BA's Eastern League Top 20 (you might not like this)

[slappy12]

I can easily see Bergesen not being on that list. He had a great season, but he's really not a great prospect.

I'm surprised at no Hernandez, but I'm guessing the fact that he's 23 and still struggles with his command might be a factor.

I'm guessing the only thing keeping Reimold off the list is age.

The breakdown of the top 20 by age is :

20 - 4

21 - 3

22 - 7

23 - 4

24 - 1

#8 must be misspelled.

[Stotle]

The breakdown of the top 20 by age is :

20 - 4

21 - 3

22 - 7

23 - 4

24 - 1

#8 must be misspelled.

J.P. Arencibia is a C out of Tennessee (drafted by TOR in Rd1 '07). He's 22.

[Tony-OH]

That is indeed a very strong list of prospects.

However, for Golson to be on that list is a joke. Managers I guess are impressed with his athleticism and tools. Here are his K%, BB%, and power numbers (ISO) the past couple years:

06, A - 25.8.....4.6......113

06, A+ - 30.6...6.4.....208

07, A+ - 27.5...5.1.....165

07, AA - 31......1.3.....117

08, AA - 27.7....7.7.....152

I'm confident he will not hit at the MLB level and Reimold will be a more productive player.

Bard - he's had a great year, but he's a reliever. He's too high on the list.

Niese - he's too low on the list

I think Reimold should of squeeked in there, but yes, that is hard list to crack.

I've seen Golson and I would take Reimold over him every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Golson is much better defensively, but I'm not a fan of of plate discipline and although his power is starting to come through and he's two years younger, I still think Reimold's ceiling is higher.

I'm a little surprised Hernandez didn't get on the list towards the end, but I'm not overly surprised that only Tillman made the top 20.

[BowieMike]

I've seen Golson and I would take Reimold over him every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Golson is much better defensively, but I'm not a fan of of plate discipline and although his power is starting to come through and he's two years younger, I still think Reimold's ceiling is higher.

I'm a little surprised Hernandez didn't get on the list towards the end, but I'm not overly surprised that only Tillman made the top 20.

You nailed it on Golson. That was the one selection on this list that jumped out at me. Good player? Yes. Would I take him over guys like Reimold and Wilkin Ramirez? No way.

[Frobby]

The official BA list came out today. BA commented:

Bowie didn't place any other player in the top 20 [besides Wieters and Tillman], but that's only because of the depth of the league. Other Baysox receiving support included outfielders Nolan Reimold, who homered four times against Akron in the playoffs, and Lou Montanez, who rejuvenated his career by winning the EL triple crown and MVP award at age 26; and righthanders Brad Bergesen (the EL pitcher of the year), Jason Berken and David Hernandez (the league strikeout leader).

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2008/266940.html

If anyone has access to the chat, I'd be interested in any other comments.

[jamesenoch]

The official BA list came out today. BA commented:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2008/266940.html

If anyone has access to the chat, I'd be interested in any other comments.

Q: David Hernandez from Bowie asks:

Why do you hate me?

A: John Manuel: Because you're probably just a middle reliever, and most league observers liked the other pitchers for Bowie, Brad Bergesen and Jason Berken, as better bets. Hernandez is more of a two-pitch guy right now, but at times both are plus, and he actually gets swings and misses with his fastball in addition to his slider. But all three are factors and give good depth to an improving Orioles system. So I guess I DON'T hate you David, I just like others better. I'm trying to teach my four-year-old to accentuate the positive here guys . . .you're not helping!

Q: Randall from Cleveland asks:

Did any other Bowie players just miss the list? Most notably Reimold, Hernandez and Bergesen, who all had great seasons. 21-30 range?

A: John Manuel: Reimold was in that 21-25 mix with Wilkin Ramirez & Jason Donald. Reimold produces, but he's a bit unorthodox, which is why it seems like people are a bit cool on him at first. His power is for real. Hernandez I've touched on; Bergesen and Berken could be fourth or fifth starters with four solid or fringe-average pitches and good command, with Bergesen, the league pitcher of the year, getting the edge. Also, I found a lot of Kam Mickolio interest in the EL, which is understandable since he's such a power arm. He clearly has a lot of command issues and rough edges to iron out if you saw him in the big leagues at all, but he's got a shot to be an interesting middle reliever with his cross-body delivery and velocity. I guarantee that I'm the charter member of the Kam Mickolio fan club outside the states of Montana (where he's from) and Utah (he played at Utah Valley State). Very glad he made the big leagues.

Q: mark from cali asks:

chris tillman is a stud. what's his ETA in the big leagues?

A: John Manuel: Depends on him; the Orioles would love to wait until 2010 and be patient with him, and as I've said already, they have other options for stop-gap guys such as Berken, Bergeson, Hernandez, etc. But Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz are the guys the big league team's rotation will revolve around 2-4 years down the road, and they should be good enough to be a foundation for a competitive big league team. Nothing really not to like about Tillman for me.

Q: Joe LeCates from Easton, MD asks:

Mr. Manuel, thank you for the chat as always. Perhaps his age finds him to be fringy as a prospect, but what are your thoughts on Montanez? I recall his defensive woes early in his career carried over into the rest of his game and shot his confidence; could he legimately be a late-bloomer?

A: John Manuel: Managers in the league liked Montanez; scouts were a bit more skeptical, but he's got a chance to be a good fourth outfielder. Two years ago, he would have gotten a full shot in Baltimore, but now the Orioles have Jones & Markakis and Luke Scott and no real room for Montanez unless he's in the Jay Payton role as the platoon "handcuff," in the fantasy football parlance.

Q: Russ from Louisville asks:

What was it that made Tillman list above Snider? Just looking at his numbers, Tillman seems very solid, but not dominant. Am I missing something?

A: John Manuel: I guess you didn't read the scouting report. Tillman has a chance to be an ace, a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, and that to me had more value than Snider profiling as an offensive LF. If Snider were more well-rounded, maybe, if he were a right fielder, I might have gone with him ahead of Tillman. Snider also strikes out a lot, so I have a tiny amount of doubt in my mind about his bat being quite as good as most people think it will be.

Q: James from North East, MD asks:

I am hesitant to get excited over the next crop of Orioles pitching prospects (Tillman, Arrita, Matusz, Erbe, etc) when the current crop has been so disappointing (Loewen, Penn, Olson, Liz, etc). What are your thoughts?

A: John Manuel: This group's a lot better, though Loewen was expected to be as good as any of these guys. Liz & Olson and Penn, those guys just weren't in the same league, I don't believe, as Matusz & Arrieta. Erbe is more like Liz & those guys, upside but less of a sure thing.

Q: James from North East, MD asks:

Tillman and Erbe are the same age. Compare the 2. Why is one in Double-A, and the other in Single-A?

A: John Manuel: Tillman's much more polished, much more command, not truly comparable. Erbe has a bigger arm, no other advantage.

Q: Blake Guyer from Madison, WI asks:

Is Matt Wieters the same player as Joe Mauer if Mauer conceded 30 batting average pts for 15-20 more bombs on an annual basis?

A: John Manuel: Not the defender that Mauer is, but he's got a chance to be more productive offensively, which is kind of hard to believe.

[Sports Guy]

Q: David Hernandez from Bowie asks:

Why do you hate me?

A: John Manuel: Because you're probably just a middle reliever, and most league observers liked the other pitchers for Bowie, Brad Bergesen and Jason Berken, as better bets. Hernandez is more of a two-pitch guy right now, but at times both are plus, and he actually gets swings and misses with his fastball in addition to his slider. But all three are factors and give good depth to an improving Orioles system. So I guess I DON'T hate you David, I just like others better. I'm trying to teach my four-year-old to accentuate the positive here guys . . .you're not helping!

Uh oh...Waiting for an explosion here.

Did any other Bowie players just miss the list? Most notably Reimold, Hernandez and Bergesen, who all had great seasons. 21-30 range?

A: John Manuel: Reimold was in that 21-25 mix with Wilkin Ramirez & Jason Donald. Reimold produces, but he's a bit unorthodox, which is why it seems like people are a bit cool on him at first. His power is for real. Hernandez I've touched on; Bergesen and Berken could be fourth or fifth starters with four solid or fringe-average pitches and good command, with Bergesen, the league pitcher of the year, getting the edge. Also, I found a lot of Kam Mickolio interest in the EL, which is understandable since he's such a power arm. He clearly has a lot of command issues and rough edges to iron out if you saw him in the big leagues at all, but he's got a shot to be an interesting middle reliever with his cross-body delivery and velocity. I guarantee that I'm the charter member of the Kam Mickolio fan club outside the states of Montana (where he's from) and Utah (he played at Utah Valley State). Very glad he made the big leagues.

I agree that Reimold should have gotten in there but in this league, its not terrible he didn't make it..I mean, Donald didn't either, so that says something...very deep in talent. A

Manuel seems to really like Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman.

I wonder how many teams can match up with those 3? 5 or 6?

[Stotle]

Uh oh...Waiting for an explosion here.

I agree that Reimold should have gotten in there but in this league, its not terrible he didn't make it..I mean, Donald didn't either, so that says something...very deep in talent. A

Yeah, definitely deep. Glad that I'm not alone in thinking Donald doesn't have ML SS necessarily stamped on him.

Manuel seems to really like Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman.

I wonder how many teams can match up with those 3? 5 or 6?

Of the top of my head TEX, SFN, TAM for sure. I might include ATL slightly behind BAL. Hmmm. That might be it.

[NCRaven]

He seems to feel that Bergesen could become a legitimate big league starter, which I'm glad to see. I think he often gets short shrift here for being a ground ball monster rather than a strike out king.

If Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Guthrie and Bergesen or Erbe are manning our rotation in 3 years, and Hernandez and Mickolio are solid late inning relievers, I'll consider this the best group of pitchers to come out of system since the mid-70's. Tillman and Mickolio may have come over from Seattle, but then McGregor and Tippy Martinez came from the Yankees, anyway.

[Big Mac]

Uh oh...Waiting for an explosion here.

Haha, me too.

There's nothing Manuel said about DH that isn't true.

[snatch311]

I haven't seen him pitch, and I'm not a scout, so it's hard to be too vocal in my disagreement.

BUT... He must really not rate well to scouts for him to lead the league in consecutive years in K's and still not even be looked at as a potential SETUP guy.

[Eight]

Haha, me too.

There's nothing Manuel said about DH that isn't true.

Maybe not. But I'm suspect of his particular analysis if only because he puts Berken and Bergesen ahead of Hernandez in terms of ML projection. Bergesen has six months on him, but Hernandez had the better season, and based off of what I've read, I'm not sure anyone would say Bergesen has "better stuff".

[sector7g]

Yeah, definitely deep. Glad that I'm not alone in thinking Donald doesn't have ML SS necessarily stamped on him.

Of the top of my head TEX, SFN, TAM for sure. I might include ATL slightly behind BAL. Hmmm. That might be it.

Hmm...Oakland?

[Stotle]

Hmm...Oakland?

I like OAK, but they don't have the same group of front-end guys. I see a lot of #3s. Cahill and Anderson are both good, but I take Holland/Felix, Matusz/Tillman, Alderson/Bumgarer, Price/one of Hellickson/McGee/Davis over them. Each of BAL/TAM/TEX/SFN has a third (and in some cases a forth) starter I could project to a #2. I don't think I see it in OAK.

[sector7g]

I like OAK, but they don't have the same group of front-end guys. I see a lot of #3s. Cahill and Anderson are both good, but I take Holland/Felix, Matusz/Tillman, Alderson/Bumgarer, Price/one of Hellickson/McGee/Davis over them. Each of BAL/TAM/TEX/SFN has a third (and in some cases a forth) starter I could project to a #2. I don't think I see it in OAK.

Interesting and fair enough. I'd have had Cahill, Anderson and Gonzalez right up there as a pitching trio to compare to anyone elses. Rodriguez and Inoa make it a great top five too. Not to mention Simmons and Mazzaro.

I guess they don't have a Price type guy at the top but I'd def swap our pitching prospects for theirs.