Orioles make several moves

[DrungoHazewood]

42 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Martin hit for a 581 OPS straight out of AA at 24 years old.

As Frobby and Can_of_corn said, that's not remarkable.  On average a 24-year-old is probably 80-90% as good as he'll ever be.  There is some accounting for circumstances, and perhaps Martin gets a bit of a break for being a Rule 5er, and missing time for COVID.  But he turns 26 just before Christmas. 

His peers are Robert Andino, Manny Alexander, Billy Hunter, Luis Hernandez, Curtis Goodwin.  I'd be happy if he had Andino or Alexander's career.

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It would be unusual for a someone with a .581 MLB OPS and negative fielding metrics at the age of 26 to become a good player.  But I guess we'll see.

Yeah, I gotcha. This coaching staff is very effective, but I am certainly not expecting miracles. Martin searched for hitting mechanics throughout the entire season. Now and then, there are guys with significant upside who make such gains. The organization was very impressed with his improvements, we’ll see.

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

As Frobby and Can_of_corn said, that's not remarkable.  On average a 24-year-old is probably 80-90% as good as he'll ever be.  There is some accounting for circumstances, and perhaps Martin gets a bit of a break for being a Rule 5er, and missing time for COVID.  But he turns 26 just before Christmas. 

His peers are Robert Andino, Manny Alexander, Billy Hunter, Luis Hernandez, Curtis Goodwin.  I'd be happy if he had Andino or Alexander's career.

I think GMs will make allowance in their evaluate for age for many players for losing a year to COVID.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

I think GMs will make allowance in their evaluate  of age for many players for losing a year to COVID.

The virus has done many things but stopping the passage of time isn't one of them.

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure, you can keep him but it’s unlikely he would get claimed.

There are certainly other players I cut before him but it’s highly unlikely he ever becomes anything.

You may end up being right on this. The odds are on your side. But he is going to get an opportunity in Baltimore because of his athleticism and his apparent work ethic. His speed and ability to play in the middle infield, along with the obvious strength he added before 2020 and much more explosive swing mechanics, are why I believe he would be claimed.
 

He may end up being a guy who plays a UT role. I am curious how he would do in CF with that speed and solid above average arm. He’s a known quantity who, if nothing else, provides depth at SS in case Iglesias battles injuries again. I’m not saying he will be an all star, but I would not rule out his being an everyday player on a non-competitive team like the Orioles. 

He is also cheap, pre-arbitration. He is not blocked by anyone long term at this point, nor is he blocking anyone. Why not hold what you have as long as there is apparent upside?

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

24 is young enough to still have time to improve.

In 2019 Martin was not a finished product.   He needed to improve which is why Elias said he would start at AAA last year.  And probably to begin this season.   

I do think Martin has time to improve.    I’m not writing him off completely.    But let’s understand that -1.3 rWAR, .581 OPS in 309 PA, 120 games requires a lot of improvement.   The average shortstop had a .762 OPS last year, .744 this year (per Fangraphs; BB-ref says .772/.748).   I don’t see Martin as a guy who will ever be capable of that.  His path is to be a .700ish hitter with better than average defense.   If the defense isn’t better than average, .700ish OPS doesn’t cut it.   

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do think Martin has time to improve.    I’m not writing him off completely.    But let’s understand that -1.3 rWAR, .581 OPS in 309 PA, 120 games requires a lot of improvement.   The average shortstop had a .762 OPS last year, .744 this year (per Fangraphs; BB-ref says .772/.748).   I don’t see Martin as a guy who will ever be capable of that.  His path is to be a .700ish hitter with better than average defense.   If the defense isn’t better than average, .700ish OPS doesn’t cut it.   

I’d go with the 25 year old Korean player.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Iglesias has his option picked up.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I’d go with the 25 year old Korean player.

He hit almost exactly as well as Hyun Soo Kim did this past season.  Kim's final MLB OPS is .719.

I guess that's quite a bit better than Martin, so far.

[Roll Tide]

12 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He hit almost exactly as well as Hyun Soo Kim did this past season.  Kim's final MLB OPS is .719.

I guess that's quite a bit better than Martin, so far.

Honestly, I think he’d be a good place to take a chance for the Orioles. Only 25, we really don’t have a SS that’s close and none of the 3 IF positions are set with any certainty. It would be a bold move for the Orioles at this point.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Honestly, I think he’d be a good place to take a chance for the Orioles. Only 25, we really don’t have a SS that’s close and none of the 3 IF positions are set with any certainty. It would be a bold move for the Orioles at this point.

Zips has him as an .820 OPS guy, roughly 120 OPS+.  The last three years in Korea his OPS has been something like .875.  So that's only losing 50 points in translation.  I think that's very aggressive, very optimistic.  And I doubt Zips has some magic formula that knows Kim has specific attributes that will translate better.

- Dae-ho Lee played 2016 for the Mariners and had a .740 OPS.  His prior few years in Korea had a high .800s.  So he lost 150 points.
- Hyun-soo Kim's three years before coming to Baltimore were .979, .884, .852, and he had a .719.  So he lost something like 200 points of OPS.
- Byung Ho Park had over 1.000 OPS each of the three years prior to coming to America. Had a .684 here, so he lost over 300 points.
- Jae-gyun Hwang had a .964, .870, .864, then went to the SF Giants where he went 8-for-52, got sent to the PCL where he had a .785.

Ha-Seong Kim is younger, but he's coming off three years of .926, .880, .832.  To me he looks like a .675-725 OPS player, with maybe a little growth potential, but also some risk that he won't hit enough to play at all.  And I don't know if he's really a shortstop, since the last two years he's started to play quite a bit of third in a lower-quality league.

The Orioles need to approach this as if they're acquiring a guy who might have a .700 OPS and have to play third base, with some upside beyond that.  So Rio Ruiz, probably a notch better.  He'd immediately become my favorite player, but I don't think the Orioles will be in the bidding with that risk profile.

[DrungoHazewood]

One more observation.  The 2020 KBO scored the same number of runs a game as the 2019 International League (5.18 vs 5.16).  If you look at 24-year-olds with a .900ish OPS in the 2019 IL you mainly get players with .600-.700 MLB OPSes.  Plus Cavan Biggio who's close to .800.  Luis Guillorme, Dawel Lugo, Travis Demeritt, Oscar Mercado, Chance Sisco, Zack Collins, Christian Arroyo, Biggio.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

One more observation.  The 2020 KBO scored the same number of runs a game as the 2019 International League (5.18 vs 5.16).  If you look at 24-year-olds with a .900ish OPS in the 2019 IL you mainly get players with .600-.700 MLB OPSes.  Plus Cavan Biggio who's close to .800.  Luis Guillorme, Dawel Lugo, Travis Demeritt, Oscar Mercado, Chance Sisco, Zack Collins, Christian Arroyo, Biggio.

It’s certainly a dice roll. My point is that the payroll is so ridiculously low that they can afford taking a chance