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#13 2020 Prospect: Terrin Vavra - 2B/UTL

Tony-OH

By Tony-OH
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hoosiers
hoosiers

I will plant the Adam Hall flag here - probably on my own island - well as a comp to Vavra - not necessarily at 13. Both Hall and Vavra played in the South Atlantic League last year.  Vavra

Tony-OH
Tony-OH

I think Hall is a similar prospect as Vavra overall and maybe with a minor league season this year he would be ahead of him. There is just a lot of unknowns with the new guys including guys like Vavra

ChosenOne21
ChosenOne21

I doubt you can find many farm systems in MLB whose 13th prospect's likely outcome is MLB regular

Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Conceding our own hisory with Mountcastle,  did I not read that Vavra has played more games at SS than 2B so far as a professional?  Curious for a player with a well below average arm.  Sounds a little bit like Cedric Mullins.  Tony, you have him batting LH in the profile.  I could have sworn the draft video was of a RH hitter.

 

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jamalshw All-Star

jamalshw

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I would think the poor arm won't factor in that regularly at 2B where it would prevent him from being an everyday option there, particularly if the bat plays.

Other than throws home or to third, where would a poor arm as a 2B come into play? The answer may be during large shifts, but could you leave him in the regular 2B spot and slide the SS or 3B into shallow RF for the exaggerated shifts? The main issue then would be shifts on right-handed hitters...

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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Double plays is where the poor arm comes in.

This is an interesting part of the list every year because it's where Tony has to mix in 40-45 FV guys with really young guys with huge risk. I'm sure there's a system, but I definitely don't have one. Lol.

As for Vavra and even Diaz, it's worth noting that there's some upside there as the ceiling is a 50 FV guy. Having a few guys in the upper minors with a 50 FV is a good thing. They won't all pan out, but if one or two of these types of guys pans out to that 50 FV then you have a real asset on your hands. 

The same is true with pitchers, where we have a lot of guys who kind of fit a Vavra-like profile. Means was one of them, and look what happened. There's value here for sure.

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hoosiers Hangout Grand Counsel

hoosiers

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I will plant the Adam Hall flag here - probably on my own island - well as a comp to Vavra - not necessarily at 13.

Both Hall and Vavra played in the South Atlantic League last year. 

Vavra had extreme home away splits and by extreme I mean Home 400/484/640/1124 and AWAY 224/320/316/636.

Hall's overall numbers trail Vavra due to that extreme split, but in (IMO) the most legitimate comp between the two - Hall outhit Vavra on the road with a respectable 291/360/369/729.  League average numbers for the South Atlantic League last year were 239/316/362/677 which Vavra's road numbers trail.  Vavra's road numbers also trailed those of the promoted 2019 draft picks Johnny Rizer and Toby Welk in the Sally League in 2019 - prospects I don't think we will see anywhere near here.

As Tony mentioned, included in Vavra's numbers are superior BB/K numbers which were 62/62 in 2019 with similar home/away splits.  Hall did walk in about 9% of his PAs, but struck out much more often in 117 times - nearly a quarter of his PAs.

I believe Hall has a better middle infield defensive profile with a chance, albeit a low one, to stick at SS but capable of playing a competent major league 2B IMO.  

A final important factor to me is that Hall is two years younger than Vavra and played about one year younger than the Sally League average in 2019 while Vavra was a year older than league average.

Tony has the inside word here and the Os had to like something in Vavra to take him in trade so I will prepare in advance to eat future crow when I say I prefer Hall to Vavra.

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HowAboutThat Hangout Grand Counsel

HowAboutThat

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2 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Or a higher ceiling but with a lot of risk

Yeah, there’s that as well. I’m just wondering if it says some thing about our system that the 13th prospect has such a mediocre ceiling. When we traded for him everybody seemed quite enthusiastic but This report is less so.

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ChosenOne21 Major Leaguer Rising Star

ChosenOne21

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1 minute ago, Philip said:

Yeah, there’s that as well. I’m just wondering if it says some thing about our system that the 13th prospect has such a mediocre ceiling. When we traded for him everybody seemed quite enthusiastic but This report is less so.

I doubt you can find many farm systems in MLB whose 13th prospect's likely outcome is MLB regular

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HowAboutThat Hangout Grand Counsel

HowAboutThat

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17 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I doubt you can find many farm systems in MLB whose 13th prospect's likely outcome is MLB regular

That’s what I was wondering. A while ago, I checked about a dozen farm systems to see where the final 50 FV player was.  I don’t remember where the Orioles were exactly,  high single digits like eight or nine or something, and I do remember that compared well with the other systems I checked.

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