Guthrie for Hardy

[NewMarketSean]

With the horrendous pitching we've got, and the amount of years Guts is under control, I think this would be a mistake. I know Hardy is a mile better than Greene, but Greene could be had for cheap and could bounce back. And if he doesn't, then it's only for a year.

[wickedwitch]

Guthrie is a legitimate ace. Without him, we have as many of those as we do good SS.

[33rdst]

We need pitching more than we need the offense. Our offense was more than adequate this year and I believe with the maturation of Jones and Montanez, the elevation of Wieters and the increased American League tenure of Scott our offense will improve over this year. A highly productive shortstop would be nice but it is not a necessity IMO. If we can a acquire a major league average hitter at shortstop, who plays excellent defense that will be enough for me. Starting pitching is where the Orioles need to invest the most resources this winter. Removing Guthrie weakens them even more.

[Sports Guy]

This is where you lose me. I do not think us adding to Guthrie should be acceptible to the O's. I do think that straight up would have to be given serious consideration.

El Gordo said we would need to add a MiL pitcher to Guthrie.

[xKHx]

I said no because I feel like this is just treading water for us. We give up our best pitcher for one guy and a low level prospect that is eligible to hit the market in 2 years. We don’t improve because of the talent level behind Guthrie. The talent level behind Hardy is Castro. I think if we find a league average shortstop we would greater improve just by sheer offence upgrade. We trade our ace under control for 4 years for just a shortstop under control for 2 I think we tread water instead of coming out on top. Now maybe next year if Liz, Olson, Berg, Penn, and others come on strong and we look better than we do now at pitching I would pull the trigger of something to the same effect. Our pitching is in desire straights right now though.

[Sports Guy]

No.

Sorry SG, I know we need a SS....but we need pitching more.

What do we need more for the long term?

What is our strength in? What is our weakness?

[Sports Guy]

I voted no. I know you're saying it's a "move for the future," but that partially hinges on us extending Hardy. Since you're basically saying 2009 doesn't matter (at least in this scenario), throw that year out and you're then trading 3 years of Guthrie for 1 year of Hardy. If Hardy walks, sure we get prospects, but we then have to wait for them develop. I think I'd rather sign a stopgap for 2 years and court Hardy in free agency. I'd say our chances at signing him as a FA aren't any worse than our chances at extending him.

Let's assume that we can sign hardy for what i said...A deal of 4 years for around 40 million...5th year option.

So, if we know we can extend him, does it change your mind?

[billyc123]

IMO, this is a complete no-brainer. Do the trade if it's there.

[wildbillhiccup]

Trading Guthrie for Hardy would solve one problem and create another one. As painful as it has been to watch the O's run out retread after retread at SS the pitching staff has been an even bigger problem. IMO we're going to have to solve our SS problem via free agency, because we don't have the depth or luxury of trading young talent. The only way this works is if they agree to take someone like Huff, Mora, Scott, or Sherrill off our hands.

[Sanfran327]

I'd rather trade a package that started with Guthrie+Sherrill and others for Holiday with a 5+ year extension. I'd give Holiday 6/110 without blinking.

[Sports Guy]

I would make this trade assuming that two things had occurred prior to the trade:

1. Hardy agreed in principle to an extension through at least 2012
2. The Orioles had already signed both an ace type (Burnett would suffice) and a solid #3/4 starter (Derek Lowe or Jon Garland would suffice)

Since I don't expect these things to occur, I'd say no at this point.

I will say that I'm less bullish on Guthrie's long term future than most of you in this thread (with the obvious exception of SG who believes Guthrie is a reliever at best ). He is a smallish guy for a ML starter (I stood next to him in ST) with a high effort delivery who pitches as a power pitcher (his fastball is by far his most important pitch) and got started fairly late (due to the Mormon mission). I'd be surprised if Guthrie has a long MLB career at a high level. He might make it to cash in big in free agency in four years, but I'd be surprised. I think he'll either gets seriously hurt OR lose 3-5 mph on his fastball by 2011 unless he has superhuman connective tissue. If we can get someone to pay top dollar for him, we should tell him "thanks for everything, good luck to you" and take it.

Please don't think this means I'm not a fan. I love the guy and hope he proves me wrong. I'm just analyzing his chances for a long term career as a #2 starter.

My 2 cents

I agree with a lot of this...Part of my thinking is, will Guthrie be at this level in 2-3 years?

I am not sure if he will or not but just based on historical trends, you would have to assume that he won't be as good as he is now.

[Stotle]

Yeah, I would do it. I disgree BAL would need to add anything significant to get this done. Guthrie could be a #1 in the NL Central (not a #1 as in ace, but he could throw at the top of a rotation in that league/division with #2 stuff). If it were to cost much more that Guthrie, I'd punt on having a top tier SS and look to develop one and sign a stop gap for two more seasons.

[Sports Guy]

I'd rather trade a package that started with Guthrie+Sherrill and others for Holiday with a 5+ year extension. I'd give Holiday 6/110 without blinking.

He wanted a contract like MCab got and that is exactly what you would have to give him to sign here.

Plus, look at his home/road splits.

[Sanfran327]

Yeah, I would do it. I disgree BAL would need to add anything significant to get this done. Guthrie could be a #1 in the NL Central (not a #1 as in ace, but he could throw at the top of a rotation in that league/division with #2 stuff). If it were to cost much more that Guthrie, I'd punt on having a top tier SS and look to develop one and sign a stop gap for two more seasons.

Are you saying that you think Guthrie is as good at the top of the rotation as Sabathia or Sheets, Zambrano, Dempster, Harden or Lilly, Carpenter, or Oswalt? That's a pretty good division of pitchers right there... The only one that Guts is truly better than is Lilly, and that's not even definite.

[Sanfran327]

He wanted a contract like MCab got and that is exactly what you would have to give him to sign here.

Plus, look at his home/road splits.

I'd give him that too... Honestly, I thougth Miguel was in line to get MUCH more than what he got. He's a special hitter who's going to settle into a nice DH career for a looong time. Holiday is a good all around player who can also steal a handful of bases for you. Holiday and a defense-first SS is better than Hardy and a so-so situation in LF, IMO.

Would Guts, Sherrill, and Reimold get him here do you think??