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#17 2020 Prospect: Alex Wells - LHP

Tony-OH

By Tony-OH
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Can’t complain about sticking with Wells-Rom.    I voted for Rom-Smith before knowing that the main reason Wells didn’t pitch at the alternate site was the logistical problems with bringing him back from Australia.   

I’ve always been a big Wells fan and was really happy with his performance at Bowie in 2019.   Hopefully 2021 will be a year in which he proves his stuff plays in AAA and earns a call-up to the majors.    I’ve always thought of him as a LH Zach Davies, and Davies has shown that a crafty pitcher can still succeed even if his FB averages 88-89 mph.   

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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Can't argue with this guy's production. That said, I'd ding him more on velocity than his production would suggest. I just feel like he'll have to be great just to be good, and I really question whether he'll stick. He wouldn't be in my personal top 25 most likely, but I do understand why he's here.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Can’t complain about sticking with Wells-Rom.    I voted for Rom-Smith before knowing that the main reason Wells didn’t pitch at the alternate site was the logistical problems with bringing him back from Australia.   

I’ve always been a big Wells fan and was really happy with his performance at Bowie in 2019.   Hopefully 2021 will be a year in which he proves his stuff plays in AAA and earns a call-up to the majors.    I’ve always thought of him as a LH Zach Davies, and Davies has shown that a crafty pitcher can still succeed even if his FB averages 88-89 mph.   

A decent comp for Wells could be Tommy Milone.. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tommy-milone-543548?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Wells doesn't have the changeup that Milone has, but I think his breaking ball is better. 

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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Just now, Tony-OH said:

A decent comp for Wells could be Tommy Milone.. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/tommy-milone-543548?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Wells doesn't have the changeup that Milone has, but I think his breaking ball is better. 

I feel like a plus change is a must without good velocity. The breaking ball has a different shape, so it's less likely to screw up timing the way a change does. 

Just my theory/2 cents. 

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I feel like a plus change is a must without good velocity. The breaking ball has a different shape, so it's less likely to screw up timing the way a change does. 

Just my theory/2 cents. 

Would I prefer a plus change to the curve, perhaps, but I will say that although Well's change is a little to firm and lack great depth, for some reason batters struggle with the pitch from what I've seen. I was really looking forward to seeing him in AAA where the cameras are much better for assessing pitches.

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I feel like a plus change is a must without good velocity. The breaking ball has a different shape, so it's less likely to screw up timing the way a change does. 

I think at higher velocity still change ahead of breaking ball for most pitchers that want to be more than someone who just airs it out a couple innings at a time.

One of the confirmation bias (for me) anecdotes I got in this respect this month was Ian Anderson.  One of his starts the announcers gave the regular yarn about how as a prep kid he dominated fastball/curve.  The story ran as soon as the Braves got him - it was...here's the change we need you to develop.

Four years and a few months later he deploys 48% FB, 31% CH, 21% CU, and now after four years of pro schooling (non-NCAA flavor) he is where he is.

Maybe Tyler Glasnow can do it 150+ with just Fast and Break, but he's also like the Michael Oher of pitching humans.

That our big Texas kid has some of the glowing changeup reports is exciting stuff, and maybe gives a tool to outplay Tyler Glasnow sometime in the hopefully not too distant future.

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