fun and engaging is hard, especially when you're trying to pivot from a slow, stodgy old man's game to something cooler.  It's like Cadillac.  They've had tremendous problems trying to go from your grandpa's car to a BMW competitor because it's too hard to shake the grandpa's car label, even if they've objectively out-BMW'd BMW is a lot of ways.

[Aristotelian]

People have been lamenting the decline of baseball for years, yet ratings and revenues have been going up. I find worries about speed to be insulting. The game is popular and taught to kids all over the world. I agree the owners and players have been the dominant voices in the current situation and it's unfortunate but I wouldn't read anything larger into a very unusual situation.

[TommyPickles]

I'm 29.  I coach a high school baseball team in Philly. We just started the program two years ago.  The school is 98% Black.

We're not the only new team in the city.  My kids love it.

 

Now obviously this anecdote does not invalidate the points made above.  I do think professional baseball has a looming crisis with younger viewers.  I don't think it's hopeless though.

I think it's important to point out that last season Americans bought 68.4 million tickets to MLB games. Yes that was down from the year before, but still, that's a LOT of tickets. It's over 100 million when you include the minors. By the way, the highest ever year for MLB ticket sales? It wasn't from some bygone golden era decades ago, it was 2007.  

Also, NFL ticket sales were down last year. Way down.  It was their worst year of ticket sales since 2002.

 

I'm curious what the fandom will look like if we end up with a 50ish game season this year?  I think it will be an interesting experiment to see if younger fans are more interested in a a more fast-paced season.  Kids do have short attention spans these days...

[Moose Milligan]

 

39 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It doesn't have to be that way.  We think in tunnels and bubbles and are familiar with what we see every day.  Baseball can be played with two strikeouts a game, lots of balls in play and steals and defensive excellence, and nine innings can be over in 90 minutes.  But a lot of proactive steps need to be taken to get us back there. The first of which is the powers-that-be need to really forcefully acknowledge that they have a problem.  Which they don't, at least in part because large changes create uncertainty and force teams to shift strategies, and that's hard and what they do today won't be as successful.  So inertia and status quo forever...

I'd be all for two strikeouts in a game, more steals, more defense, etc.  But the MLBPA wouldn't go for having the pitchers mound moved back, that's unrealistic.  Name one pitcher that would be in favor of moving the mound back 6 inches, 2 feet, 4 feet, etc.  It's just not going to happen.  

You also have had the game progress this far to get to a point where there's 10 guys on a roster that can approach and hit triple digits on the radar gun.  That's not going away.  And guys like Mike Trout, that's not going away, either.

I don't disagree that choices have been made over the years to get the game where it is today.  But good luck on getting them to budge on any of it, from mound distance to commercial breaks to balls and strikes, etc.  You're right that they have to acknowledge that they have a problem...and they do.  The problem is that they won't do anything significant and so they come up with something dumb and inconsequential like the 3 batter rule.

IMO, cut commercial breaks in half, see what happens.  But that's sacrilegious, too.

[DrungoHazewood]

30 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

I'd be all for two strikeouts in a game, more steals, more defense, etc.  But the MLBPA wouldn't go for having the pitchers mound moved back, that's unrealistic.  Name one pitcher that would be in favor of moving the mound back 6 inches, 2 feet, 4 feet, etc.  It's just not going to happen.  

You also have had the game progress this far to get to a point where there's 10 guys on a roster that can approach and hit triple digits on the radar gun.  That's not going away.  And guys like Mike Trout, that's not going away, either.

I don't disagree that choices have been made over the years to get the game where it is today.  But good luck on getting them to budge on any of it, from mound distance to commercial breaks to balls and strikes, etc.  You're right that they have to acknowledge that they have a problem...and they do.  The problem is that they won't do anything significant and so they come up with something dumb and inconsequential like the 3 batter rule.

IMO, cut commercial breaks in half, see what happens.  But that's sacrilegious, too.

We're talking about existential threats to the game.  As I type that it sounds a little alarmist and silly, but... we are to the point where baseball is about as popular as luge with 20-year-olds*.  If this COVID situation and the owner/MLBPA slap-fight cancels the whole season this could be an inflection point, where the game has a moment of self-reflection and realizes things have to fundamentally change.  More likely it won't happen and we'll continue a long, slow decline.

Usually fundamental change happens with big organizations by some smaller, agile organization out-flanking them, and they're forced to change or die.  But MLB has set up a nice baseball monopoly, so good luck with a startup league that's focused on action getting a foothold.

* If I had a luge track a few miles from my house I would have already forsaken all other sports for icy sliding glory.

[MongoBoy]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

* If I had a luge track a few miles from my house I would have already forsaken all other sports for icy sliding glory.

Don't give out your real name.  We've got pictures.

[sevastras]

I dont watch soccer unless it is the men's World Cup.  I dont like basketball any more.  I am watching less and less football because it has gotten soft.  But I would say I watch on average 100 full games of baseball a year on tv(I dont live close to a professional stadium and I hate going to rookie league games because they are a sloppy mess).  I am 39, so I guess I am getting old.  My wife probably watches 50 or so games a year and she is definitely old, 36.  

I dont think the game is the problem, I think it is the marketing, your Cadillac comparison, and people now a days cant go two seconds with out something in front of their face like social media or candy crush.  Before my wife gave up facebook on her phone, she would be standing in line at the grocery store and pull it up on her phone for no apparent reason.  The younger generation is addicted to constant stimulation.  I would bet lots and lots of dollars that a large majority of US people under the age of 35 who say they are soccer fans are actually fans of sounding hip and spend most of their time talking or on their phone when they gather with friends to watch a match on tv.  Hell, I bet I watch more World Cup matches than most American soccer "fans".

Baseball is a beautiful game.  There is so much happening within the game, but I am preaching to the choir here.

As far as African Americans in baseball:  I think kids would rather play football or basketball because there is an instant pay day and instantly drafted straight to professional leagues.  Younger generations want instant gratification.  That is the biggest complaint that the older generation has with millennials is that they grew up with stuff and when they got to the age of being out on their own they feel entitled to continue to have stuff instead of working for it.  It is a right now society.

For non playing positions, can we really say that there are not enough African Americans within those positions if we dont know the rate of applications being put in for those jobs?  I mean if there are 500 people applying for a job and 3 are black, those are pretty low odds that they would be the best candidate.  Not because they are inferior in any way, but theoretically anyone who applies for that job would have a 1 and 500 chance of getting it.  And as a business owner, I am less concerned about diversification than I am about hiring the best candidate for the job.  I would also say that some people would give a slight edge to a minority group over a white applicant to make sure they dont appear racist.  I guess my point is, I dont think you have a large candidate pool, therefore you dont have a large number within the ranks of MLB.  Just like women within the league, do you think that there are droves of women who are applying for positions and are just being passed over strictly because they are women?

[Moose Milligan]

27 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

We're talking about existential threats to the game.  As I type that it sounds a little alarmist and silly, but... we are to the point where baseball is about as popular as luge with 20-year-olds*.  If this COVID situation and the owner/MLBPA slap-fight cancels the whole season this could be an inflection point, where the game has a moment of self-reflection and realizes things have to fundamentally change.  More likely it won't happen and we'll continue a long, slow decline.

Usually fundamental change happens with big organizations by some smaller, agile organization out-flanking them, and they're forced to change or die.  But MLB has set up a nice baseball monopoly, so good luck with a startup league that's focused on action getting a foothold.

* If I had a luge track a few miles from my house I would have already forsaken all other sports for icy sliding glory.

Hey man, I get it.  I don't disagree.

We can talk about the existential threats to the game but we also need to talk about how stubborn the MLBPA and the owners are.  That's a whole big reason for a long, slow decline.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, sevastras said:

I dont watch soccer unless it is the men's World Cup.  I dont like basketball any more.  I am watching less and less football because it has gotten soft.  But I would say I watch on average 100 full games of baseball a year on tv(I dont live close to a professional stadium and I hate going to rookie league games because they are a sloppy mess).  I am 39, so I guess I am getting old.  My wife probably watches 50 or so games a year and she is definitely old, 36.  

I dont think the game is the problem, I think it is the marketing, your Cadillac comparison, and people now a days cant go two seconds with out something in front of their face like social media or candy crush.  Before my wife gave up facebook on her phone, she would be standing in line at the grocery store and pull it up on her phone for no apparent reason.  The younger generation is addicted to constant stimulation.  I would bet lots and lots of dollars that a large majority of US people under the age of 35 who say they are soccer fans are actually fans of sounding hip and spend most of their time talking or on their phone when they gather with friends to watch a match on tv.  Hell, I bet I watch more World Cup matches than most American soccer "fans".

Baseball is a beautiful game.  There is so much happening within the game, but I am preaching to the choir here.

As far as African Americans in baseball:  I think kids would rather play football or basketball because there is an instant pay day and instantly drafted straight to professional leagues.  Younger generations want instant gratification.  That is the biggest complaint that the older generation has with millennials is that they grew up with stuff and when they got to the age of being out on their own they feel entitled to continue to have stuff instead of working for it.  It is a right now society.

For non playing positions, can we really say that there are not enough African Americans within those positions if we dont know the rate of applications being put in for those jobs?  I mean if there are 500 people applying for a job and 3 are black, those are pretty low odds that they would be the best candidate.  Not because they are inferior in any way, but theoretically anyone who applies for that job would have a 1 and 500 chance of getting it.  And as a business owner, I am less concerned about diversification than I am about hiring the best candidate for the job.  I would also say that some people would give a slight edge to a minority group over a white applicant to make sure they dont appear racist.  I guess my point is, I dont think you have a large candidate pool, therefore you dont have a large number within the ranks of MLB.  Just like women within the league, do you think that there are droves of women who are applying for positions and are just being passed over strictly because they are women?

• I've been to countless DC United matches where one entire side of the stadium stands and cheers and sings and throws beer and yells and beats drums and waves banners and lights flares the whole game.  The Screaming Eagles and Barra Brava and El Norte are waaaaay more into the game than pretty much anyone at any regular season MLB game.  The average 2019 MLS match had more fans than a 2019 Orioles game.  And Portland and Atlanta and a few other places regularly draw 30,000-50,000 fans.  I doubt they all paid to be there only to be seen and be counted as cool at a sport they don't like.
• I get that it's usually in an employer's best interest to hire the people with the best qualifications.  But baseball is a company that has to think about not only their immediate needs, but the next generation of players and fans.  If you constantly take the Ivy Leaguer as your intern instead of the guy from Howard, the guy from Howard goes to the NFL or the NBA or college basketball and slowly takes a little part of the fanbase and future player base with him, and that's at least a small part of why large demographics don't really care about baseball any more.
• I shy away from broad generalizations about generations of people.  Yes, millennials have a somewhat different perspective than 40 or 50 or 60-year-olds.  But I have a bunch of them working for me as engineers and technicians and analysts who are fantastic employees, they work hard, they get results.  If baseball gives up on them because of stereotypes about how they won't watch games with depth and nuance, the sport will be worse off for it.

[UpstateNYfan]

The death of baseball has more to do with the number of sport choices youth has today. Forty years ago, there was basically two youth (male) organizations recognized at the national level, Little League and Pop Warner football. Some other sports began to expand, CYO basketball (male), youth soccer programs (maybe the first co-ed). Overtime, more expansion....volleyball, hockey, gymnastics, cheerleading teams, club basketball, girls' softball and more.As time went on, many of these sports were not seasonal, some lasting 9 months of the year.  Travel teams began. Nine year old's  (or parents) told to make decisions, chose a sport (two at most). Baseball had setbacks, mainly unplayable weather in most of the country half the year, kids families with summer vacations, so a limited season. Even high school sports became specialized off season eight programs, "unofficial" summer basketball teams ("not coached" by the HS coach..but he or she in stands). Today, three sport HS athletes are rare. Back in the day, kids would grab their gloves, say adios and disappear to the local park and do pick up games or some random variation of the game. In Rochester, Kodak had an organization called KPAA, part of it was a summer softball program...send in an application, they assigned you to a team....you'd grab a bus (and transfer) and go to some field in a 20 mile radius and play with strangers. You go to the same parks today and they are barren, no kids playing.  You watch youth baseball (non travel) practices and kids are not involved. You watch games of 6-7 with kids pitching that have trouble hitting the backstop...kids picking dandelions in the field. Baseball is a difficult game to coach, let alone the rules. You wonder why baseball is failing. Watch other, youth sports like hockey and watch their skill developing programs..skill not games. Likewise, with youth basketball programs. A lot of rambling here, but baseball interests will likely continue to decline.

[survivedc]

13 minutes ago, UpstateNYfan said:

The death of baseball has more to do with the number of sport choices youth has today. Forty years ago, there was basically two youth (male) organizations recognized at the national level, Little League and Pop Warner football. Some other sports began to expand, CYO basketball (male), youth soccer programs (maybe the first co-ed). Overtime, more expansion....volleyball, hockey, gymnastics, cheerleading teams, club basketball, girls' softball and more.As time went on, many of these sports were not seasonal, some lasting 9 months of the year.  Travel teams began. Nine year old's  (or parents) told to make decisions, chose a sport (two at most). Baseball had setbacks, mainly unplayable weather in most of the country half the year, kids families with summer vacations, so a limited season. Even high school sports became specialized off season eight programs, "unofficial" summer basketball teams ("not coached" by the HS coach..but he or she in stands). Today, three sport HS athletes are rare. Back in the day, kids would grab their gloves, say adios and disappear to the local park and do pick up games or some random variation of the game. In Rochester, Kodak had an organization called KPAA, part of it was a summer softball program...send in an application, they assigned you to a team....you'd grab a bus (and transfer) and go to some field in a 20 mile radius and play with strangers. You go to the same parks today and they are barren, no kids playing.  You watch youth baseball (non travel) practices and kids are not involved. You watch games of 6-7 with kids pitching that have trouble hitting the backstop...kids picking dandelions in the field. Baseball is a difficult game to coach, let alone the rules. You wonder why baseball is failing. Watch other, youth sports like hockey and watch their skill developing programs..skill not games. Likewise, with youth basketball programs. A lot of rambling here, but baseball interests will likely continue to decline.

I don’t think most of this is true. May be true anecdotally but from what I’ve read Youth Baseball participation has been up the last 4-5 straight years, at least in the 6-12 range. Football has taken a hit more than any other sport in recent years due to health concerns and hockey/lacrosse seem to be very geographically driven.