Jump to content

#13 2020 Prospect: Terrin Vavra - 2B/UTL

Tony-OH

By Tony-OH
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 30
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

hoosiers
hoosiers

I will plant the Adam Hall flag here - probably on my own island - well as a comp to Vavra - not necessarily at 13. Both Hall and Vavra played in the South Atlantic League last year.  Vavra

Tony-OH
Tony-OH

I think Hall is a similar prospect as Vavra overall and maybe with a minor league season this year he would be ahead of him. There is just a lot of unknowns with the new guys including guys like Vavra

ChosenOne21
ChosenOne21

I doubt you can find many farm systems in MLB whose 13th prospect's likely outcome is MLB regular

Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

Posted
  • Author
Posted
2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Conceding our own hisory with Mountcastle,  did I not read that Vavra has played more games at SS than 2B so far as a professional?  Curious for a player with a well below average arm.  Sounds a little bit like Cedric Mullins.  Tony, you have him batting LH in the profile.  I could have sworn the draft video was of a RH hitter.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jamalshw All-Star

jamalshw

Posted
Posted

I would think the poor arm won't factor in that regularly at 2B where it would prevent him from being an everyday option there, particularly if the bat plays.

Other than throws home or to third, where would a poor arm as a 2B come into play? The answer may be during large shifts, but could you leave him in the regular 2B spot and slide the SS or 3B into shallow RF for the exaggerated shifts? The main issue then would be shifts on right-handed hitters...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

Posted
Posted

Double plays is where the poor arm comes in.

This is an interesting part of the list every year because it's where Tony has to mix in 40-45 FV guys with really young guys with huge risk. I'm sure there's a system, but I definitely don't have one. Lol.

As for Vavra and even Diaz, it's worth noting that there's some upside there as the ceiling is a 50 FV guy. Having a few guys in the upper minors with a 50 FV is a good thing. They won't all pan out, but if one or two of these types of guys pans out to that 50 FV then you have a real asset on your hands. 

The same is true with pitchers, where we have a lot of guys who kind of fit a Vavra-like profile. Means was one of them, and look what happened. There's value here for sure.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
hoosiers Hangout Grand Counsel

hoosiers

Posted
Posted

I will plant the Adam Hall flag here - probably on my own island - well as a comp to Vavra - not necessarily at 13.

Both Hall and Vavra played in the South Atlantic League last year. 

Vavra had extreme home away splits and by extreme I mean Home 400/484/640/1124 and AWAY 224/320/316/636.

Hall's overall numbers trail Vavra due to that extreme split, but in (IMO) the most legitimate comp between the two - Hall outhit Vavra on the road with a respectable 291/360/369/729.  League average numbers for the South Atlantic League last year were 239/316/362/677 which Vavra's road numbers trail.  Vavra's road numbers also trailed those of the promoted 2019 draft picks Johnny Rizer and Toby Welk in the Sally League in 2019 - prospects I don't think we will see anywhere near here.

As Tony mentioned, included in Vavra's numbers are superior BB/K numbers which were 62/62 in 2019 with similar home/away splits.  Hall did walk in about 9% of his PAs, but struck out much more often in 117 times - nearly a quarter of his PAs.

I believe Hall has a better middle infield defensive profile with a chance, albeit a low one, to stick at SS but capable of playing a competent major league 2B IMO.  

A final important factor to me is that Hall is two years younger than Vavra and played about one year younger than the Sally League average in 2019 while Vavra was a year older than league average.

Tony has the inside word here and the Os had to like something in Vavra to take him in trade so I will prepare in advance to eat future crow when I say I prefer Hall to Vavra.

  • Upvote 3
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Philip Hangout Grand Counsel

Philip

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Or a higher ceiling but with a lot of risk

Yeah, there’s that as well. I’m just wondering if it says some thing about our system that the 13th prospect has such a mediocre ceiling. When we traded for him everybody seemed quite enthusiastic but This report is less so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ChosenOne21 Major Leaguer

ChosenOne21

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Philip said:

Yeah, there’s that as well. I’m just wondering if it says some thing about our system that the 13th prospect has such a mediocre ceiling. When we traded for him everybody seemed quite enthusiastic but This report is less so.

I doubt you can find many farm systems in MLB whose 13th prospect's likely outcome is MLB regular

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Philip Hangout Grand Counsel

Philip

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I doubt you can find many farm systems in MLB whose 13th prospect's likely outcome is MLB regular

That’s what I was wondering. A while ago, I checked about a dozen farm systems to see where the final 50 FV player was.  I don’t remember where the Orioles were exactly,  high single digits like eight or nine or something, and I do remember that compared well with the other systems I checked.

Edited by Philip
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Posts

    • Bemorewins
      The Reds have quietly assembled a great rotation

      By Bemorewins · Posted

      I expect to win against the Orioles to win against any and all opponents. We have the better team against anyone and our rotation is not chopped liver. Reds have some good young starting pitching no doubt. But their lineup leaves a lot to be desired.
    • forphase1
      2024 Ongoing Lineup Thread

      By forphase1 · Posted

      Yeah, not my favorite lineup as Santander is too high based on his performance at this time. don't like McKenna starting, especially at the same time as Urias in also in the lineup.  Just too many holes in this lineup that way, not that Mullins has been tearing it up, but I trust him more than McKenna for sure, even with a lefty out there.   But like last time when I said such a thing, watch us score 8-9 runs.  🙂   
    • Bemorewins
      2024 Ongoing Lineup Thread

      By Bemorewins · Posted

      Mullins has been struggling and there is a lefty on the mound today.
    • forphase1
      Draft Targets 2 Months Out

      By forphase1 · Posted

      Oh sure, I'm very confident in Elias picking this low as I feel they do a good job of identifying what they like,  and it doesn't have to be just the top guys.  I won't be surprised at all if whomever they take ends up being better than expected for the slot they are picked in the end.   But it's just harder for me to keep up as the guy they draft is very unlikely to be someone I know much about.   When we are picking top 2-5 you really only needed to study 4 to 7 guys or so to be fairly certain you knew about who our guy would be.   Now there are probably 30ish guys who COULD go at number 22.  The top 10 will likely be gone and the guys after #40 or so won't be likely, but anyone in the 11 to 40ish range could be the pick of some fall or rise on our boards.  I'll be watching it closely on draft day,  but until then it's just too speculative to really dive into IMO. I do wonder how much harder it is to prepare for this kind of a draft as an organization.   When you are picking top 5, you can really narrow the focus down on 7-8 guys and really dive in deep to decide your board and who you take if available.  With being in the low 20s, you need to research many,  many more guys but probably not in nearly the depth you did while picking higher. 
    • dystopia
      2024 Ongoing Lineup Thread

      By dystopia · Posted

      McKenna in center… ugh. 
    • dystopia
      6th straight game with 2 or fewer runs allowed

      By dystopia · Posted

      There was a fair amount. A lot of posts said Burnes was just a replacement for Bradish who was destined for TJS, that we needed to sign Montgomery, and when we didn’t there was quite a bit of frustration. I also wanted Montgomery, but we seem to be doing just fine without him. 
    • WillyM
      Sunday, May 5 - Orioles at Reds

      By WillyM · Posted

      It's no secret that Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins are off to slow starts, one having a batting average of .206 and OPS of .665, the other with BA of .200 and OPS of .668. But if you think the Orioles are the only team with highly-regarded outfielders having their troubles, I give you the Rays and Randy Arozarena. Arozarena has batted twice so far today, striking out with two runners on base each time.  He is batting .138 with an OPS of .484.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...