Mountcastle rookie/prospect eligibility tracker

[Moose Milligan]

43 minutes ago, Philip said:

I don’t care where Akin ranks on the prospect lists. Those are all about potential. If he keeps pitching like he has been, we will see the potential being realized where it counts, and that’s the important thing.

...we were talking about Mountcastle.  

[HowAboutThat]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

...we were talking about Mountcastle.  

Oh, well the same applies to him, if he does his job I won’t care where he ranks on the prospect list. I would kind of like to see him be rookie eligible next year, but I’d also like to see him learn how to run down foul balls

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Mountcastle enters play today with 83 at-bats. There are 11 games left in the season so he needs to average fewer than 4.28 at-bats per game for the rest of the season.

It seems highly likely he will be able to manage this. He is averaging fewer than 4 at-bats a game. And between today's 7-inning double header and the new extra innings rule it seems fairly unlikely he will threaten 130 at-bats unless he stops walking entirely.

Stay tuned to this thread for daily updates!

In his previous 11 games (including three 7-inning jobs and one 10-inning game), Mountcastle had 43 PA and 38 AB.   Throw in one extra PA/AB for having one less doubleheader game in this next 11 and he’ll get 44 PA.    If he never drew a walk, had an HBP or a sac fly, he’d reach the 130 mark exactly.   My guess is he’ll have a couple of those events and fall short of 130 AB by just a few.

 

[Moose Milligan]

Behind a paywall, but here, Top MLB rookies of 2020:  https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29894934/top-mlb-rookies-2020-made-biggest-splash

 

Quote

 

6. LF Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles

I caved on my intention to use a 100-plate-appearance cutoff for position players when it came to Mountcastle, whose offensive numbers have been so eye-opening. Through Monday, he was the only rookie with at least 60 PAs to slug over .600, and he ranked fifth in fWAR and seventh in total bases among rookies despite ranking 21st in plate appearances. Despite a reputation for being a free swinger in the minors (4.3% walk rate last year, 4.5% career), he's at 9.2% thus far, though his 39.9% rate of swinging at pitches outside the zone probably won't support such a high rate over a larger sample. Likewise when it comes to his overall level of offensive production given his meager 86.0 mph average exit velocity, to say nothing of the questions about his eventual defensive home, though with Chris Davis back on the injured list, he deserves a long look at first base.

 

Wouldn't have figured an 86.0 average exit velocity.  

[eddie83]

So it’s possible a player could receive ROY votes this year and still be eligible next year....

MLB needs to say anyone who qualifies for rookie status next year is ineligible this year. 

Also I have been saying for years they need to extend the voting. Should have at least go from 3 to 5 places in the voting system. Would create more recognition for players. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Behind a paywall, but here, Top MLB rookies of 2020:  https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29894934/top-mlb-rookies-2020-made-biggest-splash

 

Wouldn't have figured an 86.0 average exit velocity.  

He hits his share of dink shots, a product of swinging at stuff out of the zone.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

MLB needs to say anyone who qualifies for rookie status next year is ineligible this year.

Why?  It impacts almost no one (Gregg Jeffries and... ?) and it would be cool to see someone like Mountcastle get votes in two straight years.

[Jagwar]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He hits his share of dink shots, a product of swinging at stuff out of the zone.

I'm ok with that if it means he gets on base and produces runs. I don't have any stat to back this up, but I think a few of his dink shots have resulted in RBIs. 

[DrungoHazewood]

39 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I'm ok with that if it means he gets on base and produces runs. I don't have any stat to back this up, but I think a few of his dink shots have resulted in RBIs. 

The follow on questions are: what is a normal performance on poorly hit balls, what is Mountcastle's performance, and is that repeatable or mostly luck?

[Chelsea_Phil]

I’m not sure that works either.  Like yesterday’s hit to tie the score at 1-1 was a soft flare into right field, by no means hard hit, but clearly well placed to take an outside pitch to right field.  If he does that all the time, I’m fine with that, but in that case his exit velocity will be poo poo.

Edited September 18, 2020 by Chelsea_Phil
Fix typo

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The follow on questions are: what is a normal performance on poorly hit balls, what is Mountcastle's performance, and is that repeatable or mostly luck?

I'm sure being quick up the line helps.

[Beef Supreme]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The follow on questions are: what is a normal performance on poorly hit balls, what is Mountcastle's performance, and is that repeatable or mostly luck?

Those dink shots accounted for 20% of Jeter's offensive production. Guess some players are consistently lucky.

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

In his previous 11 games (including three 7-inning jobs and one 10-inning game), Mountcastle had 43 PA and 38 AB.   Throw in one extra PA/AB for having one less doubleheader game in this next 11 and he’ll get 44 PA.    If he never drew a walk, had an HBP or a sac fly, he’d reach the 130 mark exactly.   My guess is he’ll have a couple of those events and fall short of 130 AB by just a few.

 

I can see the Orioles giving him a day off to make sure he doesn't hit it as well. Might as well give him an opportunity to be a rookie of the year next year, unless the Hays situation this year changed Elias' mind on doing that.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The follow on questions are: what is a normal performance on poorly hit balls, what is Mountcastle's performance, and is that repeatable or mostly luck?

Sometimes strong guys like Mountcastle will end up with a dink single vs a pop out because they are able to muscle the ball into a hit. Now is it a repeatable skill? That's a good question.

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Behind a paywall, but here, Top MLB rookies of 2020:  https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29894934/top-mlb-rookies-2020-made-biggest-splash

 

Wouldn't have figured an 86.0 average exit velocity.  

He's had a lot of soft contact that has brought down that avg exit velocity. He's been a little lucky I guess when you look that his actual BA, SLG, wOBA and wOBACON have all being higher than his expected versions. 

His 76.7 percentile spring speed has helped him out as well sometimes. More importantly though, his 8.8% barrel rate and 41.8% hard hit% are over the MLB averages of 6.4% and 34.8%, and I think that's more important than average exit velocity. 

His weak % 5.9 (3.4 MLB avg) and Flare/burner% 27.9 (24.3%) are more than MLB avg, so it seems like he hits the ball really hard or flares it, with few inbetween.