Where do our SS prospects start next year?

[ChuckS]

This is assuming we have something resembling a normal minor league season. Here are my guesses:

Norfolk: Terrin Vavra

Bowie: Adam Hall

Frederick: Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg - Rotating between SS and 3B

Delmarva: Darrel Hernaiz 

Am I missing anyone? I don’t consider guys like Grenier to still be prospects so did not include him. Vavra could certainly start at Bowie and play more 2B but I’m expecting for some levels to get skipped considering the lost season and need to fit two years worth of draft picks into the system. 

[panick]

I just read the scouting report about Vavra. It says his weak arm is a problem when it comes to turning double plays as a second baseman. It seems like having him play shortstop will be as big of a waste of time as it was for Mountcastle.

[Chuck A]

And considering we dont know if Frederick is being contracted or not.  Losing  an affiliate will hurt.

[ChuckS]

8 hours ago, panick said:

I just read the scouting report about Vavra. It says his weak arm is a problem when it comes to turning double plays as a second baseman. It seems like having him play shortstop will be as big of a waste of time as it was for Mountcastle.

If he's going to be a utility player at the major league level we may have to suffer through some below average SS play from him.

We certainly did some of that this year with Valaika and Velasquez also had what I would call a below average arm even though his glove work was solid. 

[Tony-OH]

On 10/21/2020 at 11:42 AM, Chuck A said:

And considering we dont know if Frederick is being contracted or not.  Losing  an affiliate will hurt.

The Orioles won't lose an affiliate. If Frederick or Delmarva was contracted Aberdeen would just be added. They will still have a Low-A, High-A, AA, and AAA teams. Only the New York Penn League was scheduled to go under which means they will just move one franchise to Aberdeen.

[ChuckS]

I forgot Servideo. I agree, he would likely be ticketed for Delmarva. 

[connja]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Revised.

 

Norfolk  SS - McCoy   2B Bannon

Bowie    SS - Graffanino - 2B Cullen

High A  -   3B Welk  SS Henderson - 2B Hall  

Low A  -    3B Ortiz  SS Westburg  2B  Servideo

Gulf Coast   SS Placencia  2B  Hernaiz

 

 

Where is Veria, Greiner?

[connja]

Middle Infield Prospects (MLB Top 30)

Henderson (6)

Westburg (7)

Vavra (13)

Hall (16)

Servido (20)

Bannon (25)

Graffiano (30)

Herniaz (nr/OH 19)

McCoy (NR)

Grenier (NR)

Missing anyone?

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I also couldn't find a spot for Hernaiz who seems like he should be SS or 2B in Low A.

Yeah - I think on your list, for the coveted Top 6 MI first-string slots on the full season teams, those AA ex-Braves are too flimsy to deprive Hernaiz (and Vavra too, assuming he doesn't get majority OF reps for his Zobrist training).

That then also gives the fun of who between Gunnar and Westburg gets the Advance to Boardwalk, (er, Bowie) chance card, with Delmarva Hernaiz bubbling everyone up.

[Chuck A]

What a nice problem to have, no?  I think there has to be a lot of rotating 3 guys through 2 positions going on most of the season (whatever that may be).  Naturally there should be more of Henderson, Westburg, Servideo getting daily playing time more so than the Grenier, Hall, Cullen's of the prospects.  There will be injuries and slumps to go through also (again for whatever the season will actually be).  And the adding experience at new positions (Hall to CF, etc). 

I think it is kind of interesting that there are now so many MI prospects that they are rotating them to the OF where there are also a lot of prospects (makes me wonder where Kerstad will start - high A perhaps since he is a college bat, supposed to be close to ML ready, with a call-up to AA mid-season).  Sounds like another thread to start ...

[connja]

sad but i'm more excited for the minor league season than the ML.  I also live in NJ and very escited that the Yankees moved there AA team to Somerset, a mere 30 minutes from me!

[Jammer7]

AAA: Nevin 1B, Bannon 2B, R. Martin SS

AA: Cullen 1B/3B, Vavra 2B, Grenier SS

A+: Daschbach 1B, A. Hall 2B, J. Ortiz SS, Welk 3B, Graffanino UT

A-: Servideo 2B, Gunnar Henderson SS, Westburg 3B, Hernaiz UT

The most important thing for what I read into Elias’ movements of prospects has been to get legitimate time at each level. Well, that is going to be a challenge for him now to do that. With no minor league season in 2020, how much does roughly two months of alternate camp experience truly benefit a guy like Gunnar Henderson? I still think a HS guy like Henderson goes to Delmarva to start, and then we’ll see.

I think Martin could still benefit from time in AAA, at least a few months. 

I see Westburg at 3B, and I think he is moved there sooner than later. He and Henderson could move fast up the ladder and be in AA by season’s end. 

Joey Ortiz and Cadyn Grenier are not done by any means. Glove-first guys, sure. But to put them in a UT role at this point is premature a bit. One of the interviews after Fall Instructs had a player commenting about Joey Ortiz looking very improved with the bat. I want to say it was on a MASN podcast. 

AJ Graffanino has no minor league at bats above low A-ball, and none since 2018. I saw him a bit in college, and I think he could hit. But Frederick seems a good place to start and let him build some at bats in a UT role. That may be his ultimate profile anyway. 

Terrin Vavra spent all of 2019 in low A. I could see him in AA at 2B, maybe some time in CF. 

Cullen may not be a legitimate middle infielder, but it looks like he may be able to hit. He’s 5-10, but maybe a move to 3B, some time at 1B or some corner OF time to build a UT profile. Tony’s comparison to Matt Stairs I thought was interesting. 

[Jammer7]

10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Good stuff, Jammer.  However,  a few nitpicks.  Westburg sounds like he has a legit chance to stay at SS.  I say no way they move him to 3B this quickly. I bet he gets the great majority of starts at SS at whichever level he plays.

I read the posters comments on Ortiz but haven't seen anything from the O's organization.   The fact is that he showed even less power than Graffanino at a level below.  I would say their draft pedigree is similar based on reports as opposed to round.  Hard to believe Ortiz is the one who skips a level.  I hope the poster is right about Ortiz but he think he gets assigned to low A to start.

Of course, sometimes assignments are hard to figure.  Grenier certainly didn't do anything at Frederick to earn k a promotion to Bowie but maybe they'd rather stick him there over being aggressive with Graffanino, Hall, or Henderson.

We’ll see about Westburg. You may be right. After watching him for a while now, his frame and body type, I think he’s best suited for 3B. He is going to put on more muscle and weight. They could wait some, but all of those guys cannot play SS. I suppose they could move them around some, and split time in different positions. We’ll see. It may take a while to learn 3B, and that is why I would do it now. 

I am looking to find the interview of a player at instructs who said it in an interview. I’ll post it when I find it. The player just said he was amazed how good Ortiz looked. He asked what he did to improve. Ortiz told him he just hit off a tee. lol

My thoughts on Ortiz and Grenier moving up is based on a few things. I want to see the top guys get the development they need to be successful. Ortiz and Grenier are not the top rated players, so they are more or less filling gaps to some extent. These experienced college guys are known to be excellent defensively, and they are only moving up one level from 2018. Well, Ortiz is really two levels up from Aberdeen to Frederick, but he should be able to handle high A-ball. It would have been their natural advancement at this time if not for COVID. Their gloves should carry them anyway, regardless how they hit. 

Graffanino just hasn’t played since 2018. He was very difficult to place for me anywhere else in the beginning of the season. 

They will sort this out during the Spring, and I’ll probably be wrong on several. Just my guess. Every organization is going to have calls like this to some extent. So it may not be crazy to move people up without the at bats/experience of certain lower levels who should be at the level under normal circumstances. 

[wildcard]

I think Elias will want Westburg to get experience at both 3B and SS.  

[ChuckS]

I see a rotation between SS-3B-2B for all of these prospects.  No need to pigeon hole a potential SS into 3B or 2B so early in their development before seeing what they can actually do on the field.  Some of these guys will end up being utility players at the ML level where they need to play multiple positions anyway. 

A+ and A- will likely be very crowded to start the year until things settle and we start seeing some promotions.