Easton Lucas vs. Griffin Conine

[HowAboutThat]

It’s definitely water under the bridge, but I am inclined to think that Toronto made a dumb trade. I don’t really think it’s relevant to compare the returns because the circumstances are different. I don’t think the guy we got back it’s going to be a superstar for us, I’m not even sure he’ll ever see the big team, but he was the best we could get at the time, and if we had kept him I’m pretty sure he would not have earned his pay nor brought back the same kind of return for us. Also if we had kept him, we would not have signed Iglesias, who is a far better all-around player.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

It’s definitely water under the bridge, but I am inclined to think that Toronto made a dumb trade. I don’t really think it’s relevant to compare the returns because the circumstances are different. I don’t think the guy we got back it’s going to be a superstar for us, I’m not even sure he’ll ever see the big team, but he was the best we could get at the time, and if we had kept him I’m pretty sure he would not have earned his pay nor brought back the same kind of return for us. Also if we had kept him, we would not have signed Iglesias, who is a far better all-around player.

I pretty much love this post. Good analysis!

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Huh? The Jays have to pay, what, a few mil for Villar this season as opposed to $8.2? 

That makes a huge difference in the return IMO. 

Yep.  Roll Tides point is true about games played but the money is a huge difference.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Also if we had kept him, we would not have signed Iglesias, who is a far better all-around player.

Very different players, and yet Iglesias has been worth 11.5 rWAR, Villar 11.1.    They’ve played a very similar number of games.   

What we’ve seen of Iglesias in his 20 games with us is not representative.    He’s not nearly the caliber of hitter than he’s looked like for us.    And his typical defense is actually better than we’ve seen, because he’s been dealing with leg issues all season.  

I think what’s definitely fair to say is that Iglesias is more your style of player — good defensively, consistent, makes the smart play.   Villar has way more offensive talent but makes more mental mistakes.   

 

[HowAboutThat]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Very different players, and yet Iglesias has been worth 11.5 rWAR, Villar 11.1.    They’ve played a very similar number of games.   

What we’ve seen of Iglesias in his 20 games with us is not representative.    He’s not nearly the caliber of hitter than he’s looked like for us.    And his typical defense is actually better than we’ve seen, because he’s been dealing with leg issues all season.  

I think what’s definitely fair to say is that Iglesias is more your style of player — good defensively, consistent, makes the smart play.   Villar has way more offensive talent but makes more mental mistakes.   

 

That’s all true. But if we had kept Villar we wouldn’t have signed Iglesias.

Iglesias is a much more reliable player, and I would rather have him even if he were hitting.220. Periodic brilliance is less desirable than consistent excellence. Iglesias’ absence probably cost us at least three games on defense alone, and the opposite can probably be said of Villar.

[luismatos4prez]

What was the name of that first baseman that we traded a bonus slot for that was like 24 years old in rookie ball and got released? It turned out the bonus slot trade was a PTBNL-type move, but posters here mocked DD a lot for that one.

Easton Lucas is the new that guy. Not a good return for a 4 WAR player. Elias seems like a competent trader, but he didn't do well with that one.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, luismatos4prez said:

What was the name of that first baseman that we traded a bonus slot for that was like 24 years old in rookie ball and got released? It turned out the bonus slot trade was a PTBNL-type move, but posters here mocked DD a lot for that one.

Easton Lucas is the new that guy. Not a good return for a 4 WAR player. Elias seems like a competent trader, but he didn't do well with that one.

You don't know Jack?

It was also an illegal move.  Dan is lucky the franchise didn't get punished.

[hoosiers]

I am fine with what ME did in reducing payroll and moving Villar.

IMO, the biggest issue in play here is less about $ and more about production. 

ME traded a 3.9 WAR, 109 OPS+ Villar for very little to avoid paying an arbitration salary.

The Jays just traded a high quality prospect for the 0.0 WAR, 90 OPS+ (granted, production after five weeks) Villar.  

Kudos to the Marlins for what they pulled off.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

6 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

I am fine with what ME did in reducing payroll and moving Villar.

IMO, the biggest issue in play here is less about $ and more about production. 

ME traded a 3.9 WAR, 109 OPS+ Villar for very little to avoid paying an arbitration salary.

The Jays just traded a high quality prospect for the 0.0 WAR, 90 OPS+ (granted, production after five weeks) Villar.  

Kudos to the Marlins for what they pulled off.  

I'm not sure 128 PA should change everything we know about the player to this point...

And state of the world was different when we traded. There weren't 16 teams making the playoffs, wasn't an expectant playoff team with a positional need, etc.

[DrungoHazewood]

23 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

I am fine with what ME did in reducing payroll and moving Villar.

IMO, the biggest issue in play here is less about $ and more about production. 

ME traded a 3.9 WAR, 109 OPS+ Villar for very little to avoid paying an arbitration salary.

The Jays just traded a high quality prospect for the 0.0 WAR, 90 OPS+ (granted, production after five weeks) Villar.  

Kudos to the Marlins for what they pulled off.  

Is Conine really a high quality prospect?  He struck out 36% of the time in low A ball.  When Ryan Mountcastle was in low A he was two years younger and struck out 19% of the time, and plate discipline is his biggest weakness.

[lovetoaster]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is Conine really a high quality prospect?  He struck out 36% of the time in low A ball.  When Ryan Mountcastle was in low A he was two years younger and struck out 19% of the time, and plate discipline is his biggest weakness.

I've been thinking the same thing. He has hit for power at Duke and in the low minors, but that's about it. Nothing else seems really that overwhelming, other than his strikeouts.  

[DrungoHazewood]

16 minutes ago, lovetoaster said:

I've been thinking the same thing. He has hit for power at Duke and in the low minors, but that's about it. Nothing else seems really that overwhelming, other than his strikeouts.  

I'd like to hear a scout's perspective, because I think it's highly unlikely that a guy who has Chris Davis' strikeout rate in low-A is going to make enough contact to do anything at the major league level.

When Davis was in low A he struck out 23% of the time, and he was a year younger than Conine who struck out 36%.  Mark Reynolds struck out 23% of the time in low A.  Ronald Acuna led the majors in Ks last year, when he was in the Sally League he was 18(!) and struck out just 28 times in 171 PAs.  Eugenio Suarez was 2nd, he struck out 19% of the time in low A at 20.

Conine is going to make Russell Branyan look like Hanser Alberto.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm fine with the Villar trade last year, it opened up the ability for us to sign Iglesias.  I liked Villar but I think we got a career-ish year out of him.  I didn't think he could replicate what he did last year, this year so I believe Elias traded him at the best time.

There are questions about Easton Lucas, there are questions about Griffin Conine.  Neither one are surefire prospects.  It's all good. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

41 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is Conine really a high quality prospect?  He struck out 36% of the time in low A ball.  When Ryan Mountcastle was in low A he was two years younger and struck out 19% of the time, and plate discipline is his biggest weakness.

Per Fangraphs (EL), he's the 20th best (of 32) prospects to trade hands for the 2020 deadline.

For comparison, they have Vavra at #2, Nevin at #10, and Smith at #16. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Per Fangraphs (EL), he's the 20th best (of 32) prospects to trade hands for the 2020 deadline.

For comparison, they have Vavra at #2, Nevin at #10, and Smith at #16. 

"huge power and scary strikeouts."

I wonder if there's anyone who ever cut their strikeout rate from low-A to the majors.  Conine almost has to, unless he's going to have a .430 BABIP.